HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>There’re rumor that Akeso’s AK112 and AK104 2024 revenue is RMB300 million and RMB1.5-1.6 billion respectively. Sales of AK104 may be below expectations, so Akeso decided to enter NRDL reimbursement.</li>
<li>Regardless of whether there is a takeover offer, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5bn-US$15bn based on solid fundamentals. This deal is “a test” for the management of Genscript.</li>
<li>Current stock price of InnoCare just reflects its essence. If no new catalysts (e.g. breakthroughs in clinical data, new licensing agreement, etc.), we are not optimistic about the prospects of InnoCare.</li>
</ul>


There’re rumor that Akeso’s AK112 and AK104 2024 revenue is RMB300 million and RMB1.5-1.6 billion respectively. Sales of AK104 may be below expectations, so Akeso decided to enter NRDL reimbursement.
Regardless of whether there is a takeover offer, reasonable valuation of Legend Bio is between US$12.5bn-US$15bn based on solid fundamentals. This deal is “a test” for the management of Genscript.
Current stock price of InnoCare just reflects its essence. If no new catalysts (e.g. breakthroughs in clinical data, new licensing agreement, etc.), we are not optimistic about the prospects of InnoCare.


China Healthcare Weekly (July.21)-Rumor About Akeso, Takeover Bid for Legend Bio, InnoCare's Trouble

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a> announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-fosun-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8045:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)</a>’s discretion. </li>
<li>Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.</li>
<li>The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. </li>
</ul>



Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK) announced that the share alternative pre-condition was satisfied. However, the share alternative offer remains at Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) (2196 HK)’s discretion. 
Loyal Valley Capital (LVC), a pre-IPO investor, emerged as a substantial shareholder on 10 July, the deadline for submitting letters of interest for the share alternative offer.
The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is taken by QIA and LVC. 


Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

<ul>
<li>Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.</li>
<li>There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.</li>
<li>YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-pharmaceutical-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22928:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Pharmaceutical</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-pharmaceuticals-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:228:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Pharmaceuticals</a>, we wouldn't be too surprised.</li>
</ul>


Retail pharmacies experienced performance decline in April and May. Due to negative policies, retail pharmacies will experience industry clearance. Therefore, we do not recommend investors to bottom-fish related stocks now.
There is a logic to biotech's performance from 2023 to present.The clearer the path of sustainable development, the better the stock price performance. They can be divided into three types.
YSB faces big risks and the outlook is not optimistic. If the final valuation of the Company is lower than China Resources Pharmaceutical and Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, we wouldn't be too surprised.


China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 9th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight the weekly Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>InnoCare recorded total revenue of RMB188mn in 2Q23, including RMB169mn sales from orelabrutinib (+12% QoQ, +52% YoY).</li><li>In 1H23, the sales of orelabrutinib totalled RMB321mn, +48% YoY, accounting for 33% of our previous full-year estimate.</li><li>In comparison, BGNE’s zanubrutinib achieved US$97mn revenue in China in 1H23, +38% YoY.</li><li>InnoCare’s GP margin (vs total revenue) improved significantly from 77% in 1Q23 to 82% in 2Q23. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

InnoCare recorded total revenue of RMB188mn in 2Q23, including RMB169mn sales from orelabrutinib (+12% QoQ, +52% YoY).In 1H23, the sales of orelabrutinib totalled RMB321mn, +48% YoY, accounting for 33% of our previous full-year estimate.In comparison, BGNE’s zanubrutinib achieved US$97mn revenue in China in 1H23, +38% YoY.InnoCare’s GP margin (vs total revenue) improved significantly from 77% in 1Q23 to 82% in 2Q23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

InnoCare Pharma (9969 HK) – Consistent Results of Orelabrutinib for MS

China

InnoCare Pharma Limited researches, develops, manufactures, and distributes pharmaceuticals. The Company produces antibiotic drugs, respiratory drugs, cardiovascular drugs, vitamin tablets, health care drugs, and other related products. InnoCare Pharma markets its products throughout China.

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InnoCare Pharma Ltd (9969 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (July.21)-Rumor About Akeso, Takeover Bid for Legend Bio, InnoCare's Trouble

Revenue of Akeso's AK112 and AK104 in 2024 may fall short of expectations. Legend Bio got a takeover bid, which is "a test" for Genscript....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

InnoCare Pharma (9969 HK) – Consistent Results of Orelabrutinib for MS

n 1H23, the sales of orelabrutinib totalled RMB321mn, +48% YoY, accounting for 33% of our previous full-year estimate. In comparison, BGNE’s...

CMB International

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China Healthcare Weekly (July.21)-Rumor About Akeso, Takeover Bid for Legend Bio, InnoCare's Trouble

​Revenue of Akeso's AK112 and AK104 in 2024 may fall short of expectations. Legend Bio got a takeover bid, which is "a test" for Genscript....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Henlius (2696 HK): Dilemma as the Scrip Pre-Condition Met and a Substantial Shareholder Emerges

The likely scenario is that the offer succeeds as the co-founders enter rollover arrangements, and a share alternative is introduced, which is...

Arun George

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun23)-Retail Pharmacy's Dilemma, Logic to Biotech's Stock Price,YSB's Risk

​Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Feb 9th): Tencent

We have analyzed southbound Hong Kong connect flows in the past week and highlighted Hong Kong connect flows for Tencent.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

InnoCare Pharma (9969 HK) – Consistent Results of Orelabrutinib for MS

n 1H23, the sales of orelabrutinib totalled RMB321mn, +48% YoY, accounting for 33% of our previous full-year estimate. In comparison, BGNE’s...

CMB International

Revenue of Akeso's AK112 and AK104 in 2024 may fall short of expectations. Legend Bio got a takeover bid, which is "a test" for Genscript....

Retail pharmacies facing industry clearance due to negative policies.Biotech stock performance tied to sustainable development path. YSB faces...