IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Cisarua Mountain Dairy / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)</a>/Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. Shares will list on 6 December.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/cisarua-mountain-dairy-cimory-ipo-initiation-creamy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:61066" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy</a>, we noted Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation.</li>
<li>Our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at the low end of the IPO price range.</li>
</ul>



Cisarua Mountain Dairy (1939092D IJ)/Cimory is seeking to raise up to IDR3,761 billion ($265 million) at an IPO price range of IDR2,780-3,160 per share. Shares will list on 6 December.
In Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO Initiation: Creamy, we noted Cimory is delivering strong growth in both its operating segments, rising margins and cash generation.
Our valuation analysis suggests that we would participate at the low end of the IPO price range.


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO: Valuation Insights

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> remains a high-quality proxy to the rising demand for dairy products in Indonesia, with a nearly 40% market share of the UHT market through its Ultra Milk brand.  The company is also the number one producer in ready to drink (RTD) tea drinks in cartons where it has a 77% market share with various different carton packaging options. </p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> also has various tolling agreements for the production of powdered milk and UHT drinks, with customers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unilever-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:231:1" rel="noopener">Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ)</a>.</p>
<p>The industry fundamentals in Indonesia are strong with relatively low rates of consumption per capita versus other South-East Asian Countries. has a low per capita consumption of milk versus its South-East Asian neighbours</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> continues to source more than half its powdered milk requirements from overseas in the form of powdered skimmed milk and whole milk but is increasing sourcing its requirements locally together with building up its own dairy herds</p>
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<p>The company continued to face some pressure from COVID-19 restrictions in 1H2021 but the more positive trend that started in 1Q2021 continued into 2Q2021, especially for its core flavoured milk and carton tea products.</p>
<p>From a distribution perspective, the company continues to push more into the under-penetrated areas of Kalimantan and Sumatra. It is also increasingly helping distributors to secure financing and achieving IT connectivity with all distributors. </p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ultrajaya-milk-industry-trading-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13892:1" rel="noopener">Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ)</a> is also continuing to focus on developing new products and has recently signed a JV with Ito En. It will also consider launching yoghurt drinks and pasteurised milk products, when the time is right, as we move into a post-COVID world. The company remains one of Indonesia's least appreciated consumer staple players, with super-strong brands and a good long term growth track record as well as good governance. </section>
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Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) remains a high-quality proxy to the rising demand for dairy products in Indonesia, with a nearly 40% market share of the UHT market through its Ultra Milk brand.  The company is also the number one producer in ready to drink (RTD) tea drinks in cartons where it has a 77% market share with various different carton packaging options. 

Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) also has various tolling agreements for the production of powdered milk and UHT drinks, with customers such as Unilever Indonesia (UNVR IJ).
The industry fundamentals in Indonesia are strong with relatively low rates of consumption per capita versus other South-East Asian Countries. has a low per capita consumption of milk versus its South-East Asian neighbours

Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) continues to source more than half its powdered milk requirements from overseas in the form of powdered skimmed milk and whole milk but is increasing sourcing its requirements locally together with building up its own dairy herds



The company continued to face some pressure from COVID-19 restrictions in 1H2021 but the more positive trend that started in 1Q2021 continued into 2Q2021, especially for its core flavoured milk and carton tea products.
From a distribution perspective, the company continues to push more into the under-penetrated areas of Kalimantan and Sumatra. It is also increasingly helping distributors to secure financing and achieving IT connectivity with all distributors. 


Ultrajaya Milk Industry &amp; Trading (ULTJ IJ) is also continuing to focus on developing new products and has recently signed a JV with Ito En. It will also consider launching yoghurt drinks and pasteurised milk products, when the time is right, as we move into a post-COVID world. The company remains one of Indonesia's least appreciated consumer staple players, with super-strong brands and a good long term growth track record as well as good governance. 












Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - Growth in a Small Carton

<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> released a strong set of 2Q2021 results with +55.7% growth in TPV bringing 1H2021 TPV (Total Processing Value) growth to +54%. It reported a +37% YoY growth in revenue for 2Q2021.</section>
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<section class="figure"> The company's Mitra business continued to be the key driver, accounting for 48% of TPV in 2Q2021 versus 22% a year ago, with a growth rate of +292% YoY in 2Q2021.</section>
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<section class="figure">There was some reduction in the take-rate in 2Q2021, which some analysts may focus on but this was explained as due to a change in product mix and temporary. We address concerns regarding the take rate later but they seem overdone.</section>
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<section class="figure">Mitra Bukalapak continues to be the main growth engine for the company, with 2Q2021 Mitra TPV increasing by +237% YoY, to IDR14.2tn.</section>
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<p>Mitra Bukalapak’s contribution margin after S&amp;M cost improved from -1.0% of TPV in FY2020 to -0.5% of TPV in Mitra’s operating loss as a ratio to TPV improved from 1.2% in FY20 to 0.6% in 1H2021.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> management re-iterated its strategy to continue to help enhance the performance of its Mitra's and sellers on the platform following a more of a Shopify model than one like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amazon-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1" rel="noopener">Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US)</a>.</section>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> maintains that around 90% of its Mitra customers use only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> given that it addresses many uses and allows them to make more money. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> and Shopee are much more reliant on aggressive capital to expand, which is not an effective long-term strategy for Mitra customers. It is also difficult to discount FMCG products for any length of time given that principles keep a handle on price levels.</p>
<p>Management also revealed that its first collaboration with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> will focus on GrabMart, providing fresh food products for GrabMart's restaurant customers but more collaboration is expected on an incremental basis going forward. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> management is expecting annual growth in TPV of +50%-75% per annum, with 2022 seen as a potentially even stronger year, with better purchasing power coming through post-pandemic and greater vaccination levels.</p>
<p>The company expects to break even at the EBITDA level by 2023 under current expectations. This accounts for rising revenues, growing take-rates, and lower S&amp;M costs. We continue to take a positive view on the outlook on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bukalapak" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33575:1" rel="noopener">Bukalapak (BUKA IJ)</a> and do not see the short-term contraction in the take-rate as an issue.  Valuations look quite high relative to peers but the company is much closer to breakeven versus peers and given its predominantly 1P model, revenue is not far off the gross profit. </p>
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Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) released a strong set of 2Q2021 results with +55.7% growth in TPV bringing 1H2021 TPV (Total Processing Value) growth to +54%. It reported a +37% YoY growth in revenue for 2Q2021.



 The company's Mitra business continued to be the key driver, accounting for 48% of TPV in 2Q2021 versus 22% a year ago, with a growth rate of +292% YoY in 2Q2021.


There was some reduction in the take-rate in 2Q2021, which some analysts may focus on but this was explained as due to a change in product mix and temporary. We address concerns regarding the take rate later but they seem overdone.




Mitra Bukalapak continues to be the main growth engine for the company, with 2Q2021 Mitra TPV increasing by +237% YoY, to IDR14.2tn.



Mitra Bukalapak’s contribution margin after S&amp;M cost improved from -1.0% of TPV in FY2020 to -0.5% of TPV in Mitra’s operating loss as a ratio to TPV improved from 1.2% in FY20 to 0.6% in 1H2021.





Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) management re-iterated its strategy to continue to help enhance the performance of its Mitra's and sellers on the platform following a more of a Shopify model than one like Amazon.com Inc (AMZN US).


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) maintains that around 90% of its Mitra customers use only Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) given that it addresses many uses and allows them to make more money. 
Tokopedia and Shopee are much more reliant on aggressive capital to expand, which is not an effective long-term strategy for Mitra customers. It is also difficult to discount FMCG products for any length of time given that principles keep a handle on price levels.
Management also revealed that its first collaboration with Grab will focus on GrabMart, providing fresh food products for GrabMart's restaurant customers but more collaboration is expected on an incremental basis going forward. 
Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) management is expecting annual growth in TPV of +50%-75% per annum, with 2022 seen as a potentially even stronger year, with better purchasing power coming through post-pandemic and greater vaccination levels.
The company expects to break even at the EBITDA level by 2023 under current expectations. This accounts for rising revenues, growing take-rates, and lower S&amp;M costs. We continue to take a positive view on the outlook on Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) and do not see the short-term contraction in the take-rate as an issue.  Valuations look quite high relative to peers but the company is much closer to breakeven versus peers and given its predominantly 1P model, revenue is not far off the gross profit. 









Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P / Event-Driven

<div>
<p>A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener">Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)</a>'s NAV widens as 80.5%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-cbp-sukses-makmur-t" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17651:1" rel="noopener">Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)</a> recently outperforms, yet INDF still remains a cheap(er) proxy into ICBP. </p>
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</div>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Indofood are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
</div>


A double-dose of StubWorld this week ...



Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk P (INDF IJ)'s NAV widens as 80.5%-held Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ) recently outperforms, yet INDF still remains a cheap(er) proxy into ICBP. 



Preceding my comments on Indofood are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


Del Monte Philippines / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-philippines-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26988:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM)</a>/DMPI is a leading producer, distributor and marketer of premium quality, healthy food and beverage products. It is a market leader in the packaged pineapple and mixed fruit, ready-to-drink juices (excluding stand-up-pouches), tomato sauce and spaghetti sauce categories in the Philippines. DMPI has the rights to the <em>Del Monte</em> trademark for the Philippines for processed products and also sells products under the brands of <em>S&amp;W, Contadina</em> and <em>Today’s</em>.</p>
<p>The parent company is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/del-monte-pacific-ltd-5951cd46-129c-41bb-8eb2-58654da08425" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22651:1" rel="noopener">Del Monte Pacific (DELM PM)</a> which holds 87.0% of outstanding shares. Del Monte Pacific had previously tried to list DMPI on the PSE in 2018 by selling a 20% stake to raise up to $324 million at the maximum offer price of PHP29.88 per share but deferred the IPO due to market volatility.</p>
</div><div><p>Currently, DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP44 billion ($0.9 billion) at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. The IPO price range, which is generally lower than the maximum IPO price, will be set during the book building process. The pricing date is 12 August and the offer period runs from 16 to 20 August. </p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/del-monte-philippines-ipo-initiation-tempting-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54769" rel="noopener">Del Monte Philippines IPO Initiation: Tempting Fruit</a>, we opined that DMPI is a play on the healthy packaged and convenient packaged food and beverage categories that benefit from long-term secular tailwinds in the Philippines. DMPI’s financial track record shows it has been able to leverage its market-leading position to combine solid top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that DMPI’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at DMPI's potential valuation. </p></div></div></div>


Del Monte Philippines (1575316D PM)/DMPI is a leading producer, distributor and marketer of premium quality, healthy food and beverage products. It is a market leader in the packaged pineapple and mixed fruit, ready-to-drink juices (excluding stand-up-pouches), tomato sauce and spaghetti sauce categories in the Philippines. DMPI has the rights to the Del Monte trademark for the Philippines for processed products and also sells products under the brands of S&amp;W, Contadina and Today’s.
The parent company is Del Monte Pacific (DELM PM) which holds 87.0% of outstanding shares. Del Monte Pacific had previously tried to list DMPI on the PSE in 2018 by selling a 20% stake to raise up to $324 million at the maximum offer price of PHP29.88 per share but deferred the IPO due to market volatility.
Currently, DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to PHP44 billion ($0.9 billion) at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. The IPO price range, which is generally lower than the maximum IPO price, will be set during the book building process. The pricing date is 12 August and the offer period runs from 16 to 20 August. In Del Monte Philippines IPO Initiation: Tempting Fruit, we opined that DMPI is a play on the healthy packaged and convenient packaged food and beverage categories that benefit from long-term secular tailwinds in the Philippines. DMPI’s financial track record shows it has been able to leverage its market-leading position to combine solid top-line growth with improving margins and cash generation. We concluded that DMPI’s fundamentals are attractive. In this note, we present our forecasts and take the first look at DMPI's potential valuation. 

Del Monte Philippines IPO: Valuation First-Look

Indonesia

PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk manufactures and distributes animal feeds, woven plastic bags, and poultry equipment as well as processes chicken.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates poultry farms and distributes its products.

PT Mayora Indah Tbk manufactures candies and cookies.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures food, coffee powder, instant coffee, and cocoa beans.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk and its subsidiaries manufacture instant noodles, wheat flour, baby food, food seasonings, coffee, cooking oil, and snacks.

PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia Tbk manufactures animal feed, breeds and processes chickens, and operates aquaculture farms.  The Company trades its products domestically and internationally.

PT Siantar Top Tbk manufactures a variety of snack food products.  The Company produces snack noodles, crackers, and candies under the brand names Fuji Mie, Mie Goreng, Olala, Tamiku, Twistko, Tic-Tic, Twistball, Fuji Chips, Tovie Candy, Balico-Kelapa, and XUXU.

PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Company Tbk operates in the food and beverage industry. The Company produces aseptic drinks such as liquid milk, fruit juices and health drinks. Ultrajaya Milk also produces butter, powder milk and sweet condensed milk.

PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk operates rubber plantations and manufactures cooking oil. Through its subsidiaries,  the Company also operates a variety of other plantations such as palm oil, tea, and cocoa plantations.

PT Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk operates in the agriculture industry. The Company trades in palm oil.

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT and its subsidiaries develops oil palm and tea plantations.  The Company produces and trades crude palm oil, palm kernel oil, tea, and refined palm products such as cooking oil and margarine.  Sinar Mas also manufactures packaging products such as bottles and caps as well as provides management services.

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT (SMAR IJ)

Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology Tbk PT

PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk produces, manufactures and distributes cooking oil, margarine, and shortening. The Company has its own palm plantation and factories. Salim distributes its product worldwide.

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes quality dairy products in China. The principal products are liquid milk products, ice cream, and other dairy products, such as milk powder. The Company markets its products under its primary MENGNIU core brand.

Want Want China Holdings Limited manufactures and trades rice crackers, snack food, beverages, and packing materials.  The Company also manufactures wheat, flour, and raw materials for the manufacture of snack foods.  Most of the company's production facilities are located in China and Taiwan.

Dali Foods Group Company Ltd. is a snack food and beverage company. The Company is actively expanding its products offering and distributes its products through retailers.

Ingredion Incorporated refines corn and produces sweeteners and starches.  The Company has customers in a wide range of industries, including the food, soft drink, brewing, pharmaceutical, corrugating, paper, and textile industries.  Ingredion has Company-owned operations, joint ventures, alliances, and technical licenses in countries around the world.

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation produces prepared and fresh chicken products in the United States and Mexico.  Through vertical integration, the Company controls the breeding, hatching, and growing of chickens and the processing, preparation, and packaging of its product lines.  Pilgrim's Pride exports its products to Canada, Eastern Europe, the Far East, and other world markets.

Nestle (Malaysia) Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and sells powdered milk and drinks, liquid milk and juices, instant coffee, and instant noodles. Nestle also manufactures and provides packaging for culinary and chocolate-based food products and trades flavoring ingredients.

NISSIN FOODS HOLDINGS CO.,LTD. produces instant noodle and processed food products.  The Company also develops pharmaceuticals.  NISSIN FOODS operates production facilities in overseas countries including Hong Kong, India, U.S., Singapore, and other countries.

Ruchi Soya Industries Limited manufactures soybean oil, vanaspati vegetable fat, texturized soya protein, soya flour and other soya products.  The Group has also developed Palm stearin and Palm olein cooking oils.

New Hope Liuhe Co Ltd develops, produces, and markets a variety of animal feeds The Company also operates a commercial tradingbusiness, produces packing materials, chemicals and fish oil, and provides consulting services.

WH Group Limited operates as a holdings company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides meat processing services, supplies chilled meat, meat products, and other related products.

PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk provides a wide range of food products. The Company is a total food solutions company with operations in all stages of food manufacturing from the production of raw materials and their processing through to consumer products on the retailer's shelf.

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Indofood CBP Sukses (ICBP IJ)

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) IPO: Valuation Insights

Cimory is seeking to raise up to $265 m. Bookbuilding ends on 17 Nov and shares will list on 6 Dec. Our valuation analysis suggests that we would...

Arun George

Ultrajaya Milk Industry & Trading (ULTJ IJ) - Growth in a Small Carton

Ultrajaya remains one of Indonesia's least appreciated consumer staple players, with super-strong brands and a good long term growth track record...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) - The Magic of Mitra

Bukalapak released an impressive set of 2Q2021 results, with the MSME Mitra business now close to half its TPV and showing triple-digit YoY growth....

Angus Mackintosh

StubWorld: Momentum With Indofood CBP

A 40% discount to NAV is wide for what is largely a single stock Holdco. Should ICBP continue to outperform here, I'd recommend a long/short on a...

David Blennerhassett

Del Monte Philippines IPO: Valuation First-Look

DMPI is pre-marketing for an IPO to raise up to $0.9 billion at the maximum offer price of PHP54.80. In this note, we present our forecasts and...

Arun George

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