Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Profitability ratio trends were mixed in 3Q24, with most of the South Korean banks seeing improved post-provision returns to September-end, helped by generally lower cost of risk trends</li>
<li>Hana Financial remains our big-cap pick for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for its inclusion in a planned Value-Up index rebalancing scheduled for December</li>
<li>Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving pre- provision profitability and efficiency ratio</li>
</ul>


Profitability ratio trends were mixed in 3Q24, with most of the South Korean banks seeing improved post-provision returns to September-end, helped by generally lower cost of risk trends
Hana Financial remains our big-cap pick for its attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia; there is potential for its inclusion in a planned Value-Up index rebalancing scheduled for December
Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving pre- provision profitability and efficiency ratio


South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Remain Our Key Positive Picks

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hana Financial, along with KB Financial did not make the cut for the Korea Value-up index announced on the 24th September; Hana apparently fell short of the PBV ratio threshold</li>
<li>Despite being excluded from the Value-up Index, Hana remains our core South Korean bank pick for its attractive valuations, low PEG, solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials</li>
<li>We believe Hana stands out positively on fundamentals and return trends versus its peers, and there is also potential for its inclusion in a planned rebalancing scheduled in December</li>
</ul>


Hana Financial, along with KB Financial did not make the cut for the Korea Value-up index announced on the 24th September; Hana apparently fell short of the PBV ratio threshold
Despite being excluded from the Value-up Index, Hana remains our core South Korean bank pick for its attractive valuations, low PEG, solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
We believe Hana stands out positively on fundamentals and return trends versus its peers, and there is also potential for its inclusion in a planned rebalancing scheduled in December


Hana Financial (086790 KS); Error of Omission from the Value-Up Index?

<ul>
<li>Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities</li>
<li>Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials</li>
<li>Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns</li>
</ul>


Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities
Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns


South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

<ul>
<li>Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick five longs and two shorts as our conviction calls; we add country-based equity risk premia to our screening process</li>
<li>Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, CIMB Group from Malaysia, Bradesco from Brazil and CCB from China; four of these are value picks</li>
<li>Our sells are Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank from India, both richly valued larger cap banks that have benefited from past economic and political tailwinds with headwinds now emerging</li>
</ul>


Among bigger cap GEM banks, we pick five longs and two shorts as our conviction calls; we add country-based equity risk premia to our screening process
Our core buys are Bank Mandiri from Indonesia, Hana Financial from South Korea, CIMB Group from Malaysia, Bradesco from Brazil and CCB from China; four of these are value picks
Our sells are Kotak Mahindra Bank and ICICI Bank from India, both richly valued larger cap banks that have benefited from past economic and political tailwinds with headwinds now emerging


GEM Banks; Focus on Value Attributes and Returns Recovery Potential

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. </li>
<li>In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.</li>
<li>There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).</li>
</ul>


There are some major surprises (both inclusions and exclusions) in the Korea Value Up index. 
In particular, the telecom sector (SK Telecom and KT) and large cap holding companies (Samsung C&amp;T and LG Corp) are surprising exclusions in the index.
There are many surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index. We provide 30 companies are surprising inclusions in the Korea Value Up Index (19 KOSDAQ and 11 KOSPI listed).


Korea Value Up Index - Surprising Inclusions and Exclusions

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Remain Our Key Positive Picks

Among South Korean banks, Hana and Woori stand out; attractively valued Hana has potential for inclusion in a planned Value-Up index rebalancing,...

Victor Galliano