Commodities Trading - Credit Risk

Alan Chong

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Commodities

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring prices on pollution curbs. This is one commodity that has defied the descending trend of other commodities recently such as Gold, Copper and Crude Oil.  The question is whether iron ore price momentum will continue into the second half of 2018. We track the benchmark iron ore with 62% Fe content (which is the industry standard specification assessed by Platts, Metal Bulletin &amp; The Steel Index) and expect iron ore prices to average USD55-60/ton for 2018.

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Breakout points in Iron ore is in focus and a key input in how China trades in Q118. Our base case for China remains bullish but we have seen some cracks develop as the Shanghai composite briefly slipped below 3,300 support (old resistance) but is now attempting to re take this key level. A 50 futures remains our top long bet in China/HK. HK price action within a very mature rising trend is also under scrutiny.Our short trade for H share materials stocks has for the most part played out and we…

Breakout points in Iron ore is in focus and a key input in how China trades in Q118. Our base case for China remains bullish but we have seen some cracks develop as the Shanghai composite briefly slipped below 3,300 support (old resistance) but is now attempting to re take this key level. A 50 futures remains our top long bet in China/HK. HK price action within a very mature rising trend is also under scrutiny.Our short trade for H share materials stocks has for the most part played out and we…

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case remains bullish for material sectors linked to our bullish China view assuming the Shanghai composite holds 3,300 pivot support but the tactical stance turned bearish starting with Jiangxi Copper followed by Maanshan Iron.We take a look at charts in Iron Ore and Copper from and see opposing tactical trends at this stage.Iron Ore, as shown below, just…

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case remains bullish for material sectors linked to our bullish China view assuming the Shanghai composite holds 3,300 pivot support but the tactical stance turned bearish starting with Jiangxi Copper followed by Maanshan Iron.We take a look at charts in Iron Ore and Copper from and see opposing tactical trends at this stage.Iron Ore, as shown below, just…

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Kelusa Asia Focus Funds

Equity Bottom-Up

It's been a roller coaster ride in iron ore this year.  Up 59% from January to a peak price of 70$/ton on April 21st followed by a 30% drop in May.  We've finally taken a breather for a week but stocks are quickly rallying into this short breather even though the underlying still continues to remain weak. First, let's look at how Fortescue ( FMG ) and iron ore have tracked each other until recently.  The correlation has been very strong till late May when iron ore prices fell but since then FMG…

It's been a roller coaster ride in iron ore this year.  Up 59% from January to a peak price of 70$/ton on April 21st followed by a 30% drop in May.  We've finally taken a breather for a week but stocks are quickly rallying into this short breather even though the underlying still continues to remain weak. First, let's look at how Fortescue ( FMG ) and iron ore have tracked each other until recently.  The correlation has been very strong till late May when iron ore prices fell but since then FMG…

Fortescue and Ore Price, Interesting Divergence

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges.<ul><li class="p1">Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and continuing their recent upward trend from a bottom of $37 per tonne in December.</li><li class="p1">Leveraged mining stocks are also up by double-digit levels this week, having already more than doubled since February.</li><li class="p1">We think this rally is unsustainable, as it is based on short-lived demand measures and near-term supply disruptions.</li><li class="p1">As temporary tightness in the market abates, iron ore prices should fall by more than half to $30 per tonne in the long term, driven by falling Chinese steel demand and rising scrap availability.</li></ul>Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr and Mathew Hodge

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges.Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and continuing their recent upward trend from a bottom of $37 per tonne in December.Leveraged mining stocks are also up by double-digit levels this week, having already more than doubled since February.We think this rally is unsustainable, as it is based on short-lived demand measures and near-term supply disruptions.As temporary tightness in the market abates, iron ore prices should fall by more than half to $30 per tonne in the long term, driven by falling Chinese steel demand and rising scrap availability.Analysts: David Wang, Daniel Rohr and Mathew Hodge

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Commodity Critic: Where Is the Iron Ore Price Heading?

We initiate our coverage of commodity research on Bondcritic and start with iron ore which has drawn investors' attention on its recent soaring...

Bondcritic

Iron Ore Breakout Levels

Breakout points in Iron ore is in focus and a key input in how China trades in Q118. Our base case for China remains bullish but we have seen some...

Thomas Schroeder

Iron Ore, Copper and H Material Fallout

There are some real under currents in terms of price action compared to supply trends in steel, Aluminum and copper in China. Our macro base case...

Thomas Schroeder

Fortescue and Ore Price, Interesting Divergence

It's been a roller coaster ride in iron ore this year. Up 59% from January to a peak price of 70$/ton on April 21st followed by a 30% drop in May....

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Rally Unsustainable

Temporary tightness should abate as demand falters and supply surges. Iron ore prices have surged to $69 per tonne, up 23% from last week and...

Morningstar, Inc.

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)