Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.</li>
<li>Unlike <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/midea-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43993:1" rel="noopener">Midea Group (300 HK)</a>, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.</li>
<li>With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.</li>
</ul>


The S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares are being offered at a price range of HK$32.3-36.3/share, a discount of 20.2%-29% to the A-shares. The max raise (including oversubscription) is US$912m.
Unlike Midea Group (300 HK), the S.F. Holding (002352 CH) H-shares will not get Fast Entry to any indices. Southbound Stock Connect inclusion will take place on 23 December.
With no index inclusion in the short-term, the H-shares discount to the A-shares should remain wide. The H-shares could become short sell eligible in February.


SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

Quantitative Researcher, MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Quantitative Researcher

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

<ul>
<li>If the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-s-downtrend-could-continue-in-may-but-the-bottom-is-near" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our previous forecast</a> will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).</li>
<li>The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.</li>
<li>A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. </li>
</ul>


If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex. 


EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI INDEX</a> is currently down for the 2nd week in a row and it is quite oversold on a WEEKLY basis.</li>
<li>A temporary reversal could come as soon as this week or next week, but we don't think this will mark a restart of the previous rally.</li>
<li>Look at the 16250-16050 area to go LONG, this is the area where the index most likely will print a temporary bottom.</li>
</ul>


The HSI INDEX is currently down for the 2nd week in a row and it is quite oversold on a WEEKLY basis.
A temporary reversal could come as soon as this week or next week, but we don't think this will mark a restart of the previous rally.
Look at the 16250-16050 area to go LONG, this is the area where the index most likely will print a temporary bottom.


EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.</li>
<li>Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.</li>
<li>You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index has been rising for 2 weeks but the uptrend seems slow and weak. The rally may have stalled, a pullback may be behind the corner.
Based on our MONTHLY seasonal studies for the HSI, the index has a extremely high chance to close April in negative territory.
You can go SHORT now, or during this coming week if the index keeps rising, target the 17000 to 17300 areas.


EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Index</a> is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.</li>
<li>Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial. </li>
<li>Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.</li>
</ul>


The Hang Seng Index is at a turning point: investors want to know if the current rally can continue into April.
Our MONTHLY seasonal matrix model indicates that to see the index rallying in April, usually we should have a negative close in March, so this week will be crucial. 
Buy between 16281 and 15924 to ride the continuation of the rally in April.


EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

Hong Kong

The Hang Seng Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index of a selection of companies from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong. The components of the index are divided into four subindices: Commerce and Industry, Finance, Utilities, and Properties. The index was developed with a base level of 100 as of July 31, 1964.

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

The SF Holding H-share raise is lower than expectations. No Fast Entry could lead to a lackluster listing. Southbound Connect inclusion on 23 Dec....

Brian Freitas

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...

Nico Rosti

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

Many investors are wondering if the Hang Seng Index rally can continue into April: the last week of March will be crucial to determine the index's...

Nico Rosti

SF Holding (6936 HK): No Index Inclusion till Mid-2025; AH Premium Could Stay Wide

The SF Holding H-share raise is lower than expectations. No Fast Entry could lead to a lackluster listing. Southbound Connect inclusion on 23 Dec....

Brian Freitas

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

The HSI performed a large rally last week and it is now OVERBOUGHT. It will probably close April up and this changes the trend forecast we had...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Hang Seng Down: Upcoming Bounce May Not Mean Rally Continuation

​The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

Nico Rosti

EQD | HSI Closed the Week Modestly Up: A Pullback Is Possible Next Week

​The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...

Nico Rosti

EQD | The Hang Seng Index's Crucial Fork Is at the End of March

Many investors are wondering if the Hang Seng Index rally can continue into April: the last week of March will be crucial to determine the index's...

Nico Rosti

The HSI Index is down for the 2nd week in a row, short-term oversold, a temporary reversal could come soon but it's not a restart of the previous...

The Hang Seng Index latest uptrend moves appear slow and weak, we see a pullback ahead. Seasonal studies suggest a high chance of negative April...