Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda (7267 JP) </a> announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. </li>
<li>Murakami-San has started selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/exedy-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6516:1" rel="noopener">Exedy Corp (7278 JP)</a>, earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.</li>
</ul>



Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.

Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)'s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025... </li>
<li>Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback - up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.</li>
<li>Assuming the stock pops, it is probably "only" worth 15-18%, but that's still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.</li>
</ul>


Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025... 
Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback - up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
Assuming the stock pops, it is probably "only" worth 15-18%, but that's still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.


Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.</li>
<li>Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.</li>
<li>Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.</li>
</ul>


The global auto industry faces significant tariff exposure. Option implied volatility offers a forward-looking assessment of risk.
Chinese car makers started to increase in implied volatility more than the other markets at the beginning of February. They now show the highest risk.
Recent implied volatility trends, asymmetric pricing (skew), and the term structure all seem to indicate that the Indian auto sector is the least exposed to international trade relations.


EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.</li>
<li>Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.</li>
</ul>


Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.


Global Autos:  Falling Investor Confidence

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koito-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15841" rel="noopener">Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP)</a> in their <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/9ecb757d-eb06-44b8-836a-e25e2a92658e?j=eyJ1IjoiNGw4bzJ0In0.mRWyfA0pZX4OpuLi73L47WeYJ_ccqy9266JSt_5dbKo" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/9ecb757d-eb06-44b8-836a-e25e2a92658e?j%3DeyJ1IjoiNGw4bzJ0In0.mRWyfA0pZX4OpuLi73L47WeYJ_ccqy9266JSt_5dbKo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1731988981096000&amp;usg=AOvVaw28QVMvDwFXl0HOJcCfGTk1" rel="noopener">second-quarter 2024 letter</a>.</li><li>So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.</li><li>What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.</li></ul>

Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) in their second-quarter 2024 letter.So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.

Japan

Honda Motor Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures, and distributes motorcycles, automobiles, and power products such as generators and farm machinery. The Company also operates a financial credit business. Honda Motor has manufacturing facilities in the US, Canada, the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Thailand.

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Honda Motor (7267 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

On the same day that Honda, Nissan, and Mit Motors announce plans to look at joining under a holdco, in Q3 2026, Honda announces a massive new...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

Koito Mfgr － 2024 Update (7276 JP)

It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.

Asian Century Stocks

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Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Honda (7267 JP) - MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

On the same day that Honda, Nissan, and Mit Motors announce plans to look at joining under a holdco, in Q3 2026, Honda announces a massive new...

Travis Lundy

EQD | Volatile Roads: Unveiling Risk in the Asian Auto Industry Through the Options Market

​Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...

Gaudenz Schneider

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

Koito Mfgr － 2024 Update (7276 JP)

It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.

Asian Century Stocks

Global auto industry faces tariff risk. The option market assigns the highest risk to Chinese car makers. The Indian auto sector appears least...