Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.</li><li>The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   </li><li>In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  </li></ul>

It all went a bit potty in 2021-2022, and the market went from overextended lack of common sense to some mean reversion.The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally being called out.   In short, Head Fakes are red herrings that divert attention from what is already happening.  

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>HDFC reported a PAT of INR44.5b in 2QFY23 (5% beat), up 18% YoY, primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate of ~18% (because of higher dividend income).</li><li>Core PPOP grew 15% YoY to INR43.8b. Margin was stable QoQ at 3.4% in 1HFY23.</li><li>Credit costs fell by ~4bp QoQ to ~32bp, aided by a decline of ~20bp in GS3 and resolutions in the nonIndividual segment.  Disbursements in the Individual segment grew 36% YoY to INR440b.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC reported a PAT of INR44.5b in 2QFY23 (5% beat), up 18% YoY, primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate of ~18% (because of higher dividend income).Core PPOP grew 15% YoY to INR43.8b. Margin was stable QoQ at 3.4% in 1HFY23.Credit costs fell by ~4bp QoQ to ~32bp, aided by a decline of ~20bp in GS3 and resolutions in the nonIndividual segment.  Disbursements in the Individual segment grew 36% YoY to INR440b.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC - Operating Performance in Line; Retail Loan Growth Healthy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We expect loan growth momentum for banks to sustain on a sequential basis, mainly driven by Retail/SME segments</li>
<li>Deposit growth continues to remain range-bound. However, most banks have reported a healthy CASA growth aiding CoF, thereby supporting margins.</li>
<li>Positive result plays: SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, CanFin Homes, SBI Cards, AU Small Finance Bank</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


We expect loan growth momentum for banks to sustain on a sequential basis, mainly driven by Retail/SME segments
Deposit growth continues to remain range-bound. However, most banks have reported a healthy CASA growth aiding CoF, thereby supporting margins.
Positive result plays: SBI, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, CanFin Homes, SBI Cards, AU Small Finance Bank

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

BFSI Q4FY22 Result Preview – Growth Momentum Robust; Asset Quality Pressures to Ease

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<ul>
<li>Credit growth picking up; lower provisions to drive earnings We expect strong earnings performance from banks in 4QFY22, driven by: (1) improving credit growth (systemic growth 8.5% YoY) (2) stable margins and (3) lower credit costs.</li>
<li>Data suggests upturn in credit growth across segments (Retail and Corporate).</li>
<li>Within the Retail segment, Housing has continued to show sustained traction while unsecured credit has been improving sequentially.</li>
<li>Large private banks are expected to grow at a highe...(continued).</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Credit growth picking up; lower provisions to drive earnings We expect strong earnings performance from banks in 4QFY22, driven by: (1) improving credit growth (systemic growth 8.5% YoY) (2) stable margins and (3) lower credit costs.
Data suggests upturn in credit growth across segments (Retail and Corporate).
Within the Retail segment, Housing has continued to show sustained traction while unsecured credit has been improving sequentially.
Large private banks are expected to grow at a highe...(continued).

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Banking & Financials Sector: Credit Growth Picking Up; Lower Provisions to Drive Earnings

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay

Emkay Global Financial Services Limited

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is a leader in the financial services sector, actively creating wealth for our clients for over two decades. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>HDFCB has announced the long-awaited reverse merger of parent HDFCL.</li><li>The merger should fulfill the implicit RBI policy of 1) not allowing a bank to be owned by an NBFC/HFC, and 2) having its lending business housed mainly in the bank.</li><li>It should also generate cost/business synergies in the medium-to-long run.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFCB has announced the long-awaited reverse merger of parent HDFCL.The merger should fulfill the implicit RBI policy of 1) not allowing a bank to be owned by an NBFC/HFC, and 2) having its lending business housed mainly in the bank.It should also generate cost/business synergies in the medium-to-long run.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HDFC Bank: Mega Merger to Drive Economies of Scale, Cost/Business Synergies

India

Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. HDFC provides housing finance company. The Company provides wide range of housing loans, loan for home improvement, extensions, top ups, and non housing loans and loans for non resident Indian (NRI). HDFC serves customers in India, kuwait, Singapore, Oman, UAE, and the United Kingdom.

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HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)

Head Fakes

The need for QE and negative yields for sustaining innovation and maintaining valuation VC investments, Marked to Myth investments, are finally...

Untying The Gordian Knot

HDFC - Operating Performance in Line; Retail Loan Growth Healthy

HDFC reported a PAT of INR44.5b in 2QFY23 (5% beat), up 18% YoY, primarily driven by a lower effective tax rate of ~18% (because of higher dividend...

Motilal Oswal

BFSI Q4FY22 Result Preview – Growth Momentum Robust; Asset Quality Pressures to Ease

We expect loan growth momentum for banks to sustain on a sequential basis, mainly driven by Retail/SME segments. Deposit growth continues to remain...

Axis Direct

Banking & Financials Sector: Credit Growth Picking Up; Lower Provisions to Drive Earnings

Credit growth picking up; lower provisions to drive earnings We expect strong earnings performance from banks in 4QFY22, driven by: (1) improving...

Nirmal Bang

HDFC Bank: Mega Merger to Drive Economies of Scale, Cost/Business Synergies

HDFCB has announced the long-awaited reverse merger of parent HDFCL.The merger should fulfill the implicit RBI policy of 1) not allowing a bank...

Emkay

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