Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-financial-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16104:1" rel="noopener">Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-fire-marine-insurance-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20468:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000060 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 27 January.</li>
<li>We estimate passive <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> trackers will need to buy 3.494m shares (KRW 36.34bn; 4.04 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jb-financial-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16104:1" rel="noopener">Jb Financial Group (175330 KS)</a> at the close on 27 January.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> in April, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> following its merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11776:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS)</a>. </li>
</ul>



Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) will replace Meritz Fire &amp; Marine Insurance (000060 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 27 January.
We estimate passive KOSPI2 INDEX trackers will need to buy 3.494m shares (KRW 36.34bn; 4.04 days of ADV) of Jb Financial Group (175330 KS) at the close on 27 January.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) could be added to the KOSPI2 INDEX in April, replacing Meritz Securities (008560 KS) following its merger with Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS). 


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&amp;A session with both the investors community and the media today.</li>
<li>Align Partners' corporate activism of the Korean banks has been one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market this year.</li>
<li>The Korean banks are likely to outperform the market in 1H23. Nonetheless, if there are further signs of housing price declines in Korea, this outperformance may not continue in 2H23. </li>
</ul>


Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&amp;A session with both the investors community and the media today.
Align Partners' corporate activism of the Korean banks has been one of the biggest stories in the Korean stock market this year.
The Korean banks are likely to outperform the market in 1H23. Nonetheless, if there are further signs of housing price declines in Korea, this outperformance may not continue in 2H23. 


Align Partners' Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session

<ul>
<li>On 2 January, Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) started to go activist on seven leading Korean banking group companies.</li>
<li>According to APCM, the major Korean banking groups could pay out at least half of their net income to their shareholders, which would be more than double the current levels.</li>
<li>Korean banks are trading at deep discount to global peers, now trading at PBR of 0.2~0.4x whereas global peers trade at 1.3x. </li>
</ul>


On 2 January, Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) started to go activist on seven leading Korean banking group companies.
According to APCM, the major Korean banking groups could pay out at least half of their net income to their shareholders, which would be more than double the current levels.
Korean banks are trading at deep discount to global peers, now trading at PBR of 0.2~0.4x whereas global peers trade at 1.3x. 


Align Partners Goes Activist on Seven Banking Group Companies in Korea

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The all-inclusive CGT will be implemented in 2025. The current partial capital gains tax will be maintained until 2024. And the STT will drop from 0.23% to 0.15% in 2024.</li>
<li>The critical cause of an arb opportunity on ex-date price correction+dividend yield has been the yearend selling flow on T-1 ex-date for the purpose of tax avoidance by majority shareholders.</li>
<li>So, from this year to 2024, we should keep an eye on this arbitrage opportunity, which will continue to arise.</li>
</ul>


The all-inclusive CGT will be implemented in 2025. The current partial capital gains tax will be maintained until 2024. And the STT will drop from 0.23% to 0.15% in 2024.
The critical cause of an arb opportunity on ex-date price correction+dividend yield has been the yearend selling flow on T-1 ex-date for the purpose of tax avoidance by majority shareholders.
So, from this year to 2024, we should keep an eye on this arbitrage opportunity, which will continue to arise.


Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Six of the seven South Korean banks screen favourably on valuation versus returns metrics to September 2022; we add Hana Financial, to our buy rating on KB Financial</li>
<li>Hana has undemanding valuations, and improving pre-provision and post-provision returns,  it also has sound core capital ratio of close to 13%</li>
<li>We remain neutral on digital bank KakaoBank where we are deterred by high cost of risk metrics relative to its peers; we continue to seek positive catalysts on this name</li>
</ul>


Six of the seven South Korean banks screen favourably on valuation versus returns metrics to September 2022; we add Hana Financial, to our buy rating on KB Financial
Hana has undemanding valuations, and improving pre-provision and post-provision returns,  it also has sound core capital ratio of close to 13%
We remain neutral on digital bank KakaoBank where we are deterred by high cost of risk metrics relative to its peers; we continue to seek positive catalysts on this name


South Korean Banks Screener; Hana Financial in the Positive Spotlight

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: JB Financial (175330 KS) To Replace Meritz F&M (000060 KS)

JB Financial will replace Meritz F&M Insurance in the KOSPI200 at the close on 27 Jan. JB is +32% in the last 13 trading days & trades at a higher...

Brian Freitas

Align Partners' Corporate Activism on Korean Banks: A Media Presentation and Q&A Session

Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) held a media presentation and a Q&A session with both the investors community and the media today.

Douglas Kim

Align Partners Goes Activist on Seven Banking Group Companies in Korea

On 2 January, Align Partners Capital Management (APCM) started to go activist on seven leading Korean banking group companies.

Douglas Kim

Revised CGT/SST in Korea: Intense Selling Flow on T-1 Ex-Date Will Be Intact Until 2024

This post details the stock CGT/SST revisions agreed upon by Korea's ruling and opposing parties yesterday and discusses yearend arb trades.

Sanghyun Park

South Korean Banks Screener; Hana Financial in the Positive Spotlight

Among South Korean banks, we add Hana Financial to our buy rating on KB Financial; Hana has cheap valuations, and improving pre-provision and post...

Victor Galliano

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52-week Range

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