Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.</li>
<li>Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.</li>
<li>Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.</li>
</ul>


The data is crucial for year-end dividend arbitrage. We can strategically target Single-stock futures' spread basis widening due to information timeliness disparities, focusing on companies with high dividend yields.
Furthermore, it offers valuable insights into assessing the December-March spread levels, potentially leading to a rollover distortion in KOSPI 200 futures' calendar spread trading.
Postponed yearend dividend record dates to March may clash with first-quarter dividends, offering a new trading opportunity. this unique situation could significantly impact spot and futures prices.


Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Private Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>It was reported in numerous local media that Viva Republica has sent several RFPs to several large domestic securities companies to be underwriters of a potential IPO in 2024. </li>
<li>Viva Republica is one of the largest Korean fintech companies. Market value of Viva Republica is estimated at more than 9 trillion won.</li>
<li>E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing of Viva Republica. </li>
</ul>


It was reported in numerous local media that Viva Republica has sent several RFPs to several large domestic securities companies to be underwriters of a potential IPO in 2024. 
Viva Republica is one of the largest Korean fintech companies. Market value of Viva Republica is estimated at more than 9 trillion won.
E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing of Viva Republica. 


Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean banks in 2024. </li>
<li>On average, if H-Index declines below 5,699, then the majority of the investors on these H-Index could start to incur major losses starting 1Q 2024. </li>
<li>Amid challenges of lower interest rates expectations and higher losses from ELS products, major Korean banks could be more hesitant on share buybacks and increasing their dividends in 1H 2024.</li>
</ul>


The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean banks in 2024. 
On average, if H-Index declines below 5,699, then the majority of the investors on these H-Index could start to incur major losses starting 1Q 2024. 
Amid challenges of lower interest rates expectations and higher losses from ELS products, major Korean banks could be more hesitant on share buybacks and increasing their dividends in 1H 2024.


ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

<ul>
<li>The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products. </li>
<li>The three major listed banking groups (KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, and Hana Financial) could be burdened with nearly 86% of the HSCEI linked ELS losses (close to 2.6 trillion won). </li>
<li>Major Korean banks may need a <em>"Hail Mary"</em> pass to avoid this disaster. Such positive outlook would include sharply rising HSCEI index in 2024, similar to what happened in 2016. </li>
</ul>


The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products. 
The three major listed banking groups (KB Financial, Shinhan Financial, and Hana Financial) could be burdened with nearly 86% of the HSCEI linked ELS losses (close to 2.6 trillion won). 
Major Korean banks may need a "Hail Mary" pass to avoid this disaster. Such positive outlook would include sharply rising HSCEI index in 2024, similar to what happened in 2016. 


ELS Losses Related to Hong Kong H-Index Could Top Nearly 3 Trillion Won for Major Korean Banks in 2024

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>In our latest South Korean banks screener; we switch from Hana Financial to KB Financial as our preferred Korean banks pick</li>
<li>NPLs and precautionary quality credits continue on a rising trend, whilst KB has controlled its NPL ratio and precautionary ratio better than most to 3Q23</li>
<li>KB has a low PBV ratio relative to its ROE, rising post-provision returns, a healthy CET1 ratio and a healthy LDR; Kakaobank is one for the watchlist</li>
</ul>


In our latest South Korean banks screener; we switch from Hana Financial to KB Financial as our preferred Korean banks pick
NPLs and precautionary quality credits continue on a rising trend, whilst KB has controlled its NPL ratio and precautionary ratio better than most to 3Q23
KB has a low PBV ratio relative to its ROE, rising post-provision returns, a healthy CET1 ratio and a healthy LDR; Kakaobank is one for the watchlist


S Korean Banks Screen; KB Financial (105560 KS) Most Compelling on Valuations, Return Trends & PEG

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean...

Douglas Kim

S Korean Banks Screen; KB Financial (105560 KS) Most Compelling on Valuations, Return Trends & PEG

KB Financial is our preferred pick for S Korean banks due to good control of NPL & precautionary ratios, low PBV ratio, rising returns, and strong...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Comprehensive List: 359 Companies on KOSPI & KOSDAQ Deferring Yearend Dividend Record Dates

I've obtained the latest list of companies rescheduling dividend record dates to next year. Please check the attached Excel file. In the KOSPI, 119...

Sanghyun Park

Key Beneficiaries of a Potential Viva Republica IPO in 2024

E World, Hanwha Securities, Hana Financial, and Korea Electronic Certification Co are major public companies that should benefit from the listing...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses for HSCEI Index Could Result in Lowering Dividend Expectations for Korean Banks in 2024

The equity linked securities (ELS) losses related to Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) could lower dividend expectations for Korean...

Douglas Kim

ELS Losses Related to Hong Kong H-Index Could Top Nearly 3 Trillion Won for Major Korean Banks in 2024

The FSS has launched a formal investigation into KB Kookmin bank due to potentially massive losses related to the HSCEI linked ELS products.

Douglas Kim

S Korean Banks Screen; KB Financial (105560 KS) Most Compelling on Valuations, Return Trends & PEG

​KB Financial is our preferred pick for S Korean banks due to good control of NPL & precautionary ratios, low PBV ratio, rising returns, and strong...

Victor Galliano

KB Financial is our preferred pick for S Korean banks due to good control of NPL & precautionary ratios, low PBV ratio, rising returns, and strong...