Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>As expected, there are no constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX)</a> in December. However, there are float and capping changes for a lot of stocks.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.29bn (US$679m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The largest selling will be on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a> offset by buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


As expected, there are no constituent changes for the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) in December. However, there are float and capping changes for a lot of stocks.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.8% leading to a one-way trade of HK$5.29bn (US$679m). There are 4 stocks with over 1 day of ADV to trade.
The largest selling will be on Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) offset by buying in Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 


HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Round-Trip Trade of US$1.4bn

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/li-auto-inc-3dbe6187-544f-40dd-b9f9-72fba9c0110e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33811:1" rel="noopener">Li Auto (2015 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-apptec-co-ltd-bf4a1265-beef-48b6-b82d-29308426030f" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27795:1" rel="noopener">WuXi AppTec (2359 HK)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng</a> at the close on 1 December taking the number of index constituents to 82.</li>
<li>Neither inclusion is a surprise. The non-inclusion of primary listed foreign companies is a bigger surprise - that could take place at the next rebalance.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 3.53%, estimated one-way trade is HK$6.88bn (US$882m). Capping leads to buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba (9988 HK)</a> and selling in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Li Auto (2015 HK) and WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng at the close on 1 December taking the number of index constituents to 82.
Neither inclusion is a surprise. The non-inclusion of primary listed foreign companies is a bigger surprise - that could take place at the next rebalance.
Estimated one-way turnover is 3.53%, estimated one-way trade is HK$6.88bn (US$882m). Capping leads to buying in Alibaba (9988 HK) and selling in Tencent (700 HK) and HSBC (5 HK). 


Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Li Auto (2015) & WuXi AppTec (2359) Added

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK)</a> is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wuxi-xdc-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39917:1" rel="noopener">WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK)</a> will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.</li>
<li>Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.</li>
</ul>



WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) is looking to raise up to HK$4.07bn (US$521m) in its IPO by selling 197.6m shares at HK$20.6/share, valuing the company at HK$24.67bn (US$3.16bn).

WuXi XDC Cayman (1877628D HK) will not get Fast Entry to any indices but should be added to the HSCI and to Southbound Stock Connect in March.
Inclusion in other indices will take longer with the highest probability of index inclusion starting in September 2024.


WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

<ul>
<li>Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.</li>
<li>Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI post market close.</li>
<li>Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.</li>
</ul>


Wednesday will be a busy day as positions are put on and unwound following announcement of the changes to the MSC indices.
Friday will end the review cutoff for the ASX indices and Hang Seng Indexes will announce the December changes for the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI post market close.
Another week of large outflows for China focused ETFs with redemptions across all the major indices.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.</li><li>While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.</li><li>Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.</li></ul>

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1.While this divergence is gradually gaining mainstream recognition, emerging markets have been well ahead of the curve.Consequently, disinflationary surprises continue to be prevalent.

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

HSTECH Index Rebalance: No Constituent Changes; Round-Trip Trade of US$1.4bn

There are no constituent changes for the HSTECH in Dec. Float and capping changes will result in a round-trip trade of US$1.4bn. There could be...

Brian Freitas

Hang Seng Index Rebalance: Li Auto (2015) & WuXi AppTec (2359) Added

Li Auto and WuXi AppTec will join the HSI at the close on 1 Dec. Non-inclusion of foreign companies is a surprise. Capping increases turnover and...

Brian Freitas

WuXi XDC (2268 HK): Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

WuXi XDC is looking to raise up to US$521m in its IPO. A large chunk is being taken by cornerstone investors. HSCI and Stock Connect inclusion...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: SSE50, Chinext/50, Renesas, Tencent, Amman Mineral

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

EM by EM #29: Biden’s Party, EM’s Hangover & Scholz’s Nightmare

Here at Steno Research, our primary concern has been growth rather than inflation since around the end of H1. While this divergence is gradually...

Steno Research