Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore. </li>
<li>Last week was slightly disappointing but the Recommendations Outperformed the universe.</li>
<li>New stimulus measures are partly supply side, and a little bit demand side, but they're not big enough yet to move the needle. Mainland ETF buying smells like National Team.</li>
</ul>


The Brand-Spanking New (three weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore. 
Last week was slightly disappointing but the Recommendations Outperformed the universe.
New stimulus measures are partly supply side, and a little bit demand side, but they're not big enough yet to move the needle. Mainland ETF buying smells like National Team.


Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 1): China Life, Wide Premia Industrials, Banks Starting To Move

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 2Q23 net profit beat our prior forecast mainly due to its GPM of 17.4% (3.7 ppts higher than our estimates).</li><li>Although Great Wall focuses on differentiation in its NEV products to maintain margins, we think it should be more aggressive in NEV sales growth, and such profitability provides room for it.</li><li>We raise our FY23E net profit to RMB 3.2bn amid resilient GPM in 1H23. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 2Q23 net profit beat our prior forecast mainly due to its GPM of 17.4% (3.7 ppts higher than our estimates).Although Great Wall focuses on differentiation in its NEV products to maintain margins, we think it should be more aggressive in NEV sales growth, and such profitability provides room for it.We raise our FY23E net profit to RMB 3.2bn amid resilient GPM in 1H23. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – Resilient Margins Pave Way for EV Transition

<ul>
<li>This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.</li>
<li>Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. </li>
<li>6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.</li>
</ul>


This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.
Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. 
6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.


Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>EV Adoption in ASEAN is low compared to developed markets, however, development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal for the respective nations.</li>
<li>Governments in the region continues to introduce new policy measures and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


EV Adoption in ASEAN is low compared to developed markets, however, development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal for the respective nations.
Governments in the region continues to introduce new policy measures and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 1): China Life, Wide Premia Industrials, Banks Starting To Move

The new A-H Monitor provides extensive data, charts and tables. Last week's recommendations outperformed. Mainland ETF buying suggests National...

Travis Lundy

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – Resilient Margins Pave Way for EV Transition

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 2Q23 net profit beat our prior forecast mainly due to its GPM of 17.4% (3.7 ppts higher than our estimates).

CMB International

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity A/H Premium Weekly (Sep 1): China Life, Wide Premia Industrials, Banks Starting To Move

​The new A-H Monitor provides extensive data, charts and tables. Last week's recommendations outperformed. Mainland ETF buying suggests National...

Travis Lundy

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK) – Resilient Margins Pave Way for EV Transition

Maintain BUY. Great Wall’s 2Q23 net profit beat our prior forecast mainly due to its GPM of 17.4% (3.7 ppts higher than our estimates).

CMB International

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Progressing Towards a Robust EV Ecosystem

​Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

The new A-H Monitor provides extensive data, charts and tables. Last week's recommendations outperformed. Mainland ETF buying suggests National...

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal and the governments in the ASEAN region continue to introduce new policy measures and...