Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q2’23 revenues of $12.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up ~10% QoQ and handily beating the guided midpoint of $12 billion.</li>
<li>Q3 outlook for $13.4 billion at the midpoint, up 3.8% sequentially</li>
<li>Mr Gelsinger envisages a centrino-like era of AI-enabled PCs, starting with Meteor Lake in H2'23. Is this realistic?</li>
</ul>


Q2’23 revenues of $12.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up ~10% QoQ and handily beating the guided midpoint of $12 billion.
Q3 outlook for $13.4 billion at the midpoint, up 3.8% sequentially
Mr Gelsinger envisages a centrino-like era of AI-enabled PCs, starting with Meteor Lake in H2'23. Is this realistic?


Intel. PC Recovery Nigh As Incentives No Longer Required To Shift Client CPUs

China New Economy Equity Analyst, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Robert McKay

China New Economy Equity Analyst

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);</li>
<li>The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;</li>
<li>The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in <strong>disfavor</strong> of China. </li>
</ul>


In the past four quarters, Chinese companies bought 65+ ArF (Argon Fluoride) Immersion lithography machines, some capable of overlay precision as fine as 1.5nm overlay for Self-Aligned Double/Quadruple/Octuple Patterning (SAD/Q/OP);
The race is between Chinese foundries to put these lithography machines to meet the raging demand of AI, which looks optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term challenges;
The race is also among the global semiconductor industry to meet the demand for testing the limit of AI's scaling law. So far the balance tips in disfavor of China. 


China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  </li>
<li>While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case</li>
<li>On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!</li>
</ul>


Intel, AMD &amp; Qualcomm all lined up in support of Microsoft's CoPilot+ PC program during the Computex 2024 keynotes last week.  
While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how &amp; why this is the case
On Friday June 7, reacting to customer feedback, Microsoft announced that their CoPilot+ Recall feature will now become disabled out of the box by default. Ouch!


Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment</li>
<li>PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle </li>
<li>ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x </li>
</ul>


Taiwan Tech Rallies Along With Rebound In Global Tech; Hon Hai, Asustek Top Gainers; KYEC a Top Loser After Announcing China Market Divestment
PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle 
ASMedia GDR Early Look - Momentum Has Been Strong, and Raising Would Grow Its Cash Base Almost 6x 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

<ul>
<li>Mediatek Enjoying a Massive Rebound for its Mobile Phone Segment; Most Optimistic About High-End Smartphone Demand</li>
<li>New AI Data Center Growth Driver on the Horizon; Recent Investment in U.S. AI Server Chip Startup</li>
<li>Recent Share Price Dip is an Accumulation Opportunity; We Rate Mediatek as a Structural Long</li>
</ul>


Mediatek Enjoying a Massive Rebound for its Mobile Phone Segment; Most Optimistic About High-End Smartphone Demand
New AI Data Center Growth Driver on the Horizon; Recent Investment in U.S. AI Server Chip Startup
Recent Share Price Dip is an Accumulation Opportunity; We Rate Mediatek as a Structural Long


Mediatek Seeing Massive Rebound in Mobile; Major AI Data Center Driver on the Horizon

United States

Applied Materials, Inc. develops, manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor wafer fabrication equipment and related spare parts for the worldwide semiconductor industry.  The Company's customers include semiconductor wafer and integrated circuit manufacturers, flat panel liquid crystal displays, solar photovoltaic cells and modules and other electronic devices manufacturers.

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

KLA-Tencor Corporation manufactures yield management and process monitoring systems for the semiconductor industry.  The Company's systems are used to analyze product and process quality at critical steps in the manufacture of circuits and provide feedback so that fabrication problems can be identified. KLA-Tencor operates sales, service, and application centers worldwide.

Lam Research Corporation manufactures, markets, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the making of integrated circuits.  The Company's products are used to deposit special films on a silicon wafer and etch away portions of various films to create a circuit design.  Lam sells its products around the world.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Microchip Technology Incorporated designs, manufactures, and markets microcontrollers, related mixed-signal and memory products, and application development systems for high-volume embedded control applications. The Company also designs, develops, and markets linear/mixed-signal, power management, and thermal management products.

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

Analog Devices, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits used in analog and digital signal processing.  The Company's products are used in communications, computer, industrial, instrumentation, military/aerospace, automotive, and high-performance consumer electronics applications.  Analog Devices sells its products worldwide.

Tokyo Electron Limited manufactures and sells industrial electronics products, such as semiconductor manufacturing machines, computer system, and electronic components.  The Company products are sold in US, Taiwan, and others as well as in Japan.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

MediaTek Inc. is a fabless semiconductor company for wireless communications and digital multimedia solutions. The company provides SOC system solutions for wireless communications, high-definition TV, optical storage, DVD and Blu-ray products.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

NXP Semiconductors NV operates as a global semiconductor company. The Company designs semiconductors and software for mobile communications, consumer electronics, security applications, in-car entertainment, and networking.  NXP offers its products to the automotive, identification, wireless infrastructure, lighting, mobile, and computing applications.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells silicon rods and silicon wafers. The Company's main products include 6 inch, 6.5 inch and 8 inch monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers.

LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Intel. PC Recovery Nigh As Incentives No Longer Required To Shift Client CPUs

Q2’23 revenues $12.9 billion, -15% YoY but up ~+10% QoQ, handily beating guidance. No more incentives to shore up client market share. Is an AI...

William Keating

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's CoPilot+ support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how & why this is the case...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek Seeing Massive Rebound in Mobile; Major AI Data Center Driver on the Horizon

Mediatek is enjoying strong growth in its mobile phone segment; with notable strength in high-end smartphones. The company could re-rate as its...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Intel. PC Recovery Nigh As Incentives No Longer Required To Shift Client CPUs

Q2’23 revenues $12.9 billion, -15% YoY but up ~+10% QoQ, handily beating guidance. No more incentives to shore up client market share. Is an AI...

William Keating

China's Near-Term Semiconductor Bottleneck Isn't ASML

China's semiconductor bottleneck isn't lithography tools in the near term, it is etchers. We see ST pressure, MT opportunity and LT challenge from...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Computex 2024 & The Drama Of The CoPilot+ PC Launch

While Qualcomm is all in and AMD mostly too, Intel's CoPilot+ support is more passive agressive in nature. We outline how & why this is the case...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Hon Hai New All-Time Highs; Asustek Soars; Leading Chip Testing Firm Exits China

​Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Mediatek Seeing Massive Rebound in Mobile; Major AI Data Center Driver on the Horizon

​Mediatek is enjoying strong growth in its mobile phone segment; with notable strength in high-end smartphones. The company could re-rate as its...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan tech gains alongside global tech, with Hon Hai and Asustek leading. MSFT's next CoPilot expected to drive AI PC upgrades. ASMedia GDR shows...

Mediatek is enjoying strong growth in its mobile phone segment; with notable strength in high-end smartphones. The company could re-rate as its...