Taiwan Tech Focused Asia L/S Analyst

Henry King

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. </li>
<li>Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.</li>
<li>VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.</li>
</ul>


1H22 is likely the peak for VGA card. Our checks with VGA card makers indicate VGA card price fell in January/February and likely to continue for the rest of 2022. 
Potential supply surge, demand decline, and price drop will all lead VGA market to trend south in 2H22.
VGA makers will be negatively impacted in 2H22. Gigabyte may be hit the most whereas Asustek may hit the least. Nvidia should also be hit at a certain degree.


The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> released record 2H21 results which indicate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ramp continues as expected. Management expects more of the same in FY22.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has a variety of issues but it will spend massive amounts of cash to keep up with rivals. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> remains a major beneficiary.</li>
<li>Fair value unchanged at 8 SGD, or 78% upside from current 4.5 SGD share price.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) released record 2H21 results which indicate Intel Corp (INTC US) ramp continues as expected. Management expects more of the same in FY22.

Intel Corp (INTC US) has a variety of issues but it will spend massive amounts of cash to keep up with rivals. AEM (AEM SP) remains a major beneficiary.
Fair value unchanged at 8 SGD, or 78% upside from current 4.5 SGD share price.


AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.</li>
<li>Our best performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/plover-bay-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24191:1" rel="noopener">Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK)</a> which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> down over 60%.</li>
<li>Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.</li>
</ul>


The 2024 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" showed three stocks with positive performance and two with losses.
Our best performer was Plover Bay Technologies (1523 HK) which increased 157% in FY24. While our worst performer was AEM (AEM SP) down over 60%.
Our 2025 vintage of top ideas is heavily copper-focused as we continue to believe the supply crunch in copper is real and set to get worse.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role</li>
<li>He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O'Buckley, effective immediately</li>
<li>Mr. O'Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. </li>
</ul>


In a surprise move, Intel announced that its foundry chief Stuart Pann is to retire from the company effective end of May after just over one year in the role
He will be replaced by former IBM, Globalfoundries and Marvell executive Kevin O'Buckley, effective immediately
Mr. O'Buckley now has the dubious distinction of being the third leader of IFS in as many years. 


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Intel Corporation has exhibited sturdy Q1 outcomes, with revenue delivery being on par and the Earnings Per Share (EPS) exceeding the set guidance.</li><li>This demonstrates the company's growth in revenue generation and effective cost management strategy.</li><li>However, the trends for the first half of the year were moderately weaker than originally forecasted, triggered by some near-term supply constraints.</li></ul>

Intel Corporation has exhibited sturdy Q1 outcomes, with revenue delivery being on par and the Earnings Per Share (EPS) exceeding the set guidance.This demonstrates the company's growth in revenue generation and effective cost management strategy.However, the trends for the first half of the year were moderately weaker than originally forecasted, triggered by some near-term supply constraints.

Intel Corporation: An Analysis Of AI and Accelerator as Revenue Drivers for Intel

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

AEM continues to deliver solid results. FY22 guidance points to another record year for the company. AEM remains major beneficiary of Intel Capex...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Intel's Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

Intel foundry gets a new chief, its third in as many years. The speed of the transition suggests that this was not a long & carefully planned out...

William Keating

Intel Corporation: An Analysis Of AI and Accelerator as Revenue Drivers for Intel

Intel Corporation has exhibited sturdy Q1 outcomes, with revenue delivery being on par and the Earnings Per Share (EPS) exceeding the set...

Baptista Research

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The Current Huge Gap of VGA Card Demand over Supply May Reverse in 2H22/2023

While Taiwanese VGA card makers reported record sales in January and NVIDIA reported record quarterly revenue for 4QFY22, the outlook of the VGA...

Henry King

AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

AEM continues to deliver solid results. FY22 guidance points to another record year for the company. AEM remains major beneficiary of Intel Capex...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2024...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2025

​2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Intel's Foundry Chief Runs For The Hills

Intel foundry gets a new chief, its third in as many years. The speed of the transition suggests that this was not a long & carefully planned out...

William Keating

Intel Corporation: An Analysis Of AI and Accelerator as Revenue Drivers for Intel

Intel Corporation has exhibited sturdy Q1 outcomes, with revenue delivery being on par and the Earnings Per Share (EPS) exceeding the set...

Baptista Research

2024's "5 High Conviction Ideas" had mixed results, with Plover Bay Technologies soaring 157% while AEM Holdings plummeted over 60%. 2025's focus...