IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29217:1" rel="noopener">Xpeng (XPEV US)</a> is a leading BEV (battery electric passenger vehicle) company in China. XPeng current vehicle line-up consists of an SUV (the G3 which commenced deliveries in December 2018) and a four-door sports sedan (the P7 which commenced deliveries in May 2020). XPeng had a market share of 2.0% in the China NEV (new energy passenger vehicles) market and 4.7% in the mid- to high-end segment of the China NEV market in 2020, according to IHS Markit. XPeng has launched an HKEx secondary listing by offering 85 million new Class A ordinary shares. At the maximum offer price of HK$180.00 per share, the gross proceeds will be $2.0 billion. The secondary listing comes on the back of a listing on the NYSE in August 2020 ($1.4 billion net raise at $15.00 per ADS) as well as a follow-on offering in December 2020 ($2.5 billion gross raise at $45.00 per ADS).<div class="content-highlight">Despite rising competition, XPeng is delivering on its IPO promise by growing market share, enhancing the model line up and delivering a positive gross margin trajectory. XPeng is also further solidifying its brand recognition and leadership of full-stack in-house developed autonomous driving solutions. On balance, for investors seeking exposure to the China NEV sector, XPeng’s fundamentals and valuation are attractive, in our view. </div>

Xpeng (XPEV US) is a leading BEV (battery electric passenger vehicle) company in China. XPeng current vehicle line-up consists of an SUV (the G3 which commenced deliveries in December 2018) and a four-door sports sedan (the P7 which commenced deliveries in May 2020). XPeng had a market share of 2.0% in the China NEV (new energy passenger vehicles) market and 4.7% in the mid- to high-end segment of the China NEV market in 2020, according to IHS Markit. XPeng has launched an HKEx secondary listing by offering 85 million new Class A ordinary shares. At the maximum offer price of HK$180.00 per share, the gross proceeds will be $2.0 billion. The secondary listing comes on the back of a listing on the NYSE in August 2020 ($1.4 billion net raise at $15.00 per ADS) as well as a follow-on offering in December 2020 ($2.5 billion gross raise at $45.00 per ADS).Despite rising competition, XPeng is delivering on its IPO promise by growing market share, enhancing the model line up and delivering a positive gross margin trajectory. XPeng is also further solidifying its brand recognition and leadership of full-stack in-house developed autonomous driving solutions. On balance, for investors seeking exposure to the China NEV sector, XPeng’s fundamentals and valuation are attractive, in our view. 

Xpeng Secondary Listing: The Battle to Rule the Teslaverse

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

We view the FY21 (Year end Mar) result of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-dongxiang-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1068:1" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK)</a> positively, despite a dividend payout ratio which is lower than expected. As we wrote in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-dongxiang-3818-hk-what-can-we-expect-from-the-final-result" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53174" rel="noopener">China Dongxiang (3818 HK): What Can We Expect from the Final Result?</a>, its sportswear business in China has recorded good turnaround, with gross profit soared 46.3% YoY and 27.9% HoH. Meanwhile, its investment business also registered an income of Rmb2.1bn for full-year, or Rmb759.7m for 2H21, up 88.7% YoY.Going forward, we expect CNDX's strategy to bring about further improvement in its sportswear business in China. It has also disclosed more names of listed equity that it hold both directly and indirectly and they are all of good quality, in our view. The stock is trading on 47% discount to book value which made up of 14% of net cash, 73% of investment portfolio and 13% of other net assets. Frankly, we think such valuation is too depressed and believe there is more upside room even after a 52% rally in share price YTD.

We view the FY21 (Year end Mar) result of China Dongxiang Group Co (3818 HK) positively, despite a dividend payout ratio which is lower than expected. As we wrote in China Dongxiang (3818 HK): What Can We Expect from the Final Result?, its sportswear business in China has recorded good turnaround, with gross profit soared 46.3% YoY and 27.9% HoH. Meanwhile, its investment business also registered an income of Rmb2.1bn for full-year, or Rmb759.7m for 2H21, up 88.7% YoY.Going forward, we expect CNDX's strategy to bring about further improvement in its sportswear business in China. It has also disclosed more names of listed equity that it hold both directly and indirectly and they are all of good quality, in our view. The stock is trading on 47% discount to book value which made up of 14% of net cash, 73% of investment portfolio and 13% of other net assets. Frankly, we think such valuation is too depressed and believe there is more upside room even after a 52% rally in share price YTD.

