Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28308:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS)</a> announced on June 7th that it successfully completed its rights offering worth 1.2 trillion won. The company will use the proceeds to expand its aerospace investments. The expected uses of the funds from the rights offering are as follows: (M&amp;A/investments of other companies - 700 billion won; working capital - 390 billion won; and facility investments - 110 billion won).</p><p>The current share price of Hanwha Systems is 17,550 won, which is 18.9% higher than the rights offering price of 14,750 won. The shareholders that participated in the rights offering could gain some profits if the price does not drop much prior to the new shares listing date (June 23rd). </p><p>In recent years, Hanwha Aerospace has been investing in high quality overseas companies with technological expertise in the aerospace industry. In particular, the company has been showing a lot of interest in the urban air mobility (UAM) such as flying cars. The company plans to develop an air taxi aircraft by 2024 and start air taxi pilot operations from 2025. In addition to UAM, the company also plans to aggressively invest in satellite communications and digital platforms. </p><p>According to the company, it received 7.4% higher purchase orders for the rights offering than the amount raised in the subscription for the company's shareholders and ESOP on June 3rd and 4th. Although the demand from the ESOP fell a bit short of allotted amount, the overall rights offering was successful, driven by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a> (largest shareholder with a 48.99% stake) and H Solution (2nd largest shareholder with a 13.4% stake) that subscribed 120% of their allocated amount. </p>

Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) announced on June 7th that it successfully completed its rights offering worth 1.2 trillion won. The company will use the proceeds to expand its aerospace investments. The expected uses of the funds from the rights offering are as follows: (M&amp;A/investments of other companies - 700 billion won; working capital - 390 billion won; and facility investments - 110 billion won).The current share price of Hanwha Systems is 17,550 won, which is 18.9% higher than the rights offering price of 14,750 won. The shareholders that participated in the rights offering could gain some profits if the price does not drop much prior to the new shares listing date (June 23rd). In recent years, Hanwha Aerospace has been investing in high quality overseas companies with technological expertise in the aerospace industry. In particular, the company has been showing a lot of interest in the urban air mobility (UAM) such as flying cars. The company plans to develop an air taxi aircraft by 2024 and start air taxi pilot operations from 2025. In addition to UAM, the company also plans to aggressively invest in satellite communications and digital platforms. According to the company, it received 7.4% higher purchase orders for the rights offering than the amount raised in the subscription for the company's shareholders and ESOP on June 3rd and 4th. Although the demand from the ESOP fell a bit short of allotted amount, the overall rights offering was successful, driven by Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) (largest shareholder with a 48.99% stake) and H Solution (2nd largest shareholder with a 13.4% stake) that subscribed 120% of their allocated amount. 

Hanwha Systems: Rights Offering Results (Higher Short Term Volatility but Bullish Longer Term)

Global Special Situations & Strategy, SR Services Ltd

David Lepper

Global Special Situations & Strategy

SR Services Ltd

SR Services provides Strategic Knowledge and Solutions services for Family Offices and Corporate Business. 

We deliver this via advisory services, strategic planning, opportunity analysis/sourcing, as well as solution implementation. 

Whilst, we create intellectual discipline and operational leverage for your projects or daily activities, our ultimate objective is to empower whilst enhancing your decision making. 

Strategic Knowledge and Solutions

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.</p>

Our screen looks for high valuation multiples presented by companies with significant earnings growth forecasts, as well as financial indicators that suggest balance sheet stress. 34 stocks appear in our Q2 2021 screen, versus 25 in Q1 2021 and 15 in Q4 2020. Our Q2 2021 screen shows a reduction in average stock rank to 65.18 from 70.8 points compared to the Q1 2020 screen, placing the stocks lower into the second quartile of the market and showing a deterioration in fundamental and technical aspects. Whilst this is a 7.6% decline, we see this data as tainted by trailing fundamentals. As we highlighted in previous commentaries, we expect the market to see a defined separation of Quality, Value and Relative Momentum over the next few quarters. The erosion is not unexpected as we see a wave of updated forecasts.

