Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.</li>
<li>An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.</li>
<li>Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.</li>
</ul>


Hang Seng announced the results of the March rebalance post market close Friday. Two adds for the HSI, one set of changes for HSCEI, three sets for HSTECH.
An ad hoc rebalance was announced for the KOSDAQ150 following Osstem being designated an 'Administrative Issue'. In IPO world, we have LIC in India and SBI Sumishin NetBank coming up.
Friday was the review cutoff date for the March rebalance of the ASX200 Index. The ATO has provided Aventus with the tax ruling and that creates a timing issue.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

<ul>
<li>The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stock-exchange-of-thailand-set-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31493:1" rel="noopener">Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX)</a> starts in a couple of weeks.</li>
<li>Using the last close, we see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jmt-network-services-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8581:1" rel="noopener">JMT Network Services (JMT)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bangkok-life-assurance-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16237:1" rel="noopener">Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA)</a> as potential inclusions, replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kce-electronics-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1892:1" rel="noopener">KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ratch-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15338:1" rel="noopener">Ratch Group PCL</a> is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.</li>
</ul>


The market cap review period for the June rebalance of the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) starts in a couple of weeks.
Using the last close, we see JMT Network Services (JMT) and Bangkok Life Assurance (BLA) as potential inclusions, replacing Ratch Group PCL (RATCH TB) and KCE Electronics PCL (KCE TB).

Ratch Group PCL is the lowest ranked index constituent and needs to move 15% higher to avoid deletion. Passive trackers will need to sell nearly 4 days of ADV.


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Petroleo Brasileiro  / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.</li>
<li>We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.</li>
</ul>


Our neutral outlook has come down to price supports holding on the broad global indexes, including $54 on MSCI ACWIex-US (ACWX-US), $76.50 on EAFE (EFA-US), and $99 on ACWI (ACWI-US).
These support levels are now breaking which tilts our stance to bearish at the index level as long as the aforementioned indexes remain below their previous support levels.
We still see the EURO STOXX 50 and TOPIX as holding above support, while the Hang Seng and Bovespa appear to be bottoming, none of which paint a bearish picture.


Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>GULF decided to treat INTUCH in its financial statement using the equity method. We see the decision to be appropriate given GULF’s net profit will be higher under this method, compared to consolidation.</strong></p><div>• Potential saving of Bt2,0bn per year if using equity method, thanks to no amortization expenses of ADVANC’s intangible assets.</div><div></div><div>• The company will book dividend income from INTUCH in 3Q, and record profit under equity method 4Q21 onwards.</div><div></div><div>• Expect 3Q21 net profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of a huge dividend income of around B1.6bn from INTUCH (42.25% stake).</div><div></div><div><strong>We revise up the target price by 7% to Bt46.0, incorporating the Bt3.0/sh contribution from increase of stake in INTUCH ( from 19% to 42.25%). Meanwhile, we downgrade the recommendation to HOLD due to limited upside from current share price. Our valuation is derived using SOTP methodology and implies 61x PE’22E.</strong></div>

GULF decided to treat INTUCH in its financial statement using the equity method. We see the decision to be appropriate given GULF’s net profit will be higher under this method, compared to consolidation.• Potential saving of Bt2,0bn per year if using equity method, thanks to no amortization expenses of ADVANC’s intangible assets.• The company will book dividend income from INTUCH in 3Q, and record profit under equity method 4Q21 onwards.• Expect 3Q21 net profit to improve both YoY and QoQ on the back of a huge dividend income of around B1.6bn from INTUCH (42.25% stake).We revise up the target price by 7% to Bt46.0, incorporating the Bt3.0/sh contribution from increase of stake in INTUCH ( from 19% to 42.25%). Meanwhile, we downgrade the recommendation to HOLD due to limited upside from current share price. Our valuation is derived using SOTP methodology and implies 61x PE’22E.

GULF: INTUCH to Be Treated Under Equity Method 4Q21 Onwards

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) / Technical Analysis

<p>Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.</p>

Emerging market equities have been one of the worst areas to invest in 2021, but we see early signs of positive change. With the US dollar failing to break above resistance at $93.50 and the MSCI EM ETF (EEM-US) displaying a false breakdown at $52, we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure to emerging market equities. To be clear, we are not getting overly bullish on EM; we have favored developed int’l (EAFE) over EM since May, and we are now shifting back to a neutral stance between the two. We see reason to believe the tide is shifting in EM’s favor. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within EM.

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH, HSCI, S&P/ASX, SET50, LIC, SBI Sumishin, Crown

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview (June): Two Changes, Maybe Three

JMT and BLA could replace RATCH and KCE in the SET50 index at the June rebalance. There could be an adhoc change if the DTAC/TRUE merger is...

Brian Freitas

Broad Indexes Violate Support But Bright Spots Remain; Buying Energy, Staples, and Utilities

We are highlighting Energy again because it is easily our favorite Sector. Additionally, defensive Sectors including Staples and Utilities display...

Vermilion Research

GULF: INTUCH to Be Treated Under Equity Method 4Q21 Onwards

GULF decided to treat INTUCH in its financial statement using the equity method. We see the decision to be appropriate given GULF’s net profit will...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Shifting Exposure To Emerging Markets; Buying TSMC/Taiwan Semi, ICICI Bank, Many Others

We see early signs of positive change within EM, and we present a strong case as to why we believe now is an opportune time to add exposure.

Vermilion Research

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