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Lower-Than-Expected Dividends but Still A Marvelous FY21

China Specialist, Auto and Industrial Specialist

Victoria Li

From latest post on MIIT, we noticed Xpeng has applied for permits to sell P5 and N5 models for sale in the market. P5 has been well anticipated by the market, while N5 has not been mentioned in public before. Based on the posted information, this N5 looks like a reduced autonomous driving function version of P5. It might have lower price and target to potential customers who care less about autonomous driving functions than exterior interior design and price.We estimate the MSRPs and tech specifications of Xpeng P5 and N5 would be announced for sales in July. By targeting to customers with different preferences, monthly sales of P5 and N5 might reach at least 5,000 units, in our view.Reiterate BUY.

From latest post on MIIT, we noticed Xpeng has applied for permits to sell P5 and N5 models for sale in the market. P5 has been well anticipated by the market, while N5 has not been mentioned in public before. Based on the posted information, this N5 looks like a reduced autonomous driving function version of P5. It might have lower price and target to potential customers who care less about autonomous driving functions than exterior interior design and price.We estimate the MSRPs and tech specifications of Xpeng P5 and N5 would be announced for sales in July. By targeting to customers with different preferences, monthly sales of P5 and N5 might reach at least 5,000 units, in our view.Reiterate BUY.

Xpeng: P5 Gets Ready for Sale, Potential New Versions Widen Target Market

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Sona Blw Precision Forgings Lt / Equity Capital Markets

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sona-comstar-pre-ipo-inconsistent-growth-patchy-disclosures" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. </a>In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sona Comstar (Sona) aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.Sona is an automotive technology company, designing, manufacturing and supplying highly engineered, mission critical automotive systems and components to automotive OEMs across US, Europe, India and China, for both electrified and non-electrified powertrain segments.Sona delivered a steady performance in 2019 with revenue up 16.6% and PAT up 24.1%. However, its revenue fell by 14.5% in FY20, although it still managed to grow its PAT by 4%. It registered a strong bounce bank in FY21 with 28.4% revenue growth but PAT was flat.While the company enjoys a long customer relationship, its largest customers haven’t consistently grown their contribution to revenue over the past few years.We have covered the deal background in our earlier note, Sona Comstar Pre-IPO - Inconsistent growth, patchy disclosures. In this note, we will talk about the recent updates and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

In last week's Compass we highlighted what we view as compelling signals that risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. The trend of improving risk appetites has only continued over the past week and we are moving toward an outright bullish outlook.

In last week's Compass we highlighted what we view as compelling signals that risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. The trend of improving risk appetites has only continued over the past week and we are moving toward an outright bullish outlook.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Re-Emerging As Leadership

China

XPeng Inc. designs, produces, and distributes electric vehicles. The Company designs, develops, manufactures and markets smart smart electric vehicles, as well as finance, parts, and maintenance services. XPeng serves customers in China.

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XPeng (XPEV US)

Xpeng Secondary Listing: The Battle to Rule the Teslaverse

XPeng has launched an HKEx secondary listing to raise proceeds of $2 billion. For investors seeking exposure to the China NEV sector, XPeng’s...

Arun George

China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Lower-Than-Expected Dividends but Still A Marvelous FY21

China Dongxiang has delivered impressive FY21 result with good recovery in sportswear and surge in investment income. At 47% discount to book...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Xpeng: P5 Gets Ready for Sale, Potential New Versions Widen Target Market

From latest post on MIIT, we noticed Xpeng has applied for permits to sell P5 and N5 models for sale in the market. P5 has been well anticipated by...

Victoria Li

Sona Comstar - Has Its Positives, but We Remain Unconvinced

Sona Comstar aims to raise around US$761m in its Indian IPO. The company is backed by Blackstone, which held a 66.2% stake prior to listing.

Sumeet Singh

U.S. Equity Strategy: Small-Caps Re-Emerging As Leadership

We continue to see compelling signals that suggest risk appetites are improving, which is bullish for the broad market. As a result, we are moving...

Vermilion Research

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