Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

As Nils Bohr quipped, making predictions is difficult, especially about the future! One prediction however has been relatively easy for some time: Indian CPI inflation is set to climb, possibly sharply, in the next 3-6 months. As previously detailed, there have been two key disinflationary drivers which propelled CPI to an all-time low of a now-revised 1.46% y/y in June: unprecedented deflation in volatile vegetables' and pulses' prices and sliding core inflation in the aftermath of…

India: Turn Up The Base (Effect)