Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

<p>While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.</p>

While there are always exceptions at the individual stock level, MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs of positive change and we recommend adding exposure to emerging markets and Japan.

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>We maintain the BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt43.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 57x PE’22E.</strong></p><div>• GULF reported 2Q21 net profit of Bt1.4bn  (-25% YoY, -14% QoQ), excluding FX and other extraordinary items the recurring net profit stood same at Bt1.4bn, improving +42% YoY and declining 41% QoQ.</div><div></div><div>• The QoQ decline was due to absence of dividend income from INTUCH and  declined revenue share from BKR2 offshore wind power plant. While the full quarter revenue recognition of GSRC (COD in 1Q21) and higher IU electricity sales from GMP resulted the YoY growth.</div><div></div><div>• GULF increased its stake in INTUCH to 42.5%, making it the largest share holder. The company will book dividend income from INTUCH in 3Q, and either consolidate or record profit under equity method 4Q21 onwards.</div><div></div><div>• Expect 3Q21 recurring net profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of a huge dividend income of around B1.6bn from INTUCH.</div>

We maintain the BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt43.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 57x PE’22E.• GULF reported 2Q21 net profit of Bt1.4bn  (-25% YoY, -14% QoQ), excluding FX and other extraordinary items the recurring net profit stood same at Bt1.4bn, improving +42% YoY and declining 41% QoQ.• The QoQ decline was due to absence of dividend income from INTUCH and  declined revenue share from BKR2 offshore wind power plant. While the full quarter revenue recognition of GSRC (COD in 1Q21) and higher IU electricity sales from GMP resulted the YoY growth.• GULF increased its stake in INTUCH to 42.5%, making it the largest share holder. The company will book dividend income from INTUCH in 3Q, and either consolidate or record profit under equity method 4Q21 onwards.• Expect 3Q21 recurring net profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of a huge dividend income of around B1.6bn from INTUCH.

GULF: Huge Dividend Gain from INTUCH in 3Q21

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

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<p>In StubWorld this week ...</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/indofood-sukses-makmur-tbk-p" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1053:1" rel="noopener"></a>Beleaguered <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)</a>'s shares bounced after the company <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2021/0810/2021081001009.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said</a> it is in talks to sell stakes in two of its units. But optimism over improved capital management appears naive. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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In StubWorld this week ...




Beleaguered Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333 HK)'s shares bounced after the company said it is in talks to sell stakes in two of its units. But optimism over improved capital management appears naive. 




Preceding my comments on Evergrande are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


<div>
<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Not surprisingly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153870&amp;sequence=2021078813" target="_blank" rel="noopener">says</a> the Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a> is "<em>appropriate</em>". Equally unsurprising, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>'s IFA <a href="https://www.set.or.th/set/pdfnews.do?newsId=16266518153760&amp;sequence=2021078811" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has</a> the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.</p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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<p>As always, more below the fold.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Not surprisingly, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s IFA says the Offer from Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB) is "appropriate". Equally unsurprising, Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)'s IFA has the opinion that the shareholders should reject the Tender Offer from Gulf.



Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


As always, more below the fold.


StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a> trading at terms to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)</a>'s Offer...</p>
<p><em><strong>...What's the play here?</strong></em></p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
</div>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...




With Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB) trading at terms to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB)'s Offer...
...What's the play here?




Preceding my comments on Intouch are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.


These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.


StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

Buying Opportunities Within Emerging Markets and Japan; US Dollar Failing At 93.50

MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM-US) and Japan (TOPIX, TOPIX Small) have been some of the weaker areas to invest throughout 2021. We now see early signs...

Vermilion Research

GULF: Huge Dividend Gain from INTUCH in 3Q21

We maintain the BUY recommendation based on a target price of Bt43.0 derived using SOTP methodology, implying 57x PE’22E.

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

StubWorld: What To Do With Evergrande?

Evergrande Auto is not worth what its market cap suggests to an independent third party; and Property Services may or may not be worth what people...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: IFAs Say "Yea" For Intouch, "Nay" For AIS

I would still avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it, or short tender the stock. Best to wait until the close of the Offer to get a clearer...

David Blennerhassett

StubWorld: Gulf's Curious Offer For Intouch Now Open

I would avoid Intouch here, but I would not short it. I think we have to wait until the close of the Offer to get a better idea of what Gulf's next...

David Blennerhassett

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