Screening the Silk Road: Q2 2021 High Risk Names to Avoid

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<p>I track a total of 141 sector pairs in Korea. Starting this insight, I grouped them into three groups: 1. Financials, 2. Retail, and 3. Industrials.</p><hr><h2>Financials</h2><p>4 pairs from the Financials group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 (or close) and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average. Of these, <strong>Hana Financial/Shinhan Financial</strong> and <strong>Hyundai Marine/DB Insurance</strong> warrant attention.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="200">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 1 (Long)"}'>Comp 1 (Long)</td>
<td style="width: 190px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 2 (Short)"}'>Comp 2 (Short)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 64.5455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation coefficient"}'>180-day correlation coefficient</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 82.7273px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)"}'>Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]">Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 190px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Samsung Securities Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]">Samsung Securities Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 64.5455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.222273476903716}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]">-1.22</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7539862250329782}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[0]C[3]">0.75</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 82.7273px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6991098567863366}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[2]C[-3]">0.70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[3]">Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd</td>
<td style="width: 190px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"NH Investment &amp; Securities Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[3]">NH Investment &amp; Securities Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 64.5455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.1519173688233821}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]">-1.15</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7418291376039101}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[2]C[3]">0.74</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 82.7273px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7031067314990199}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[1]C[3]">0.70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hana Financial Group Inc"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]"><strong>Hana Financial Group Inc</strong></td>
<td style="width: 190px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]"><strong>Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 64.5455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0788984328569544}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.08</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9401716746799647}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[2]C[3]"><strong>0.94</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 82.7273px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":1.021970873112603}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[0]C[5]"><strong>1.02</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 241.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance Co., Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[7]"><strong>Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance Co., Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="width: 190px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"DB Insurance Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-4]C[7]"><strong>DB Insurance Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 64.5455px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0725124068124459}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.07</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 60.9091px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9161479896868121}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[2]C[3]"><strong>0.92</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 82.7273px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.756650231829711}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[-1]C[7]"><strong>0.76</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Retail</h2><p>2 pairs from the Retail group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average: <strong>Lotte Shopping/GS Retail</strong> and <strong>Lotte Shopping/Hyundai Department</strong>.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="200">
<col width="200">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 1 (Long)"}'>Comp 1 (Long)</td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 2 (Short)"}'>Comp 2 (Short)</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation coefficient"}'>180-day correlation coefficient</td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)"}'>Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lotte Shopping Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]"><strong>Lotte Shopping Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"GS Retail Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]"><strong>GS Retail Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.5275880593828013}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.53</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8726370244086025}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[0]C[3]"><strong>0.87</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8778679151859091}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[2]C[-3]"><strong>0.88</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Lotte Shopping Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]"><strong>Lotte Shopping Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]"><strong>Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.126049210184334}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.13</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9181905655104922}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[1]C[3]"><strong>0.92</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8654420144103113}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[0]C[3]"><strong>0.87</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><h2>Industrials</h2><p>4 pairs from the Retail group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 (or close) while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average.</p><p>Of these, the Celltrion siblings are the most correlated/cointegrated ones with a substantial diversion. I mentioned their trading dynamics in the previous insight. I will cover <strong>KAI/Hanwha Aerospace </strong>and <strong>Korea Shipbuilding/Hyundai Mipo</strong> in this post.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
<col width="70">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 230px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 1 (Long)"}'>Comp 1 (Long)</td>
<td style="width: 194.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Comp 2 (Short)"}'>Comp 2 (Short)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 80px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Sigma on a 20-day moving average"}'>Sigma on a 20-day moving average</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.1818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"180-day correlation coefficient"}'>180-day correlation coefficient</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 77.2727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)"}'>Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 230px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]"><strong>Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="width: 194.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hanwha Aerospace Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-1]C[1]"><strong>Hanwha Aerospace Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 80px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.2612782453636326}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.26</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.1818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9151301901660448}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[2]C[3]"><strong>0.92</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 77.2727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6164208180229479}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[2]C[1]"><strong>0.62</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 230px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion, Inc."}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[3]">Celltrion, Inc.</td>
<td style="width: 194.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-2]C[3]">Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 80px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.178153322167809}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]">-1.18</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.1818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8365102631201596}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[2]C[3]">0.84</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 77.2727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7643376618440517}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[1]C[3]">0.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 230px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion Pharm Inc"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]">Celltrion Pharm Inc</td>
<td style="width: 194.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-3]C[5]">Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 80px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.066075796850893}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]">-1.07</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.1818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.8799929165201812}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[3]C[3]">0.88</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 77.2727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.7823707069161424}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[0]C[7]">0.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 230px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn Co Ltd"}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[9]"><strong>Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn Co Ltd</strong></td>
<td style="width: 194.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd."}' data-sheets-formula="=Data!R[-5]C[9]"><strong>Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd.</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 80px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":-1.0295619383635715}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=R[8]C[-1]"><strong>-1.03</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 58.1818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.9657685058341984}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Sort!R[3]C[3]"><strong>0.97</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 77.2727px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.6811111503062213}' data-sheets-numberformat='[null,2,"#,##0.00",1]' data-sheets-formula="=Beta!R[-2]C[11]"><strong>0.68</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="5" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: KRX"}'>Source: KRX</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table>

I track a total of 141 sector pairs in Korea. Starting this insight, I grouped them into three groups: 1. Financials, 2. Retail, and 3. Industrials.Financials4 pairs from the Financials group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 (or close) and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average. Of these, Hana Financial/Shinhan Financial and Hyundai Marine/DB Insurance warrant attention.









