HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

Hutchison China MediTech Ltd / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED’s 23H1 results were in line with expectation. We updated our forecast for the three core products. Its 2023 total revenue would achieve a high double-digit growth. HUTCHMED is undervalued. </li>
<li>Performance prospects for 2024 and beyond largely depend on whether fruquintinib can smoothly obtain FDA approval in 2023, which means significant progress in internationalization and possibility of breakeven in 2025.</li>
<li>Based on the performance so far, we think the clarity of HUTCHMED’s performance is high and the guidance given by management is reliable. The Company deserves more attention from investors.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED’s 23H1 results were in line with expectation. We updated our forecast for the three core products. Its 2023 total revenue would achieve a high double-digit growth. HUTCHMED is undervalued. 
Performance prospects for 2024 and beyond largely depend on whether fruquintinib can smoothly obtain FDA approval in 2023, which means significant progress in internationalization and possibility of breakeven in 2025.
Based on the performance so far, we think the clarity of HUTCHMED’s performance is high and the guidance given by management is reliable. The Company deserves more attention from investors.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​HCM.US) 23H1 - This Company Is Becoming More Attractive

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BeiGene has received FDA approved for Tevimbra for the first-line treatment of certain types of gastric cancers. Innovent announced a collaboration and exclusive license agreement with Roche for an ADC.</li>
<li>CSPC Pharmaceutical got clinical trial approval in China for Leuprorelin extended-release Injection. Sichuan Kelun-Biotech received China approval for tagitanlimab in nasopharyngeal cancer.</li>
<li>Hutchmed China is divesting its 45% equity interest in joint venture for $608M. Yuhan Corp has received European approval for its lung cancer drug Leclaza.</li>
</ul>


BeiGene has received FDA approved for Tevimbra for the first-line treatment of certain types of gastric cancers. Innovent announced a collaboration and exclusive license agreement with Roche for an ADC.
CSPC Pharmaceutical got clinical trial approval in China for Leuprorelin extended-release Injection. Sichuan Kelun-Biotech received China approval for tagitanlimab in nasopharyngeal cancer.
Hutchmed China is divesting its 45% equity interest in joint venture for $608M. Yuhan Corp has received European approval for its lung cancer drug Leclaza.


APAC Healthcare Weekly (Jan 5)- Beigene, Innovent Biologics, CSPC Pharma, Hutchmed, Yuhan, Lupin

Equity Capital Markets

Ascentage Pharma Group Corp / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.</li>
<li>The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. </li>
<li>Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. </li>
</ul>


Ascentage has filed with the SEC to raise up to US$100 million in a US IPO. We think its future market value is expected to surpass that of Hutchmed.
The outlook of olverembatinib is clear. Takeda can give more possibilities to olverembatinib. 2025 Sales of olverembatinib is expected to reach RMB500 million.Market value contribution from olverembatinib is US$1-1.5 billion. 
Investors have higher expectations on APG-2575 to be out-licensed to MNCs. We think the peak sales of APG-2575 is expected to surpass that of olverembatinib in overseas markets. 


Pre-IPO Ascentage Pharma - The US Stock Listing Will Stimulate Future Growth Potential

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 20th.</li>
<li>The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan, Tencent.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 20th.
The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
We highlight flows for Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan, Tencent.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 20th): Alibaba, CCB, China Mobile, ICBC, Ping An Insurance, Meituan

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>2024 NRDL negotiation results were released. Some eye-catching drugs were included this time, which will bring challenges to companies such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/innovent-biologics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27452:1" rel="noopener">Innovent</a>, RemeGen, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gan-lee-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36237:1" rel="noopener">Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xizang-haisco-pharmaceutical-group-coltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4779:1" rel="noopener">Haisco Pharmaceutical</a>, etc..</li>
<li>There have been a big “expectation gap” for biotech companies in Hong Kong stock market - It's a mismatch between what the market thinks and what's actually happening.</li>
<li>The progress of Henlius’ privatization is still slower-than-expected. We also do not know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun Pharma's system.</li>
</ul>


2024 NRDL negotiation results were released. Some eye-catching drugs were included this time, which will bring challenges to companies such as Innovent, RemeGen, Gan &amp; Lee Pharmaceuticals, Haisco Pharmaceutical, etc..
There have been a big “expectation gap” for biotech companies in Hong Kong stock market - It's a mismatch between what the market thinks and what's actually happening.
The progress of Henlius’ privatization is still slower-than-expected. We also do not know how this privatization ranks in terms of strategic significance of capital operations within Fosun Pharma's system.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.1)- 2024 NRDL Result, Expectation Gap for Biotech, Henlius' Wide Spread

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)