Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With roughly a week left in the reference period, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>For NIFTY 50, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pidilite-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20573:1" rel="noopener">Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN)</a> is the highest-ranked Potential ADD while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-petroleum-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10222:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN)</a> is the highest-ranked Potential DELETE according to our estimates.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the recent price performance of names that can potentially be involved in index changes and our flow expectations.</li>
</ul>


With roughly a week left in the reference period, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50, 100, and 500 Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
For NIFTY 50, Pidilite Industries (PIDI IN) is the highest-ranked Potential ADD while Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL IN) is the highest-ranked Potential DELETE according to our estimates.
In this insight, we take a look at the recent price performance of names that can potentially be involved in index changes and our flow expectations.


Quiddity Final Expectations for NIFTY Mar 23: Pidilite Could Be an Interesting Pre-Event Bet

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In Q3, while 2W demand failed to pick up even in the festive season, PV, tractor and CV demand remained healthy</li><li>Supply chain constraints for major OEMs seem to have eased QoQ.</li><li>Export demand continues to be weak, given the geopolitical tensions</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In Q3, while 2W demand failed to pick up even in the festive season, PV, tractor and CV demand remained healthySupply chain constraints for major OEMs seem to have eased QoQ.Export demand continues to be weak, given the geopolitical tensionsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Autos (Q3FY23 Results Preview): CVs could outperform in Q3

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs to grow at 17%/39%/45% YoY in Q3FY23.</li><li>However, we expect Auto OEMs to post de-growth of 6%/1.5%/2.3% on a sequential basis, which would be led by volume de-growth as OEM’s wholesale volumes declined in Dec’22 post-festive season due to the normalization of channel inventories.</li><li>On the other hand, EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ led by price hikes taken in the quarter, RM tailwinds, and FX benefits. Exports for 2W Auto OEMs continue to remain weak.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs to grow at 17%/39%/45% YoY in Q3FY23.However, we expect Auto OEMs to post de-growth of 6%/1.5%/2.3% on a sequential basis, which would be led by volume de-growth as OEM’s wholesale volumes declined in Dec’22 post-festive season due to the normalization of channel inventories.On the other hand, EBITDA margins are expected to expand both YoY/QoQ led by price hikes taken in the quarter, RM tailwinds, and FX benefits. Exports for 2W Auto OEMs continue to remain weak.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto Q3FY23 Preview - Margin Recovery Likely in Q3

<ul><li>We expect the Q3FY23 earnings season is likely to be a mixed bag.</li><li>While the season will be led by sequential margin expansion driven by moderation in commodity prices and an uptick in credit growth, the export-oriented themes are likely to be laggards.</li><li>We believe the broad-based earnings momentum which remained robust for multiple quarters is likely to take a brief pause in Q3FY23. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We expect the Q3FY23 earnings season is likely to be a mixed bag.While the season will be led by sequential margin expansion driven by moderation in commodity prices and an uptick in credit growth, the export-oriented themes are likely to be laggards.We believe the broad-based earnings momentum which remained robust for multiple quarters is likely to take a brief pause in Q3FY23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>The domestic CV wholesales registered positive sales momentum as it posted growth of 21%/18% YoY/MoM in Dec’22, driven by the pick-up in infrastructure spending and replacement demand by fleet operators.</li><li>Tractors demand continues to surprise positively with 28% YoY growth, primarily led by positive agri-sentiments.</li><li>The domestic PV wholesale volumes grew 8% YoY but declined 15% MoM on maintenance shutdown by most OEMs, non availability of semi-conductors for some models, and lower demand for entry-level segment vehicles.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The domestic CV wholesales registered positive sales momentum as it posted growth of 21%/18% YoY/MoM in Dec’22, driven by the pick-up in infrastructure spending and replacement demand by fleet operators.Tractors demand continues to surprise positively with 28% YoY growth, primarily led by positive agri-sentiments.The domestic PV wholesale volumes grew 8% YoY but declined 15% MoM on maintenance shutdown by most OEMs, non availability of semi-conductors for some models, and lower demand for entry-level segment vehicles.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Automotive Industry - Robust CVs & Tractor Demand

India

TVS Motor Company Limited manufactures motorcycles, mopeds, and scooters. The Company provides spark ignition operated outboard motors, combustion spark ignition engines, critical engines, and transmission parts. TVS Motor Company serves customers in India.

Eicher Motors Ltd. manufactures light commercial vehicles which are sold domestically and are also exported to other countries. Eicher Motors also manufactures two-wheelers and automotive gears.

