Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that have gummed up the banking system for several years is accelerating.First, <a href="http://www.livemint.com/Industry/TECdaxHBGkvi0FRnQuorFL/RBI-identifies-40-more-large-loan-defaulter-accounts-for-cle.html?li_source=LI&amp;li_medium=news_rec" target="_blank">press reports</a> indicate RBI is continuing to use its new powers to push defaulters into bankruptcy and identified a further 40 large loan cases where banks will be pushed towards early resolution. When combined with the 12 cases initially identified by RBI in June and where…

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that have gummed up the banking system for several years is accelerating.First, press reports indicate RBI is continuing to use its new powers to push defaulters into bankruptcy and identified a further 40 large loan cases where banks will be pushed towards early resolution. When combined with the 12 cases initially identified by RBI in June and where…

India: NPA Resolution Gains Further Momentum

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

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Technical Analysis

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro short covering. Immediate pivot lies at 94.20/23 and would induce further USD short covering.Two factors that would see accelerated USD short covering are 1) A spike in yield 2) Equity fallout lending support to the USD particularly against Asian and EM FX.Key pivot points for the USD are: 1) T-Note 125.90 is a key pivot for yield 2) USD/JPY 111 for…

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 6-berth Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed its key policy rate - the repo rate - by 25bp to 6% as had been largely expected yesterday; its first policy move since last October. But the decision to re-engage with rate cuts however is unlikely to mark the start of a series of further eases. Importantly, the MPC maintained a neutral bias after the decision, indicating no tilt to policy moving forward. Notably, the MPC is increasingly divided. Ravindra Dholakia -…

Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 6-berth Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed its key policy rate - the repo rate - by 25bp to 6% as had been largely expected yesterday; its first policy move since last October. But the decision to re-engage with rate cuts however is unlikely to mark the start of a series of further eases. Importantly, the MPC maintained a neutral bias after the decision, indicating no tilt to policy moving forward. Notably, the MPC is increasingly divided. Ravindra Dholakia -…

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

-Although the RBI is likely to admit its policy error and cut its policy rate by 25bp on 2nd August, the MPC will still be behind the curve (as inflation is far below its "4% YoY in the next 5 years" target). With inflation at record lows and industrial growth desultory, India needs a 50bp cut now, but is unlikely to get it. -The sharp widening in the trade deficit over the past half-year (with imports surging despite the absence of any rebound in domestic demand) suggests that the rupee has…

-Although the RBI is likely to admit its policy error and cut its policy rate by 25bp on 2nd August, the MPC will still be behind the curve (as inflation is far below its "4% YoY in the next 5 years" target). With inflation at record lows and industrial growth desultory, India needs a 50bp cut now, but is unlikely to get it. -The sharp widening in the trade deficit over the past half-year (with imports surging despite the absence of any rebound in domestic demand) suggests that the rupee has…

India: Cyclical Downturn Is Getting Worse as the RBI Sleeps; the Rupee Needs to Depreciate

India

The Indian rupee is the official currency of India. 

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India: Turn Up The Base (Effect)

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time:...

Richard Iley

India: NPA Resolution Gains Further Momentum

Three recent developments signal that the progress the Indian authorities have finally started to make in tackling the non-performing assets that...

Richard Iley

USD Cover Pressure with Weaker EM FX Linked to Equity Peaks

DXY - Long DXY (as a Euro hedge) from 93.00 (via UUP) with a stop below 92. Corrective rise targets 95.30/50 with scope to 96.50 stemming from Euro...

Thomas Schroeder

RBI: Curb Your Enthusiasm

Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 6-berth Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) trimmed its key policy rate - the repo rate - by 25bp to 6% as had been...

Richard Iley

India: Cyclical Downturn Is Getting Worse as the RBI Sleeps; the Rupee Needs to Depreciate

-Although the RBI is likely to admit its policy error and cut its policy rate by 25bp on 2nd August, the MPC will still be behind the curve (as...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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