Comp 1 (Long)
Comp 2 (Short)
Sigma on a 20-day moving average
180-day correlation coefficient
Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)


Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd
Samsung Securities Co Ltd
-1.22
0.75
0.70


Mirae Asset Securities Co Ltd
NH Investment &amp; Securities Co Ltd
-1.15
0.74
0.70


Hana Financial Group Inc
Shinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.
-1.08
0.94
1.02


Hyundai Marine &amp; Fire Insurance Co., Ltd
DB Insurance Co Ltd
-1.07
0.92
0.76

Source: KRX

Retail2 pairs from the Retail group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average: Lotte Shopping/GS Retail and Lotte Shopping/Hyundai Department.









Comp 1 (Long)
Comp 2 (Short)
Sigma on a 20-day moving average
180-day correlation coefficient
Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)


Lotte Shopping Co Ltd
GS Retail Co Ltd
-1.53
0.87
0.88


Lotte Shopping Co Ltd
Hyundai Department Store Co Ltd
-1.13
0.92
0.87

Source: KRX

Industrials4 pairs from the Retail group have a 180-day correlation coefficient above 0.75 and a 180-day daily price return beta above 0.70 (or close) while sitting below -1.0σ on a 20-day moving average.Of these, the Celltrion siblings are the most correlated/cointegrated ones with a substantial diversion. I mentioned their trading dynamics in the previous insight. I will cover KAI/Hanwha Aerospace and Korea Shipbuilding/Hyundai Mipo in this post.









Comp 1 (Long)
Comp 2 (Short)
Sigma on a 20-day moving average
180-day correlation coefficient
Cointegration coefficient (180-day price Δ beta)


Korea Aerospace Industries Ltd
Hanwha Aerospace Co Ltd
-1.26
0.92
0.62


Celltrion, Inc.
Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd
-1.18
0.84
0.76


Celltrion Pharm Inc
Celltrion HealthCare Co Ltd
-1.07
0.88
0.78


Korea Shipbuilding &amp;Offshore Engn Co Ltd
Hyundai Mipo Dockyard Co., Ltd.
-1.03
0.97
0.68

Source: KRX



Korea Sector Pair Trade: Financials, Retail, & Industrials

<p>Hanwha Systems' ₩1.2T offering subscription rights trade begins <strong>May 13 (this Thursday)</strong>. It will last for 5 trading sessions until May 20.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Timetable"}'>Timetable</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Subscription rights trade beginning"}'><strong>Subscription rights trade</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 338.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44329}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 5. 13 ~ 5. 20</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Final pricing"}'><strong>Final pricing</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 338.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44347}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 5. 31</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364.545px;">Subscription</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 338.182px;">2021. 6. 03</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364.545px;">Payment</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 338.182px;">2021. 6. 11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 364.545px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Listing"}'><strong>Listing</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 338.182px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44370}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"yyyy. m. d","3":1}'><strong>2021. 6. 23</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody></table><p><strong>The 1st round price settled at ₩15,800, giving an 11.73% discount to the last close</strong>. This price of ₩15,800 will likely serve as our ceiling price in this offering.</p><table class="table table-striped">
<colgroup>
<col width="100">
<col width="100">
</colgroup>
<tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round pricing"}'>1st round pricing</td></tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Calculation period"}'>Calculation period</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"2021.03.20 ~ 2021.04.19"}'><div><div>2021.03.20 ~ 2021.04.19</div></div></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference date"}'><strong>Reference date</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":44305}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":5,"2":"mmmm d","3":1}'><strong>April 19</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1-month volume weighted average price"}'>1-month volume-weighted average price (VWAP)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20817}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩20,817</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1-week volume weighted average price"}'>1-week volume-weighted average price (VWAP)</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20222}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩20,222</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1-day close on April 19"}'>1-day close on April 19</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20600}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩20,600</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"(A+B+C)/3"}'>(A+B+C)/3</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20546}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'>₩20,546</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Reference price: Min(C,D)"}'><strong>Reference Price: Min(C,D)</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":20546}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}' data-sheets-formula="=R[-1]C[0]"><strong>₩20,546</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Discount rate"}'>Discount rate</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":0.15}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":3,"2":"0.00%","3":1}'>15.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Capital increase rate"}'>Capital increase rate</td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"71,39%"}'>71,39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 370.909px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"1st round price: Reference Price × (1 - 15%) / [1 + (71.39% × 15%)]"}'><strong>1st round price: Reference Price × (1 - 15%) / [1 + (71.39% × 15%)]</strong></td>
<td style="text-align: right; width: 331.818px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":3,"3":15800}' data-sheets-numberformat='{"1":4,"2":"[$₩]#,##0","3":1}'><strong>₩15,800</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr><td colspan="2" rowspan="1" style="width: 723.636px;" data-sheets-value='{"1":2,"2":"Source: DART"}'>Source: DART</td></tr>
</tbody>
</table><hr><p><strong>Why does this subscription rights trade deserve attention?</strong></p><div><ul>
<li>Korea now has the short-selling restriction to ban short-sellers from participating in a rights offer. Those having shorted between a day after an offering announcement day and an offering price-fixing day face the restriction.</li>
<li>But this restriction applies only to the offerings announced after April 6. <strong>This Hanwha Systems offering allows us to enjoy the loophole for the last time,</strong> as the offering announcement was made on <strong>March 29</strong>.</li>
</ul></div>

