Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Takeaway:China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape.</li><li>Despite China’s slowing growth, potential policy responses might paradoxically exacerbate deflationary pressures.</li><li>We anticipate rising inflation risks linked to potential supply shocks resulting from geopolitical developments.</li></ul>

Takeaway:China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape.Despite China’s slowing growth, potential policy responses might paradoxically exacerbate deflationary pressures.We anticipate rising inflation risks linked to potential supply shocks resulting from geopolitical developments.

EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.</li>
<li>We see a high probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zx-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36624:1" rel="noopener">Zx Inc</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/flowing-cloud-technology-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36461:1" rel="noopener">Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK)</a> in the index. There is a lower probability of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4paradigm" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34465:1" rel="noopener">4Paradigm (6682 HK)</a> replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cmge-technology-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:451:1" rel="noopener"> CMGE Tech (302 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Capping will result in passives buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> and selling <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kuaishou-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29043:1" rel="noopener">JD.com (9618 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the HSIII was 29 December. The changes will be announced on 16 February and become effective after the close 1 March.
We see a high probability of Zx Inc replacing Flowing Cloud Technology (6610 HK) in the index. There is a lower probability of 4Paradigm (6682 HK) replacing  CMGE Tech (302 HK). 
Capping will result in passives buying Meituan (3690 HK) and selling Tencent (700 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK), JD.com (9618 HK) and Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 


Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance Preview: ZX Inc Could Replace Flowing Cloud

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/posco-dx-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5198:1" rel="noopener">Posco DX (022100 KS)</a> continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.</li>
<li>There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a> ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.</li>
<li>Creations continued in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-223f5da3-7054-4e4f-bc55-b7f0852c2581" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31998:1" rel="noopener">iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US)</a> ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.</li>
</ul>



Posco DX (022100 KS) continues to drop following its section transfer from the KOSDAQ market to the KOSPI market. Short interest in the stock nearly halved in December.
There were big net inflows to China ETFs with creations in CSI 300 Index ETFs and redemptions in ETFs tracking the CSI 500 Index and CSI 1000 Index.
Creations continued in the iShares Emerging Markets ex China (EMXC US) ETF with units outstanding reaching a new high.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> pops up as a potential deletion yet again and a much lower rank raises the probability of deletion to just short of a near certainty.</li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene (6160 HK)</a> failing the Velocity Test for Tradeable Indexes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>'s deletion from the index should result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)</a>'s inclusion. </li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.47% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$946m. Passives will need to trade over 2.5x ADV on both stocks.</li>
</ul>



Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) pops up as a potential deletion yet again and a much lower rank raises the probability of deletion to just short of a near certainty.
With BeiGene (6160 HK) failing the Velocity Test for Tradeable Indexes, Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)'s deletion from the index should result in China Unicom Hong Kong (762 HK)'s inclusion. 
Estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.47% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$946m. Passives will need to trade over 2.5x ADV on both stocks.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time

<ul><li>Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.</li><li>Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.</li><li>Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.</li></ul>

Foreign confidence remains a massive issue for investment and equity pricing.Efforts for diplomatic damage control seem to be a cheap option when contrasted to the domestic issues related to adding more leverage to the system as an alternative.Domestic confidence is arguably even lower with households seeing little light at the end of the tunnel. We can see why they won’t.

EM by EM #35:  China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

China

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is a free-float capitalization-weighted index comprised of H-Shares listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and included in the Hang Seng Mainland Composite Index. The base value of this index is 2000 as of Jan 3, 2000. This index replaced the old HSCE index on Oct. 3, 2001.

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)

EM by EM #39: All Roads Out of China Lead to Goods Disinflation

Takeaway: China serves as the primary deflationary force in the global macroeconomic landscape. Despite China’s slowing growth, policy responses...

Steno Research

Hang Seng Internet & IT Index Rebalance Preview: ZX Inc Could Replace Flowing Cloud

ZX Inc could replace Flowing Cloud in the HSIII in March. Fourth Paradigm could just miss out on index inclusion. Estimated one-way turnover is...

Brian Freitas

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSCEI, HSCI, KRX New Deal, NIFTY50, NEXT50, CNXBANK

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Zhongsheng (881 HK) Should Go This Time

Zhongsheng's rank has dropped a lot and index deletion appears to be a certainty. China Unicom is a potential add. There is over 2.5x ADV to trade...

Brian Freitas

EM by EM #35: China 2024: Keeping the Beast Alive

We will be watching the Chinese credit impulse closely for clues on whether to take on positive bets on China and China proxies in 2024.

Steno Research