Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/euro-stoxx-50-quiddity-leaderboard-for-sep-22-eurozone-s-annual-big-impact-rebal-trades" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:72736" rel="noopener">Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades</a>, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. </li>
<li>With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.</li>
</ul>


The EURO STOXX 50 Index is one of the most highly-watched indices in mainland Europe and the annual index review takes place in September.
In Euro Stoxx 50 Quiddity Leaderboard for Sep 22: Eurozone's Annual Big Impact Rebal Trades, we looked at the Potential ADDs/DELs and the historical performance of Rebalance Events. 
With less than a week left until the Reference date, we take a final look at the rankings in this insight.


EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.</li>
<li>The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.
The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. 
The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    


Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

Total Access Communication / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chongqing-hongjiu-fruit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36023:1" rel="noopener">Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK)</a> is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/infomedia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11385:1" rel="noopener">Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramsay-health-care-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:673:1" rel="noopener">Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU)</a>, ResApp, DTAC/True, Dongzheng AFC.  </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Chongqing Hongjiu Fruit (CHF HK) is pre-marketing a US$200-300m IPO.
Event-Driven developments at Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU), Infomedia Ltd (IFM AU), Link Administration (LNK AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), ResApp, DTAC/True, Dongzheng AFC.  


Weekly Deals Digest (07 Aug) - Hongjiu Fruit, Link, Infomedia, Atlas Arteria, ResApp, DTAC/True

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> shares rose 44% on the back of an A$0.23 per share offer from Skip Capital and Stonepeak. Skip also increased its stake to 19.99%.</li>
<li>At first glance, the offer looks generous in comparison to peer multiples and recent share prices. However, the offer is opportunistic partly due to Genex’s 500MW pipeline of projects. </li>
<li>Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is worth at least A$0.27 per share. The Board should engage for a higher price. </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) shares rose 44% on the back of an A$0.23 per share offer from Skip Capital and Stonepeak. Skip also increased its stake to 19.99%.
At first glance, the offer looks generous in comparison to peer multiples and recent share prices. However, the offer is opportunistic partly due to Genex’s 500MW pipeline of projects. 
Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is worth at least A$0.27 per share. The Board should engage for a higher price. 


Genex’s Offer of A$0.23 from Skip Capital Likely Won’t Cut It

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).</li>
<li>The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.</li>
<li>Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors</li>
</ul>


Downtrends remain intact for Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei 225, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX50, Germany's DAX, China (MCHI-US), and all the MSCI global indexes (ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EM, and EAFE).
The majority of these indexes are in well-defined downtrends; that means when the downtrends eventually reverse, it will be clear and we will be ready to buy/turn bullish.
Relative strength on Japan's TOPIX is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend, signaling Japan is emerging as leadership. We highlight buy opportunities in Japan and also in defensive Sectors


Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Spain

Iberdrola S.A. generates, distributes, trades, and markets electricity in the United Kingdom, United States, Spain, Portugal, and Latin America.  The Company specializes in clean energy and more specifically wind power.

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Iberdrola SA (IBE SM)

EURO STOXX 50 Quiddity Leaderboard: Two Potential ADDs with ~US$1bn Flows Each

I expect 2 ADDs with ~US$1bn inflows each and 2 DELs with ~US$0.5bn in outflows each. While flows are significant, the LONG ADDs-SHORT DELs Trade...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

Maintain holding or buy with the view of a potential rival bid or that the risk of the headcount test forces Skip/Stonepeak to further bump their...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (07 Aug) - Hongjiu Fruit, Link, Infomedia, Atlas Arteria, ResApp, DTAC/True

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Link Admin, ResApp, Ramsay, DTAC/True, Infomedia, Atlas Arteria, Genex Power, Dongzheng...

Arun George

Genex’s Offer of A$0.23 from Skip Capital Likely Won’t Cut It

At first glance, the A$0.23 offer looks generous. Benchmarking the precedent transaction multiples suggests that Genex’s existing portfolio is...

Arun George

Japan Emerging as Leadership; Actionable Themes: Japan and Defensives

Despite the intact downtrend on Japan's TOPIX, relative strength is reversing topside a 4.5-year downtrend; this tells us Japan is emerging as...

Vermilion Research

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