Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s delisting, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)</a> at the close on 12 July.</li>
<li>The change was largely expected, but passive trackers need to buy over 5 days of ADV and nearly 12 days of delivery volume of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a> .</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> delisting could help <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wipro-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15360:1" rel="noopener">Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN)</a> in avoiding deletion from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY)</a> in December.</li>
</ul>


Following HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s delisting, JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) will be added to the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) at the close on 12 July.
The change was largely expected, but passive trackers need to buy over 5 days of ADV and nearly 12 days of delivery volume of JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN) .
The HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) delisting could help Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) in avoiding deletion from the S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index (SENSEX INDEX EQUITY) in December.


SENSEX Ad Hoc Rebalance: JSW Steel Replaces HDFC

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> will stop trading at the close on 12 July and will be deleted from all indices at the close on that day.</li>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ltimindtree-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22778:1" rel="noopener">LTIMindtree (LTIM IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a> while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jindal-steel-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6614:1" rel="noopener">Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s foreign shareholding has dropped over the quarter ended 30 June and that has index implications for future passive flows to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a>. </li>
</ul>



HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) will stop trading at the close on 12 July and will be deleted from all indices at the close on that day.
As expected, LTIMindtree (LTIM IN) will be added to the NIFTY Index while Jindal Steel &amp; Power (JSP IN) will be added to the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index.
Importantly, HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s foreign shareholding has dropped over the quarter ended 30 June and that has index implications for future passive flows to HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN). 


HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger: Foreigners Sell HDFC; LTIM in NIFTY; JSP in NEXT50

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.</li>
<li>Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs/DELs for the BSE SENSEX, 100, and 200 Indices in the December 2023 Rebalance.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to trigger index changes in the next few days and we take a look at our expectations for these intra-review changes.
Apart from that, I see no other changes for SENSEX in December 2023. However, there could be up to six changes for both BSE 100 and BSE 200.


Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers</li>
<li>Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap </li>
<li>Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque</li>
</ul>


New HDFC Bank appears to have far better returns and credit metrics that large Asian peers
Pro-Forma amalgamation puts HDFC Bank as 2nd largest bank in Asia Pacific in market cap 
Comparably large banks in Asia are concentrated in China, where credit metrics are opaque


HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

<ul>
<li>HDFC Ltd will merge into HDFC Bank perhaps within some weeks</li>
<li>Amalgamation presumed benefits are a long list: scale, cross-sell, funding, loan mix, etc</li>
<li>Improvements in total funding costs may be immediate and significant, beyond expectations </li>
</ul>


HDFC Ltd will merge into HDFC Bank perhaps within some weeks
Amalgamation presumed benefits are a long list: scale, cross-sell, funding, loan mix, etc
Improvements in total funding costs may be immediate and significant, beyond expectations 


HDFC Ltd - Funding Benefits Can Be Immediate, Substantial

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

SENSEX Ad Hoc Rebalance: JSW Steel Replaces HDFC

JSW Steel (JSTL) replaces HDFC in the SENSEX at the close on 12 July. There will be pre-positions on JSTL but the stock could move higher on the...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger: Foreigners Sell HDFC; LTIM in NIFTY; JSP in NEXT50

LTIM will be added to the NIFTY50 while JSP will be added to the NEXT50. Foreign shareholding on HDFC has dropped in the last quarter and proforma...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

The merger is now done, and this is more relevant, highlighting now large HDFC Bank is now in Asia Pacific, not only in India.

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Ltd - Funding Benefits Can Be Immediate, Substantial

This has more detail on the merger benefits, than the note done today and this should be seen by people, as the merger is now done, today.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

SENSEX Ad Hoc Rebalance: JSW Steel Replaces HDFC

JSW Steel (JSTL) replaces HDFC in the SENSEX at the close on 12 July. There will be pre-positions on JSTL but the stock could move higher on the...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger: Foreigners Sell HDFC; LTIM in NIFTY; JSP in NEXT50

LTIM will be added to the NIFTY50 while JSP will be added to the NEXT50. Foreign shareholding on HDFC has dropped in the last quarter and proforma...

Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/​​​SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes

Adani Enterprises or JSW Steel Ltd could replace HDFC in SENSEX. Hindustan Aeronautics and Linde India could be the replacement names for HDFC in...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

HDFC Bank - Ranks 2nd After Merger Compared With Asia Pacific Banks

The merger is now done, and this is more relevant, highlighting now large HDFC Bank is now in Asia Pacific, not only in India.

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC Ltd - Funding Benefits Can Be Immediate, Substantial

This has more detail on the merger benefits, than the note done today and this should be seen by people, as the merger is now done, today.

Daniel Tabbush

Quiddity Leaderboard BSE/SENSEX Dec 23: HDFC Intra-Review Replacements & Other Expected Changes