Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.</li>
<li>Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.</li>
<li>Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.</li>
</ul>


Opposition's probable win in the election sparks concerns about Value-up initiative's momentum. However, market sentiment doesn't universally echo these worries.
Value-Up stocks' recent corrections likely stem from Q4 dividend arbitrage liquidation, rather than election result concerns.
Post-Election, even if the opposition wins, the left-leaning Value-up program might continue, limiting the opposition's influence, as seen in recent National Pension Service flows.


Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.</li>
<li>In addition, we look back at the past five years and compare how the major Korean trading companies have performed relative to their Japanese counterparts. </li>
<li>In Korea, we believe that the following 5 major Korean trading companies (POSCO International, Hanwha Corp, LX International, Samsung Corp, and Hyundai Corp) could continue to outperform the market.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.
In addition, we look back at the past five years and compare how the major Korean trading companies have performed relative to their Japanese counterparts. 
In Korea, we believe that the following 5 major Korean trading companies (POSCO International, Hanwha Corp, LX International, Samsung Corp, and Hyundai Corp) could continue to outperform the market.


Warren Buffett's Increased Stakes in Japanese Trading Houses - Impact on Korean Trading Companies

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.</li>
<li>With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.</li>
<li>With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.


Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.</li>
<li>Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.


Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

<ul>
<li>During the public hearing, Lee Jae-myung asked Simpac's CFO about their 0.3x PBR, then remarked, "That’s prime territory for a hostile M&amp;A."</li>
<li>With PBRs under 0.3x, these companies may roll out shareholder returns to manage political pressure—definitely worth tracking from a value-up trading perspective.</li>
<li>Hanwha is interesting due to its room for shareholder returns and potential merger with Hanwha Energy. With the new Commercial Act, a public tender offer is likely. Worth watching closely.</li>
</ul>


During the public hearing, Lee Jae-myung asked Simpac's CFO about their 0.3x PBR, then remarked, "That’s prime territory for a hostile M&amp;A."
With PBRs under 0.3x, these companies may roll out shareholder returns to manage political pressure—definitely worth tracking from a value-up trading perspective.
Hanwha is interesting due to its room for shareholder returns and potential merger with Hanwha Energy. With the new Commercial Act, a public tender offer is likely. Worth watching closely.


Korea’s Dem Leader: PBR Under 0.3x Should Be Hostile M&A Targets – Names That Could Feel the Heat

South Korea

GS Holdings is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including GS Caltex Oil, GS Power, GS Home Shopping, GS Retail, and GS Sports.

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GS Holdings (078930 KS)

Observations on Post-Election Flows of Value-Up Stocks, Based on Recent Local Institutional Trades

This post outlines my observations on the post-election flows of Value-up beneficiary stocks, derived from recent local institutional trades.

Sanghyun Park

Warren Buffett's Increased Stakes in Japanese Trading Houses - Impact on Korean Trading Companies

In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.

Douglas Kim

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

There could be 11-12 index deletions in Korea later this month. Passive trackers will need to trade between US$42m-US$120m (4.2x-31x ADV) of the...

Brian Freitas

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

The list of potential deletions for Korea next month continues to increase as markets remain weak. The stocks have, on average, traded flat over...

Brian Freitas

Korea’s Dem Leader: PBR Under 0.3x Should Be Hostile M&A Targets – Names That Could Feel the Heat

The Democratic Party leader’s bold move: “A PBR under 0.3x is prime for a hostile M&A target.” Here are the stocks that could feel the heat.

Sanghyun Park

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