Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The PCAOB has not, despite a cooperation agreement with the CSRC signed in 2013, been able to conduct on-site investigations of a HK or mainland-based company since 2010.</li>
<li>On Friday, the CSRC published a new Strengthening Confidentiality and File Management Related to Overseas Issuance to replace 2009 rules. </li>
<li>Importantly, the revised Provisions deletes the stipulation that “on-site inspections shall be dominated by domestic regulators or depend on the conclusions of inspections by domestic regulators.” Will it be enough?</li>
</ul>


The PCAOB has not, despite a cooperation agreement with the CSRC signed in 2013, been able to conduct on-site investigations of a HK or mainland-based company since 2010.
On Friday, the CSRC published a new Strengthening Confidentiality and File Management Related to Overseas Issuance to replace 2009 rules. 
Importantly, the revised Provisions deletes the stipulation that “on-site inspections shall be dominated by domestic regulators or depend on the conclusions of inspections by domestic regulators.” Will it be enough?


New CSRC "Provisions" Take a Step Towards Meeting PCAOB Requirements

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.</li>
<li>Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.</li>
<li>HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.</li>
</ul>


Takeda’s sales team is fully prepared for the launch of fruquintinib in EU. 2024 full-year overseas sales may once again beat the expectations. High growth is expected from 2024 to 2026.
Peak sales of fruquintinib + savolitinib + surufatinib that recorded in HUTCHMED’s revenue is expected to be over US$750 million.Without considering other revenue, market value would reach about US$4.5 billion.
HUTCHMED’s pipeline lacks blockbuster products and the indications are small. With the rise of PROTAC, small molecule drugs would face challenges, which would test the management's resilience in the future.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - Time to Reassess Valuation Prospects Despite the Pain Points

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.</li>
<li>2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.</li>
<li>Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 - US$1,800 million is a good place to long. </li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED’s 2023 results were in line with expectation. It is gradually becoming a self-sufficient innovative drug enterprise with sufficient cashflow due to upfront/milestone payments of Takeda and increasing product revenue.
2024 revenue guidance seems very optimistic, which has to rely on fruquintinib’s global sales performance (or Takeda’s contribution), and also on the timing of approval of fruquintinib’s 2L gastric cancer.
Starting from 2024, HUTCHMED will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue based on major catalysts.Market value of US$1,200 - US$1,800 million is a good place to long. 


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - High Growth Is Expected from 2024 to 2026

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>Including US$312mn upfront and milestone payments from Takeda, HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology reached US$529mn in FY23 (vs US$164mn in FY22), close to the upper limit of its US$450-550mn guidance.</li><li>The in-market product sales increased 28% YoY (35% at CER) to US$214mn in FY23, among which sales of fruquintinib in China increased 15% YoY (22% at CER) to US$108mn, maintaining leadership in patient share (47%) in 3L CRC.</li><li>Fruquintinib recorded US$15mn in sales in the overseas market in 2023 since the launch in Nov. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Including US$312mn upfront and milestone payments from Takeda, HCM’s consolidated revenues from oncology/immunology reached US$529mn in FY23 (vs US$164mn in FY22), close to the upper limit of its US$450-550mn guidance.The in-market product sales increased 28% YoY (35% at CER) to US$214mn in FY23, among which sales of fruquintinib in China increased 15% YoY (22% at CER) to US$108mn, maintaining leadership in patient share (47%) in 3L CRC.Fruquintinib recorded US$15mn in sales in the overseas market in 2023 since the launch in Nov. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hutchmed (13 HK) – A Fruitful 2024 on the Way

<ul>
<li>HUTCHMED's 2023 results are relatively certain. Fruquintinib had a strong start after obtaining approval in the US, with sales of about US$13-15 million in just more than a month.</li>
<li>Oncology/Immunology consolidated revenue would be in line with management’s performance guidance (US$450 to US$550 million) in 2023. There are promising data readout/NDA submission this year, which would be potential catalysts.</li>
<li>HUTCHMED has sufficient cashflow and does not require external financing. From 2024 to 2026, it will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue. Breakeven is achievable in 2025.</li>
</ul>


HUTCHMED's 2023 results are relatively certain. Fruquintinib had a strong start after obtaining approval in the US, with sales of about US$13-15 million in just more than a month.
Oncology/Immunology consolidated revenue would be in line with management’s performance guidance (US$450 to US$550 million) in 2023. There are promising data readout/NDA submission this year, which would be potential catalysts.
HUTCHMED has sufficient cashflow and does not require external financing. From 2024 to 2026, it will enter a period of accelerated growth in product revenue. Breakeven is achievable in 2025.


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) - 2023 Results Preview and Catalysts in 2024

Hong Kong

HUTCHMED (China) Limited develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products. The Company offers drugs for oncology and autoimmune diseases treatment. HUTCHMED (China) markets its products worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hutchmed China Ltd (13 HK)

New CSRC "Provisions" Take a Step Towards Meeting PCAOB Requirements

CSRC has published new Provisions putting the onus of info management on companies, making it easier for the PCAOB to conduct on-site audits. It...

Travis Lundy