Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The competitive position and demand environment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>'s "Classic 350" remains intact. </li>
<li>The recent launch "Hunter 350" is expanding markets by taking on the competition.</li>
<li>Cannablisation fears from Hunter 350, remain unfounded, and unlikely to have any major impact on margin trajectory. </li>
</ul>


The competitive position and demand environment for Eicher Motors (EIM IN)'s "Classic 350" remains intact. 
The recent launch "Hunter 350" is expanding markets by taking on the competition.
Cannablisation fears from Hunter 350, remain unfounded, and unlikely to have any major impact on margin trajectory. 


Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | "Hunting" Down Competition

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Q2FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companies</li><li>Aggregate revenue/PAT grew by 31%/4% YoY across the HSIE coverage universe (~206 stocks), their three-year CAGR being 17%/13%</li><li>Our coverage universe saw strong YoY growth in auto, banking, consumer discretionary, industrials, chemicals, and real estate segments</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Q2FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 31%/4% YoY across the HSIE coverage universe (~206 stocks), their three-year CAGR being 17%/13%Our coverage universe saw strong YoY growth in auto, banking, consumer discretionary, industrials, chemicals, and real estate segmentsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India Equity Strategy: Cost inflation peaked out; margin recovery on the horizon

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HMCL’s 2QFY22 performance was broadly in-line, as QoQ volume recovery and commodity costs benefits supported margin recovery.</li><li>The company has recorded a 20% retail sales growth over the 32-day festive season and the demand momentum is expected to continue, led by the season.</li><li>We lower our FY23/FY24 EPS estimates by 3%/2% as we tweak our volumes, realization, and margin estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HMCL’s 2QFY22 performance was broadly in-line, as QoQ volume recovery and commodity costs benefits supported margin recovery.The company has recorded a 20% retail sales growth over the 32-day festive season and the demand momentum is expected to continue, led by the season.We lower our FY23/FY24 EPS estimates by 3%/2% as we tweak our volumes, realization, and margin estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero MotoCorp - Festive Spirits to Drive Demand Recovery

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Hero Motocorp Ltd. (HMCL) reported a weak set of numbers with a marginal beat on the revenue front while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.</li><li>Revenue (2% beat) grew by 7.4%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher Average Sales Price (ASP), beat by 2%, which increased by 8%/5% YoY/QoQ, while sales volumes were almost flat YoY but were up 2.7% QoQ.</li><li>ASP beat was on account of a richer product mix and a higher share of XTEC variants in the entry-level segment.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero Motocorp Ltd. (HMCL) reported a weak set of numbers with a marginal beat on the revenue front while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.Revenue (2% beat) grew by 7.4%/8% YoY/QoQ, led by higher Average Sales Price (ASP), beat by 2%, which increased by 8%/5% YoY/QoQ, while sales volumes were almost flat YoY but were up 2.7% QoQ.ASP beat was on account of a richer product mix and a higher share of XTEC variants in the entry-level segment.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Hero Motocorp - Weak Numbers with EBITDA Miss; Downgrade to HOLD

<ul><li>SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,650 on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from the agrochemical and pharma industries</li><li>EBITDA/APAT were 24/24% below our estimates, owing to a 7% fall in revenue, substantially higher-than-expected raw material cost, offset by lower-than-expected depreciation and higher-than-expected other income. Marico: Marico posted an in-line performance on both revenue and EBITDA margin</li><li>Consolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

SRF: We retain our ADD rating on SRF, with a target price of INR 2,650 on the back of (1) continued healthy performance from speciality chemicals business; (2) strong balance sheet; and (3) deployment of capex for high-growth speciality chemicals business over the next 3-4 years to tap opportunities emerging from the agrochemical and pharma industriesEBITDA/APAT were 24/24% below our estimates, owing to a 7% fall in revenue, substantially higher-than-expected raw material cost, offset by lower-than-expected depreciation and higher-than-expected other income. Marico: Marico posted an in-line performance on both revenue and EBITDA marginConsolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: SRF, Marico, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, City Union Bank

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. manufactures and distributes two-wheeler scooters.

Atul Auto Ltd. manufactures three-wheeled commercial diesel vehicles.

MRF Limited manufactures and distributes tyres and tubes for automobiles, aircrafts, motorcycles and cycles. The Company also manufactures conveyor belts, paint and coats, and hoses. Every MRF tyre designed is the result of a special acid test on the race and rally tracks.

Bosch Limited manufactures a wide range of automotive parts. The Company'products includes fuel injection pumps, spark plugs, including nozzles and nozzle holders, elements, delivery valves, filters and filter inserts, glow plugs, starter motors, alternators and wipers. Bosch also manufactures hydraulics and pneumatic equipment and electric power tools and fixtures.

Hindustan Motors Limited manufactures cars, trucks, diesel engines, bulldozers, cranes, dumpers, compactors, shovels and scrapers. The Company also manufactures a wide range of steel products, axle assemblies, special purpose machine tools, hydraulic pumps and hydraulic valves.

Bharat Forge Limited manufactures steel forgings and machined components for the automotive, diesel engine, railway, earthmoving, cement, sugar, steel, coal, ship building and oilfield industries. The Company specializes in Closed Die as well as Open Die Forgings.

Samvardhana Motherson International Limited manufactures and distributes automotive parts. The Company offers products such as HVAC systems, air intake manifolds, highway vehicle cabins, air compressors, and pedal box assembly. Samvardhana Motherson International markets its products worldwide.

Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN)

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. manufactures automobile tires and tubes. The Company also manufactures different varieties of paper & paper boards and processes synthetic textiles.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

Renault SA designs, manufactures, markets, and repairs passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The Company also provides financing and service solutions, including credit for new and used vehicles.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

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Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

Eicher Motors (EIM IN) | "Hunting" Down Competition

Our recent checks indicate, the competitive position and demand environment for Eicher Motors (EIM IN)'s "Classic 350" remain intact.

Pranav Bhavsar

India Equity Strategy: Cost inflation peaked out; margin recovery on the horizon

Q2FY23 earnings season saw an overall in-line performance, with wide divergences across sectors and companiesAggregate revenue/PAT grew by 31%/4% YoY

HDFC Securities

Hero MotoCorp - Festive Spirits to Drive Demand Recovery

HMCL’s 2QFY22 performance was broadly in-line, as QoQ volume recovery and commodity costs benefits supported margin recovery.

Motilal Oswal

Hero Motocorp - Weak Numbers with EBITDA Miss; Downgrade to HOLD

Hero Motocorp Ltd. (HMCL) reported a weak set of numbers with a marginal beat on the revenue front while EBITDA/PAT stood below our estimates.

Axis Direct

HSIE Results Daily: SRF, Marico, TVS Motor, Hero Motocorp, City Union Bank

Consolidated revenue was up 3% YoY while domestic revenue/volume were up 1/3% YoY (three-year revenue/volume CAGRs at 11/7% vs HUL’s 10/3%)

HDFC Securities

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