Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-500-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22886" rel="noopener">S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.</li>
<li>Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.</li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX), Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX EQUITY) and Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) all have elevated implied vols vs their peers and vs historical observations for October.

NIFTY Index (NIFTY INDEX) , S&amp;P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) and S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)  implied vols are on the low end of what is typically realized in October.
Most markets see price weakness in the 3rd week of the month with realized volatility underperforming over the back half of the month.


EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Infosys (INFO) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD4.9b, growth of 3.1% QoQ/3.3% YoY CC vs. our estimate of 3.0% QoQ CC.</li><li>EBIT margins stood at 21.1% vs. our estimates of 20.3%. EBIT grew 4.4% QoQ/4.5% YoY to INR86b (est. INR83b).</li><li>PAT came in at INR65b, up 2.2% QoQ/4.7% YoY, in line with our estimate of INR66b. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infosys (INFO) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD4.9b, growth of 3.1% QoQ/3.3% YoY CC vs. our estimate of 3.0% QoQ CC.EBIT margins stood at 21.1% vs. our estimates of 20.3%. EBIT grew 4.4% QoQ/4.5% YoY to INR86b (est. INR83b).PAT came in at INR65b, up 2.2% QoQ/4.7% YoY, in line with our estimate of INR66b. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Sharekhan

Sharekhan

Sharekhan is India's leading broking house providing services from easy online trading, research to wide array of financial products. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>PAT at Rs. 6,918 crore (up 18% y-o-y/ 15% q-o-q) saw a large beat due to reversal of tax provisions (~Rs. 550 crore, one off) along with higher treasury gains partially offset by higher credit cost (~89 bps as % of avg. loans vs 84 bps q-o-q).</li><li>The bank chose to set aside additional contingent provisions aggregating to Rs. 520 crore against the tax provisions reversal.</li><li>On the asset quality front, although net slippages were lower q-o-q but write-offs were significantly higher (largely from unsecured retail segment with few CBG &amp; wholesale accounts). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PAT at Rs. 6,918 crore (up 18% y-o-y/ 15% q-o-q) saw a large beat due to reversal of tax provisions (~Rs. 550 crore, one off) along with higher treasury gains partially offset by higher credit cost (~89 bps as % of avg. loans vs 84 bps q-o-q).The bank chose to set aside additional contingent provisions aggregating to Rs. 520 crore against the tax provisions reversal.On the asset quality front, although net slippages were lower q-o-q but write-offs were significantly higher (largely from unsecured retail segment with few CBG &amp; wholesale accounts). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.</li>
<li>The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.</li>
<li>Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.</li>
</ul>


This strategy exploits relative value in implied volatilities and combines it with a long Nifty 50 vs. short Nikkei 225 directional view over a period of two months.
The strategy performs well if the Nifty 50 rises and outperforms the Nikkei 225. If both indices decline, neither profit nor loss is incurred.
Leverage increases both the strategy's payoff and probability of success.


EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Revenue growth momentum impacted: The company saw a strong recovery in the BFSI and other verticals, and management anticipates continued demand momentum for Gen AI, along with enhanced client engagement.</li><li>This suggests the potential for improved realizations in the coming periods.</li><li>Robust Deal wins: The company’s TCV remained robust and exceeded our expectations, with deal wins totalling $2.4 Bn in Q2FY25.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Revenue growth momentum impacted: The company saw a strong recovery in the BFSI and other verticals, and management anticipates continued demand momentum for Gen AI, along with enhanced client engagement.This suggests the potential for improved realizations in the coming periods.Robust Deal wins: The company’s TCV remained robust and exceeded our expectations, with deal wins totalling $2.4 Bn in Q2FY25.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Infosys Ltd - Broad-Based Growth; Management Upgrades Guidance for FY25

India

Infosys Limited provides IT consulting and software services, including e-business, program management and supply chain solutions. The Group's services include application development, product co-development, and system implementation and system engineering. Infosys targets businesses specializing in the insurance, banking, telecommunication and manufacturing sectors.

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Infosys Ltd Sp Adr (INFY US)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Infosys - Guidance Upgrade a Dampener

Infosys (INFO) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD4.9b, growth of 3.1% QoQ/3.3% YoY CC vs. our estimate of 3.0% QoQ CC. EBIT margins stood at 21.1% vs....

Motilal Oswal

Infosys Ltd - Strong H1, Guidance Raised

PAT at Rs. 6,918 crore (up 18% y-o-y/ 15% q-o-q) saw a large beat due to reversal of tax provisions (~Rs. 550 crore, one off) along with higher...

Sharekhan

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys Ltd - Broad-Based Growth; Management Upgrades Guidance for FY25

The company saw a strong recovery in the BFSI and other verticals, and management anticipates continued demand momentum for Gen AI, along with...

Axis Direct

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Market Cap (USDm)

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Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Asia Monthly Vol Roadmap: Elevated IV's in CSI300 and Hang Seng Present Tactical Opportunity

​Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...

John Ley

Infosys - Guidance Upgrade a Dampener

Infosys (INFO) reported 2QFY25 revenue of USD4.9b, growth of 3.1% QoQ/3.3% YoY CC vs. our estimate of 3.0% QoQ CC. EBIT margins stood at 21.1% vs....

Motilal Oswal

Infosys Ltd - Strong H1, Guidance Raised

PAT at Rs. 6,918 crore (up 18% y-o-y/ 15% q-o-q) saw a large beat due to reversal of tax provisions (~Rs. 550 crore, one off) along with higher...

Sharekhan

EQD | Long Nifty 50 Vs. Short Nikkei 225 - A Relative Value Option Strategy with a Kicker

Option strategy: exploit relative value in implied volatilities combined with directional positioning for a leveraged payoff in a long Nifty 50 vs....

Gaudenz Schneider

Infosys Ltd - Broad-Based Growth; Management Upgrades Guidance for FY25

The company saw a strong recovery in the BFSI and other verticals, and management anticipates continued demand momentum for Gen AI, along with...

Axis Direct

Implied volatility levels across key Asian indices present several tactical opportunities this month for outright or pairs trades...