Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.</li>
<li>What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.</li>
<li>It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&amp;T, with June’s election key.</li>
</ul>


The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&amp;T, with June’s election key.


Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) (common) and LG Chem (051915 KS) (preferred). </li>
<li>The price ratio (LG Chem common/preferred) is now at 2.16x, which is more than 2 STD (standard deviations). Our trading strategy involves revert to the mean. </li>
<li>One of the key reasons why LG Chem (preferred)'s share price has fared much worse YTD than LG Chem (common) is due to much larger selling by the foreign investors. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Chem Ltd (051910 KS) (common) and LG Chem (051915 KS) (preferred). 
The price ratio (LG Chem common/preferred) is now at 2.16x, which is more than 2 STD (standard deviations). Our trading strategy involves revert to the mean. 
One of the key reasons why LG Chem (preferred)'s share price has fared much worse YTD than LG Chem (common) is due to much larger selling by the foreign investors. 


A Pair Trade Between LG Chem (Common) And LG Chem (Preferred)

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.</li>
<li>In addition, we look back at the past five years and compare how the major Korean trading companies have performed relative to their Japanese counterparts. </li>
<li>In Korea, we believe that the following 5 major Korean trading companies (POSCO International, Hanwha Corp, LX International, Samsung Corp, and Hyundai Corp) could continue to outperform the market.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.
In addition, we look back at the past five years and compare how the major Korean trading companies have performed relative to their Japanese counterparts. 
In Korea, we believe that the following 5 major Korean trading companies (POSCO International, Hanwha Corp, LX International, Samsung Corp, and Hyundai Corp) could continue to outperform the market.


Warren Buffett's Increased Stakes in Japanese Trading Houses - Impact on Korean Trading Companies

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.</li>
<li>With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.</li>
<li>With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


There are 11 stocks (maybe 12) in Korea that could be deleted from a global index in February and that will result in large selling from passive trackers.
With announcement in a week and implementation in just over 3 weeks, there is positioning in a lot of the names.
With short selling still banned, positioning will not be as high as the passive selling and the stocks could still drop over the next few weeks.


Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

<ul>
<li>There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.</li>
<li>There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.</li>
<li>Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.


Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

South Korea

GS Holdings is a holding company, which operates subsidiaries including GS Caltex Oil, GS Power, GS Home Shopping, GS Retail, and GS Sports.

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GS Holdings (078930 KS)

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

Korea's Corporate Act amendment just took an unexpected turn. We should definitely keep an eye on momentum plays in local holding companies,...

Sanghyun Park

A Pair Trade Between LG Chem (Common) And LG Chem (Preferred)

In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between LG Chem (051910 KS) (common) and LG Chem (051915 KS) (preferred). We recommend going long on LG...

Douglas Kim

Warren Buffett's Increased Stakes in Japanese Trading Houses - Impact on Korean Trading Companies

In this insight, we discuss how Buffett's increased stakes in Japanese trading companies could positively impact Korean trading companies.

Douglas Kim

Korea: 11 Potential Index Deletions in February

There could be 11-12 index deletions in Korea later this month. Passive trackers will need to trade between US$42m-US$120m (4.2x-31x ADV) of the...

Brian Freitas

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

The list of potential deletions for Korea next month continues to increase as markets remain weak. The stocks have, on average, traded flat over...

Brian Freitas

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