European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iberdrola-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21276:1" rel="noopener">Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)</a> launches a $34.25/share cash offer to acquire the minorities (18.4%) in its US subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avangrid-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26503:1" rel="noopener">Avangrid (AGR US)</a>. Premium is 6.8%, and the cost c. $2.5 billion.</li>
<li>The market was awaiting this move since the cancellation of the PNM deal, which explains the recent rise in the share price of Avangrid.</li>
<li>Gross spread is 4.5%. It seems investors are buying in the hope of an offer sweetening, knowing that Iberdrola has some cash available to spend from the profitable Mexico exit.</li>
</ul>



Iberdrola SA (IBE SM) launches a $34.25/share cash offer to acquire the minorities (18.4%) in its US subsidiary Avangrid (AGR US). Premium is 6.8%, and the cost c. $2.5 billion.
The market was awaiting this move since the cancellation of the PNM deal, which explains the recent rise in the share price of Avangrid.
Gross spread is 4.5%. It seems investors are buying in the hope of an offer sweetening, knowing that Iberdrola has some cash available to spend from the profitable Mexico exit.


IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electric-power-development-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:292:1" rel="noopener">Electric Power Development C (9513 JP)</a> at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.</li>
<li>If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.</li>
<li>The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) has disclosed a non-binding scheme proposal from Electric Power Development C (9513 JP) at A$0.275, a 48.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.185.
If the scheme fails, J-Power will launch an off-market takeover offer with a 50.1% minimum acceptance condition at A$0.270 per share. The dual-track bid is meant to counter Skip's stake.
The Board has granted exclusive due diligence until 31 March. The offer is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip Capital’s acceptance.  


Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Stay long in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hs-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7311:1" rel="noopener">HS Holdings (8699 JP)</a>.But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-pharm-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:992:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS)</a> is up 37% since the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:991:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/celltrion-healthcare-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23641:1" rel="noopener">Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS)</a> merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. </li>
<li>NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.</li>
</ul>


Stay long in HS Holdings (8699 JP).But beware. It is possible that there is a slightly uncomfortable outcome. 

Celltrion Pharm (068760 KS) is up 37% since the Celltrion Inc (068270 KS)/Celltrion Healthcare (091990 KS) merger completed; and Inc is up 22%. That's A LOT of expectation baked in. 
NEW NISA details are cute, but governance and corporate buybacks matter more. If better education induces a swing from cash/deposits to risky assets, much of that will happen outside NISA.


Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iberdrola-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21276:1" rel="noopener">Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)</a>'s U.S. subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/avangrid-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26503:1" rel="noopener">Avangrid (AGR US)</a> terminated its $8.3 billion deal for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pnm-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16546:1" rel="noopener">PNM Resources (PNM US)</a> as it could not New Mexico regulatory approval by 31 December 2023.</li>
<li>Iberdrola lost its patience but freed up €11.5 billion from that deal, together with €5.5 billion from assets sold to the Mexican Government. That's a lot for inorganic growth. </li>
<li>PNM, at 9.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, is trading in line with comparables, thus on a multiples basis there should be limited downside to the share price.</li>
</ul>



Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)'s U.S. subsidiary Avangrid (AGR US) terminated its $8.3 billion deal for PNM Resources (PNM US) as it could not New Mexico regulatory approval by 31 December 2023.
Iberdrola lost its patience but freed up €11.5 billion from that deal, together with €5.5 billion from assets sold to the Mexican Government. That's a lot for inorganic growth. 
PNM, at 9.7x EV/Fwd EBITDA, is trading in line with comparables, thus on a multiples basis there should be limited downside to the share price.


Avangrid (Iberdrola) Terminates Merger Agreement with PNM Resources

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.</li>
<li>EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.</li>
</ul>


There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.


Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

Spain

Iberdrola S.A. generates, distributes, trades, and markets electricity in the United Kingdom, United States, Spain, Portugal, and Latin America.  The Company specializes in clean energy and more specifically wind power.

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Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)

Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move

Iberdrola SA offers $34.25/share to acquire minorities in US subsidiary Avangrid, with a 6.8% premium and $2.5 billion cost. The market was...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Avangrid (Iberdrola) Terminates Merger Agreement with PNM Resources

Iberdrola's US subsidiary, Avangrid, cancels $8.3 billion deal for PNM Resources due to failure to obtain New Mexico approval. Iberdrola gains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Iberdrola/Avangrid: Logical Move

​Iberdrola SA offers $34.25/share to acquire minorities in US subsidiary Avangrid, with a 6.8% premium and $2.5 billion cost. The market was...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Genex Power (GNX AU): J-Power’s Dual-Track Non-Binding Proposal

The NBIO is attractive, but the scheme's completion hinges on Skip’s acceptance. The off-market takeover is the floor price, as the minimum...

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: HS Holdings, Celltrion Pharm, NISA, PICC/PICC P&C

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Avangrid (Iberdrola) Terminates Merger Agreement with PNM Resources

​Iberdrola's US subsidiary, Avangrid, cancels $8.3 billion deal for PNM Resources due to failure to obtain New Mexico approval. Iberdrola gains...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

#Japan #Nikkei 225 and #TOPIX above base supports at 30,800 and 2120, respectively. We've discussed buying pullbacks to 1950-2000 on TOPIX, but it...

Vermilion Research

Iberdrola SA offers $34.25/share to acquire minorities in US subsidiary Avangrid, with a 6.8% premium and $2.5 billion cost. The market was...

Iberdrola's US subsidiary, Avangrid, cancels $8.3 billion deal for PNM Resources due to failure to obtain New Mexico approval. Iberdrola gains...