Maharashtra Scooters Ltd. manufactures and distributes two-wheeler scooters.

Atul Auto Ltd. manufactures three-wheeled commercial diesel vehicles.

MRF Limited manufactures and distributes tyres and tubes for automobiles, aircrafts, motorcycles and cycles. The Company also manufactures conveyor belts, paint and coats, and hoses. Every MRF tyre designed is the result of a special acid test on the race and rally tracks.

Bosch Limited manufactures a wide range of automotive parts. The Company'products includes fuel injection pumps, spark plugs, including nozzles and nozzle holders, elements, delivery valves, filters and filter inserts, glow plugs, starter motors, alternators and wipers. Bosch also manufactures hydraulics and pneumatic equipment and electric power tools and fixtures.

Hindustan Motors Limited manufactures cars, trucks, diesel engines, bulldozers, cranes, dumpers, compactors, shovels and scrapers. The Company also manufactures a wide range of steel products, axle assemblies, special purpose machine tools, hydraulic pumps and hydraulic valves.

Bharat Forge Limited manufactures steel forgings and machined components for the automotive, diesel engine, railway, earthmoving, cement, sugar, steel, coal, ship building and oilfield industries. The Company specializes in Closed Die as well as Open Die Forgings.

Samvardhana Motherson International Limited manufactures and distributes automotive parts. The Company offers products such as HVAC systems, air intake manifolds, highway vehicle cabins, air compressors, and pedal box assembly. Samvardhana Motherson International markets its products worldwide.

Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd (MOTHERSO IN)

Balkrishna Industries Ltd. manufactures automobile tires and tubes. The Company also manufactures different varieties of paper & paper boards and processes synthetic textiles.

PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology.

NISSAN MOTOR CO., LTD. manufactures and distributes automobiles and related parts. It also provides financing services. Nissan delivers a comprehensive range of products under various brands. The Company manufactures in Japan, the United States, Mexico, the United Kingdom and many other countries.

Geely Automobile Holdings Limited operates as a passenger vehicles manufacturing company. The Company provides passenger vehicles development, manufacturing, sales, and other services. Geely Automobile Holdings also exports passenger vehicles.

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

Subaru Corp manufactures passenger cars, buses, motor vehicle parts, and industrial machinery.  The Company also produces aircraft parts and supplies it to defense agency and Boeing Co.  The Company sells its passenger cars under the Subaru brand name.

Yamaha Motor Co., Ltd. manufactures motorcycles.  The Company also produces motor vehicle engines for Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co.  Yamaha Motor's specialty products include motor boats, snowmobiles, golf carts, and electric power generators.  Yamaha Motor sells products in Japan, North America, Europe, Asia, and South America.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.,Ltd. operates as a passenger car manufacturer. The Company engages in research, development, and marketing of new energy vehicles and power battery system. BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology conducts businesses in China.

BAIC BluePark New Energy Techn (600733 CH)

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Isuzu Motors Limited manufactures and markets trucks and automobile parts. The Company's products include pickup trucks, light/heavy duty trucks, medium and large-sized buses, recreational vehicles, and sport utility vehicles.

Renault SA designs, manufactures, markets, and repairs passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The Company also provides financing and service solutions, including credit for new and used vehicles.

Hero MotoCorp Ltd. designs, manufactures and distributes motorcycles. The Company's products also include motorcycle parts and accessories.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)

Quiddity Final Expectations for NIFTY Mar 23: Pidilite Could Be an Interesting Pre-Event Bet

There could be 3.8mn shares to buy in Pidilite in March 2023 which is around 11.3 days of volume and translates to a flow size of US$115mn.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Autos (Q3FY23 Results Preview): CVs could outperform in Q3

In Q3, while 2W demand failed to pick up even in the festive season, PV, tractor and CV demand remained healthySupply chain constraints for major...

HDFC Securities

Auto Q3FY23 Preview - Margin Recovery Likely in Q3

We expect Revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Auto OEMs to grow at 17%/39%/45% YoY in Q3FY23. However, we expect Auto OEMs to post de-growth of 6%/1.5%/2.3% on a...

Axis Direct

Q3fy23 Preview: Margins Likely to Expand

We believe the broad-based earnings momentum which remained robust for multiple quarters is likely to take a brief pause in Q3FY23.

Axis Direct

Automotive Industry - Robust CVs & Tractor Demand

The domestic CV wholesales registered positive sales momentum as it posted growth of 21%/18% YoY/MoM in Dec’22, driven by the pick-up in...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)