Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Eva Precision Industrial Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>After rallying a fair bit at the beginning of 2023, we have seen sharp pullbacks in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-precision-industrial-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17511:1" rel="noopener">Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-meidong-auto-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10795:1" rel="noopener">China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK)</a> share prices.</li>
<li>We believe the price cuts highlighted by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/victoria-li-37be10a4-61ab-4f2c-8657-201b7837050d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:780" rel="noopener">Victoria Li</a> in her insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-auto-ice-price-war-triggered-by-dongfeng-jv-players-under-pressure" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97517" rel="noopener">China Auto: ICE Price War Triggered by Dongfeng, JV Players Under Pressure</a> are a significant cause. </li>
<li>While we like both stocks and they are cheap, we feel both companies will face short to medium-term pain in their businesses and share prices as the saga unfolds.</li>
</ul>


After rallying a fair bit at the beginning of 2023, we have seen sharp pullbacks in Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) and China MeiDong Auto (1268 HK) share prices.
We believe the price cuts highlighted by Victoria Li in her insight China Auto: ICE Price War Triggered by Dongfeng, JV Players Under Pressure are a significant cause. 
While we like both stocks and they are cheap, we feel both companies will face short to medium-term pain in their businesses and share prices as the saga unfolds.


Thoughts On The Recent Pullbacks in Meidong and EVA

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-precision-industrial-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17511:1" rel="noopener">Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK)</a> is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3% dividend yield (30% payout ratio).</li>
<li>H1 2022 was groundbreaking for the company as it commenced strategic cooperation with  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> on products and bagged orders from Huwaei and Tesla, with more coming in H2.</li>
<li>There is additional room for buybacks as the stock price is &lt; 2HKD and the company only completed 3-4% of its 200 mn HKD buyback.</li>
</ul>



Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3% dividend yield (30% payout ratio).
H1 2022 was groundbreaking for the company as it commenced strategic cooperation with  BYD (1211 HK) on products and bagged orders from Huwaei and Tesla, with more coming in H2.
There is additional room for buybacks as the stock price is &lt; 2HKD and the company only completed 3-4% of its 200 mn HKD buyback.


EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eva-precision-industrial-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17511:1" rel="noopener">Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK)</a> is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and moulds), trading at 8.1x PE FY22 with an inflection point in earnings growth.</li>
<li>As a supplier to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US),</a> <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, and Lucid, it is a play on the expansion of the EV space.</li>
<li>Legacy business of office equipment will also experience growth due to the exit of foreign businesses like Fuji and Samsung enabling the company to have 25% CAGR revenue growth.</li>
</ul>



Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and moulds), trading at 8.1x PE FY22 with an inflection point in earnings growth.
As a supplier to Tesla Motors (TSLA US), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), and Lucid, it is a play on the expansion of the EV space.
Legacy business of office equipment will also experience growth due to the exit of foreign businesses like Fuji and Samsung enabling the company to have 25% CAGR revenue growth.


EVA Precision 838 HK: Play on EV Market Growth

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The EV market offers bright long term prospects supported by technological progress and government incentives, particularly in China.</li>
<li>In the short term, surging raw material costs and supply bottlenecks are significant risks and could take longer to resolve than many suspect.</li>
<li>We believe the high-end performance segment and low-end mini/city vehicle segments are most suitable for rapid EV penetration.</li>
</ul>


The EV market offers bright long term prospects supported by technological progress and government incentives, particularly in China.
In the short term, surging raw material costs and supply bottlenecks are significant risks and could take longer to resolve than many suspect.
We believe the high-end performance segment and low-end mini/city vehicle segments are most suitable for rapid EV penetration.


Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-securities-co-4f5d644c-0051-426f-9706-eaa74b0ba280" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22738:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK)</a> benefits from increased market turnover.   <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc-0533692c-6dae-4014-baa1-ed0b050638f2" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29259:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings (9987 HK)</a> beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong markets continue to outperform this year with the HSCEI up 30% year to date.  Market breadth continues to be healthy with 80% of stocks over &gt; 200 DMA.

XPeng (9868 HK) announced its new hybrid technology which gives vehicles a range of more than 870 miles (1400 Kms).  The company has delivered more than 120k vehicles YTD.

China Merchants Securities Co Ltd (H) (6099 HK) benefits from increased market turnover.   Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) beat consensus for 3Q24 earnings and will continue its buyback program.


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

Thoughts On The Recent Pullbacks in Meidong and EVA

Price cuts in the China auto sector are forcing downgrades and share prices to retrace. We understand there will be short/medium-term pain but EVA...

Sameer Taneja

EVA Precision: Poor Mans Tesla/ EV Play/ Onwards and Upwards from H1 2022

Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a beneficiary of EV penetration globally and in China, trading at 9.4x /5.6x FY22/23e and 3.2%/5.3%...

Sameer Taneja

EVA Precision 838 HK: Play on EV Market Growth

Eva Precision Industrial Holdings (838 HK) is a supplier of office and automotive equipment (seat/battery frames and molds), trading at 8.1x PE...

Sameer Taneja

China’s Evolving EV Industry

With attractive long term prospects but a short term clouded by raw material prices investors should focus on a barbell approach to EVs examining...

Mio Kato

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 7)

Hong Kong markets are among the top performers this year. Short selling has declined as Southbound buying increases. Xpeng introduced a new hybrid...

David Mudd

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