Hanwha Systems' ₩1.2T offering subscription rights trade begins May 13 (this Thursday). It will last for 5 trading sessions until May 20.
Timetable

Subscription rights trade
2021. 5. 13 ~ 5. 20


Final pricing
2021. 5. 31


Subscription
2021. 6. 03


Payment
2021. 6. 11


Listing
2021. 6. 23

Source: DART
The 1st round price settled at ₩15,800, giving an 11.73% discount to the last close. This price of ₩15,800 will likely serve as our ceiling price in this offering.





1st round pricing

Calculation period
2021.03.20 ~ 2021.04.19


Reference date
April 19


1-month volume-weighted average price (VWAP)
₩20,817


1-week volume-weighted average price (VWAP)
₩20,222


1-day close on April 19
₩20,600


(A+B+C)/3
₩20,546


Reference Price: Min(C,D)
₩20,546


Discount rate
15.00%


Capital increase rate
71,39%


1st round price: Reference Price × (1 - 15%) / [1 + (71.39% × 15%)]
₩15,800

Source: DART

Why does this subscription rights trade deserve attention?
Korea now has the short-selling restriction to ban short-sellers from participating in a rights offer. Those having shorted between a day after an offering announcement day and an offering price-fixing day face the restriction.
But this restriction applies only to the offerings announced after April 6. This Hanwha Systems offering allows us to enjoy the loophole for the last time, as the offering announcement was made on March 29.


Hanwha Systems Subscription Rights Trading Begins May 13: Should Aim at the First Day

<p>Our NAV analysis of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10619:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS)</a> suggests NAV of 3,845 billion won (51,298 won per share). This represents a 62% upside from the current price of 31,600 won. The biggest component of the company's value is its investments in other Hanwha Group related companies. Hanwha Corp's 37% stake in Hanwha Solution is worth 3.3 trillion won, which represents 60% of the value of the company (pre-holdco discount).</p><p>With the resumption of the partial short selling of Korean stocks on May 3rd, more hedge funds and other active investors will likely to employ pair trade strategies involving holdcos and opcos in Korea. The pair between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Solution is the one which have shown one of widest gaps in share price performance in the past year. In our view, there is a good chance that this price gap narrows between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Solution in the coming months.</p>

Our NAV analysis of Hanwha Corporation (000880 KS) suggests NAV of 3,845 billion won (51,298 won per share). This represents a 62% upside from the current price of 31,600 won. The biggest component of the company's value is its investments in other Hanwha Group related companies. Hanwha Corp's 37% stake in Hanwha Solution is worth 3.3 trillion won, which represents 60% of the value of the company (pre-holdco discount).With the resumption of the partial short selling of Korean stocks on May 3rd, more hedge funds and other active investors will likely to employ pair trade strategies involving holdcos and opcos in Korea. The pair between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Solution is the one which have shown one of widest gaps in share price performance in the past year. In our view, there is a good chance that this price gap narrows between Hanwha Corp and Hanwha Solution in the coming months.

Our NAV Analysis of Hanwha Corp and A Pair Trade with Hanwha Solution

South Korea

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

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Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)

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