Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. </li>
<li>China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.</li>
<li>We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices were rangebound and maintained at over 100 USD/ton. In the last four years, they have been in a 95-130 USD/ton range. 
China TSF (Total Social Financing) disappointed the street with 1.4 trillion RMB (-24% YoY), compared to the street estimates of &gt;1.5 trillion RMB.
We believe that more significant lending numbers would catalyze the iron ore price, but till then, iron prices will remain stagnant at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>SGX Iron Ore Futures dropped to USD 96.71/ton, down USD 5.49/ton, hitting a low of USD 96.30/ton amid pressure from declining housing prices and industrial output in China.</li>
<li>Chinese portside inventories increased by 120k tons WoW to 148.51m tons last week, while average daily port discharge volumes rose by 131k tons WoW to 3.18m tons.</li>
<li>Despite weak economic data from China, SGX Iron Ore Futures may rebound in November-December as pre-Lunar New Year restocking boosts steel demand.</li>
</ul>


SGX Iron Ore Futures dropped to USD 96.71/ton, down USD 5.49/ton, hitting a low of USD 96.30/ton amid pressure from declining housing prices and industrial output in China.
Chinese portside inventories increased by 120k tons WoW to 148.51m tons last week, while average daily port discharge volumes rose by 131k tons WoW to 3.18m tons.
Despite weak economic data from China, SGX Iron Ore Futures may rebound in November-December as pre-Lunar New Year restocking boosts steel demand.


IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality

<ul>
<li>The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.</li>
<li>The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. </li>
<li>We provide updates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kumba-iron-ore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25094:1" rel="noopener">Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/champion-iron-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19734:1" rel="noopener">Champion Iron (CIA AU)</a>, which just released their results. </li>
</ul>


The iron ore price has breached the 95 USD/ton level thrice in the last 4 years for very brief periods, after which it has bounced and remained range-bound.
The jury is still out on the quantum of China's stimulus and lackluster property data, but positive indicators like the PMI beating at 50.1 (vs. expectations of 49.9) were encouraging. 
We provide updates for Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ) and Champion Iron (CIA AU), which just released their results. 


Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

<ul>
<li>China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.</li>
<li>China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.</li>
<li>Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.</li>
</ul>


China’s new fiscal package may total 10 trillion yuan, with 4 trillion allocated for special bonds to support land and property purchases through 2025.
China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in October, signaling the sector’s shift to growth after five months of contraction, supported by recent stimulus.
Elevated iron ore inventories, reaching near 2022 highs, are dampening import demand despite increased steel production and marginal improvements in PMI data.


[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

<ul>
<li>Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.</li>
<li>61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.</li>
<li>Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore futures prices dipped 0.60% in the week ending November 1, despite encouraging economic data out of China.
61.7% weekly volume drop in FEF options reflects lower investor positioning ahead of China's parliamentary meeting. Volume PCR declined to 0.52 with higher call interest at 105 strike.
Implied volatility in FEF options increased across contracts by November 1, particularly affecting November and January skews, which ended below their initial levels.


[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Australia

Iron ores are rocks and minerals from which metallic iron can be economically extracted. The ores are usually rich in iron oxides and vary in color from dark grey, bright yellow, deep purple, to rusty red. The iron itself is usually found in the form of magnetite (Fe3O4, 72.4% Fe), hematite (Fe2O3, 69.9% Fe), goethite (FeO(OH), 62.9% Fe), limonite (FeO(OH).n(H2O)) or siderite (FeCO3, 48.2% Fe).

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Iron Ore (IRON ORE COMDTY)

Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

We analyze the primary drivers of the iron ore price. This week, we cover the TSF (Total Social Financing) number, which has not shown any sign of...

Sameer Taneja

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality

SGX Iron Ore Futures drop due to China's economic woes, as housing prices decline further and industrial output drops but rebound on the horizon...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

China’s upcoming fiscal package could introduce 10 trillion yuan in support, focusing on real estate and local government debt. October PMI shows...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Iron Ore Tracker (25-Nov-2024): Waiting For Incremental Catalysts

We analyze the primary drivers of the iron ore price. This week, we cover the TSF (Total Social Financing) number, which has not shown any sign of...

Sameer Taneja

IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/46]: IO to Rise on Seasonality

​SGX Iron Ore Futures drop due to China's economic woes, as housing prices decline further and industrial output drops but rebound on the horizon...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tracker (11-Nov-2024): The China Stalemate, But 100 USD/Ton Level Maintained

Can the PMI beat of 50.1 (vs expectations 49.9) catalyse a recovery in the iron ore prices ? We eagerly look for the print on TSF next week which...

Sameer Taneja

[IO Fundamentals 2024/44] China Fiscal Plan and Rising IO Inventories

China’s upcoming fiscal package could introduce 10 trillion yuan in support, focusing on real estate and local government debt. October PMI shows...

Mint Finance

[IO Options Weekly 2024/44] Calls Dominant Ahead of China Parliament Meeting

Heading into the week of China's parliamentary meeting, FEF options volume dropped while IV rose. Options volume favored calls at the 105 strike...

Mint Finance

SGX Iron Ore Futures drop due to China's economic woes, as housing prices decline further and industrial output drops but rebound on the horizon...