Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.</li>
<li>In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM's revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.</li>
<li>Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. </li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) released 3Q24 numbers and bumped its guidance higher as its key customer pulled forward some orders.
In 2025 it will be the first year where customers outside of Intel will make up the majority of AEM's revenues. This is a big milestone for AEM.
Continued business from Intel and growth in new key accounts means we should expect FY25 revenue growth. Guidance for FY25 will come by February 2025. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.</li>
<li>Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/formfactor-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20309:1" rel="noopener">Formfactor Inc (FORM US)</a>. </li>
<li>Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO as of 30th of May 2024. The new CEO officially starts 1st of July 2024.
Amy Leong will take over from Chandran Nair as she leaves her Chief Commercial Officer role at Formfactor Inc (FORM US). 
Given the weak business results and inventory management issues it should be expected that Mrs Leong would want to clean the proverbial house before she starts in her new role.


AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> released record 2H21 results which indicate <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ramp continues as expected. Management expects more of the same in FY22.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> has a variety of issues but it will spend massive amounts of cash to keep up with rivals. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM (AEM SP)</a> remains a major beneficiary.</li>
<li>Fair value unchanged at 8 SGD, or 78% upside from current 4.5 SGD share price.</li>
</ul>



AEM (AEM SP) released record 2H21 results which indicate Intel Corp (INTC US) ramp continues as expected. Management expects more of the same in FY22.

Intel Corp (INTC US) has a variety of issues but it will spend massive amounts of cash to keep up with rivals. AEM (AEM SP) remains a major beneficiary.
Fair value unchanged at 8 SGD, or 78% upside from current 4.5 SGD share price.


AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. </li>
<li>Our best performer was unloved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mongolian-mining-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4382:1" rel="noopener">Mongolian Mining (975 HK)</a> which returned 234% even beating <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.</li>
<li>Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.</li>
</ul>


The 2023 vintage of "5 High Conviction Ideas" was commodity heavy with 4 of our 5 picks coming from this sector. Three out of five declined between 15-25%. 
Our best performer was unloved Mongolian Mining (975 HK) which returned 234% even beating NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) YTD performance.  Miracles happen: Coal mining beats AI.
Our 2024 vintage of top ideas for the year will hopefully have a higher hit ratio. See below for more details which are our five high conviction ideas for 2024.


Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

<ul>
<li>AEM reported strong 1Q22 results (+226% YoY) and raised its FY22 revenue guidance to 700-750M SGD. <strong>AEM management continues to believe they are in a multi-year ramp-up.</strong> </li>
<li>While the US tech sector is imploding left and right AEM is a very specific story linked to Intel's CAPEX binge. Expect momentum to remain in FY22 and into FY23.</li>
<li>Fair Value of 8 SGD remains unchanged (based on 20x 0.40 FY22 EPS), or 62% upside from the current 4.92 SGD share price.</li>
</ul>


AEM reported strong 1Q22 results (+226% YoY) and raised its FY22 revenue guidance to 700-750M SGD. AEM management continues to believe they are in a multi-year ramp-up. 
While the US tech sector is imploding left and right AEM is a very specific story linked to Intel's CAPEX binge. Expect momentum to remain in FY22 and into FY23.
Fair Value of 8 SGD remains unchanged (based on 20x 0.40 FY22 EPS), or 62% upside from the current 4.92 SGD share price.


AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel's Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

Singapore

AEM Holdings Limited designs and manufactures semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related tooling parts and precision machining of components for semiconductor industry.  The Company also manufactures and distributes electronics, engineering, chemical and related products. AEM provides engineering services.

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AEM (AEM SP)

Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

AEM Holdings announced new CEO Amy Leong, who will start on July 1, 2024. She is likely to kitchen sink results and the outlook as she takes control.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

AEM continues to deliver solid results. FY22 guidance points to another record year for the company. AEM remains major beneficiary of Intel Capex...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel's Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

AEM reported record 1Q22 results and in the conference call reiterated it is looking for a multi-year ramp. This ramp is driven by its key client...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

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Aem: Hoping for Better 2025

​AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM Holdings: New CEO = One Final Kitchen Sink in 2Q24?

​AEM Holdings announced new CEO Amy Leong, who will start on July 1, 2024. She is likely to kitchen sink results and the outlook as she takes control.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM Holdings: 2H21 Revenue Acceleration to Continue into FY22. Fair Value Maintained at 8 SGD

AEM continues to deliver solid results. FY22 guidance points to another record year for the company. AEM remains major beneficiary of Intel Capex...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Overview of My Winners and Losers in 2023...and 5 High Conviction Ideas Going Into 2024

Our stand-out performer in FY23 was little loved Mongolia Mining. For FY24 we provide five new names which we think can perform strongly.

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM: Increased FY22 Revenue Guidance; Riding on Intel's Capex Binge into Multi-Year Ramp

AEM reported record 1Q22 results and in the conference call reiterated it is looking for a multi-year ramp. This ramp is driven by its key client...

Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM increased guidance for FY24 signals a shift towards revenue from non-Intel customers, setting the stage for growth in FY25.

AEM Holdings announced new CEO Amy Leong, who will start on July 1, 2024. She is likely to kitchen sink results and the outlook as she takes control.