Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage</li>
<li>Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements</li>
<li>Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio </li>
</ul>


HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage
Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements
Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio 


Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Prabhudas Lilladhar

Prabhudas Lilladhar

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Prabhudas Lilladher is one of India's leading research based financial services organisation.

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onHDFC Bank HDFCB saw the best ever quarter after announcement of the merger as (1) deposit accretion was strong while loan growth was controlled, improving LDR (2) NIM slightly enhanced QoQ to 3.63% despite of a sharp fall in LDR QoQ indicating a preference towards pricing over growth and (3) balance sheet was further fortified by creation of floating provisions.</li><li>Adjusting for one-time ex-gratia of Rs15bn, core PPoP beat PLe by 3.7% led by better fee income and controlled opex.</li><li>Credila stake sale gains of Rs73.4bn and tax write-back of Rs38.2bn were utilized to create floating provisions of Rs109bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onHDFC Bank HDFCB saw the best ever quarter after announcement of the merger as (1) deposit accretion was strong while loan growth was controlled, improving LDR (2) NIM slightly enhanced QoQ to 3.63% despite of a sharp fall in LDR QoQ indicating a preference towards pricing over growth and (3) balance sheet was further fortified by creation of floating provisions.Adjusting for one-time ex-gratia of Rs15bn, core PPoP beat PLe by 3.7% led by better fee income and controlled opex.Credila stake sale gains of Rs73.4bn and tax write-back of Rs38.2bn were utilized to create floating provisions of Rs109bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) - Best Ever Quarter Post Merger Announcement

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Foreign shareholding in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.</li>
<li>The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.</li>
<li>There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:559:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US)</a> line was up 4.5% overnight.</li>
</ul>


Foreign shareholding in HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) has dropped to 54.83% and that results in foreign room crossing the 'magical' 25% mark.
The increase in foreign room could lead to passive trackers of a global index needing to buy 256m shares (US$5.3bn; 11.5x ADV) at the end of August.
There will definitely be positioning in the stock but there should still be upside in the stock. The HDFC Bank (ADR) (HDB US) line was up 4.5% overnight.


HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 47% over the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (25.1% return over the same period) by a wide margin.</li><li>A few picks that reported excellent returns included Cholamandalam Investment &amp; Finance Company (14.7%), Varun Beverages (14.2%), J.Kumar Infraprojects (9.9%), Federal Bank (9.4%) and TVS Motor Company (8.5%). </li><li>Pick of the Week (PoW): POW calls delivered an astounding monthly strike rate of 85% in Jun’24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Top Picks: We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 47% over the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50 index (25.1% return over the same period) by a wide margin.A few picks that reported excellent returns included Cholamandalam Investment &amp; Finance Company (14.7%), Varun Beverages (14.2%), J.Kumar Infraprojects (9.9%), Federal Bank (9.4%) and TVS Motor Company (8.5%). Pick of the Week (PoW): POW calls delivered an astounding monthly strike rate of 85% in Jun’24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Axis Research Scorecard Report for June 2024

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.</li>
<li>The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. </li>
<li>Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. </li>
</ul>


This is at a time a shocker and at a time, not. Because of rising regulatory requirements for NBFCs, this was to be expected at some point.
The deal pays Limited shareholders a slight premium vs previous close, but enables them to exit without a holdco discount. 
Early days yet regulatorily speaking, but accretive, and it makes a lot of sense. It will be appreciated. 


Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

We provide new 4QFYE24 data on 4 of the 10 Indian banks that have reported in our enlarged peer group; we rate HDFC Bank a buy, as well as Baroda...

Victor Galliano

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) - Best Ever Quarter Post Merger Announcement

Prabhudas Lilladher's research report onHDFC Bank HDFCB saw the best ever quarter after announcement of the merger as (1) deposit accretion was...

Prabhudas Lilladhar

HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN): Foreign Room Crosses 25%; Index Implications & Positioning for US$5bn+ Buying

HDFC Bank announced its June-end shareholding last evening. Foreign room is higher than 25% and the ADR jumped 4.5% overnight. Passive trackers...

Brian Freitas

Axis Research Scorecard Report for June 2024

We are proud to share that our Axis Top Picks basket delivered impressive returns of 47% over the last one year, beating the benchmark Nifty 50...

Axis Direct

Shocker! HDFC Bank To Merge With HDFC Limited

HDFC Limited and HDFC Bank announced a surprise" Scheme of Amalgamation this morning. It offers a slight premium, and lots of synergies, but most...

Travis Lundy

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