Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.</li>
<li>The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was <em>supposed to</em> change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.</li>
<li>The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the NIFTY 50 and NIFTY 100 indices in the September 2023 rebalance.
The NIFTY Next 50 methodology was supposed to change in June 2023 but this has been kept on hold for now. This change could still take place before September 2023.
The HDFC/HDFC Bank Merger is expected to complete in the next few weeks and that could trigger intra-review index changes.


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics</li>
<li>Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.</li>
<li>Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.</li>
</ul>


Asia Ex-Japan investors move from underweight to a record overweight in Samsung Electronics
Samsung has been a key beneficiary of manager rotation over the last 6-months alongside BYD, Trip Com and Meituan.
Majority of funds positioned overweight with a record 81.4% of funds holding a position.  Samsung becomes one of the highest conviction holdings in the Asia Ex-Japan region.


Samsung Electronics:  Return of the King

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>What sets HDFC Bank apart from peers is stability, strength in profit, ROA, NPLs, NIM</li>
<li>Peers see volatile, high NPL ratios, where HDFC Bank may see NPLs at less than 1% soon</li>
<li>Amalgamation HDFC into HDFC Bank can see more interest, supported by fundamentals </li>
</ul>


What sets HDFC Bank apart from peers is stability, strength in profit, ROA, NPLs, NIM
Peers see volatile, high NPL ratios, where HDFC Bank may see NPLs at less than 1% soon
Amalgamation HDFC into HDFC Bank can see more interest, supported by fundamentals 


HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.</li>
<li>Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s last trading day would be 13 July.</li>
<li>The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NIFTYJR INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.
Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s last trading day would be 13 July.
The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the NIFTY Index, NIFTYJR INDEX and SENSEX Index.


HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Shriram Finance  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/piramal-enterprises-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14158:1" rel="noopener">Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN)</a> plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.</li>
<li>The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance.
The deal is very well flagged with Piramal having sold half its stake in 2019 and having publicly stated its intention to completely exit as well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.


Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

India

HDFC Bank Ltd. offers a wide range of services to the global corporate sector. The Bank provides corporate banking and custodial services and is active in the treasury and capital markets. HDFC also markets project advisory services and capital market products such as Global Deposit Receipts, Euro currency loans, and Euro currency bonds.

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HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

LTIMindtree and Jindal Steel could be NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 intra-review replacements for HDFC and these changes could be implemented at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Samsung Electronics: Return of the King

After a brief flirt with underweight in late 2022, active Asia Ex-Japan managers rotate back in to Samsung Electronics, pushing allocations towards...

Steven Holden

HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Stability and strength, sets HDFC Bank apart from its peers, as does it high ranking in system for loans outstanding. HDFC Finance amalgamation can...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep 23: Non F&O Stocks Dilemma and Replacements for HDFC

LTIMindtree and Jindal Steel could be NIFTY 50 and NIFTY Next 50 intra-review replacements for HDFC and these changes could be implemented at the...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Samsung Electronics: Return of the King

After a brief flirt with underweight in late 2022, active Asia Ex-Japan managers rotate back in to Samsung Electronics, pushing allocations towards...

Steven Holden

HDFC Bank - Stability, Strength Against India Peer Banks and Non-Banks

Stability and strength, sets HDFC Bank apart from its peers, as does it high ranking in system for loans outstanding. HDFC Finance amalgamation can...

Daniel Tabbush

HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

Shriram Finance Placement - Well Flagged Cleanup but Watch Out for the Recent Spike

Piramal Enterprises (PIEL IN) plans to raise around US$600m via selling its entire 8.3% stake in Shriram Finance. The deal is very well flagged,...

Sumeet Singh

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?