Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.</li>
<li>Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows net positive. NB 5 weeks in a row. AH premia rebounded slightly. AH Premia are still wide on average. Premia curves should still shift flatter.
Two Sessions seems like a good place to make positive public statements but recent speeches from the very top seem more oriented towards "The People Must Endure."


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative and NORTHBOUND flows a decent buy. AH premia on average fell, but liquid pairs saw AH premia rise. Chinese/HK shares shellacked.</li>
<li>Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows were net negative and NORTHBOUND flows a decent buy. AH premia on average fell, but liquid pairs saw AH premia rise. Chinese/HK shares shellacked.
Watch the SOE stock price KPI space. Wouldn't be short SOEs vs Privates on H/A basis. Low-hanging fruit with some SOEs having large cash balances.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Feb 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Wide Spreads Narrowing

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a fourth week. Hs rebound vs their As on the week - especially the liquid ones.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND saw HK$9.9bn of OUTflows on the week to 15 Dec, ALL of which was net sales of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tracker-fund-of-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29257:1" rel="noopener">Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent (700 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) <em>and</em> China Telecom (728 HK) seeing net buying as a percentage of volume. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND flows showing reversion tendencies continues for a fourth week. Hs rebound vs their As on the week - especially the liquid ones.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$9.9bn of OUTflows on the week to 15 Dec, ALL of which was net sales of Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800 HK) and Tencent (700 HK). 
High-Div SOEs again saw action. This time with both CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) and China Telecom (728 HK) seeing net buying as a percentage of volume. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 220+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -244bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net buys overall but Hs had a VERY BAD WEEK vs their A-Shares where pairs were concerned.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average by 220+bp. Liquid HK H/A Pairs saw H/As -244bp. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net buys overall but Hs had a VERY BAD WEEK vs their A-Shares where pairs were concerned.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Hs with H/A pairs <em>under</em>-perform their As on average. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net sells overall. Everybody sold tech.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (17 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Hs with H/A pairs under-perform their As on average. H/A Pair intracorrelation is up and A premia continue to trend better.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND were net sells overall. Everybody sold tech.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Nov 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Still Wide

The Quiddity AH Monitor shows A/H Pair discount/premia and their history, as well as the SB and NB flows and position/history, and a recommended...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 2 Feb 2024): Liquid AH Premia Near Multi-Yr Wides, Wide Spreads Narrowing

AH Premia remain near their wides on a trading-value-wtd basis. HK+China stocks shellacked last week. Limited National Team buying perhaps ahead of...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 15Dec23); CNOOC/Telecom/Mobile All Now To The Buy Side, Tencent NOT

SOUTHBOUND HK Connect Flows were lower than previous weeks in stock-picking but flows on ETFs were significant. NET flows were HK$9.9bn to the sell...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 1 Dec 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

Last week was a miserable week for H/A Pairs from the HK side. The A/H premia expanded, with four-week A/H outperformance at 4.8%, every sector but...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 24 Nov 23): H Down Vs A, SOUTHBOUND Selling Continues, Tech Still Sold

The Quiddity A/H Premium tracker (an H/A discount version is also available (and I like that one better)). Hs underperform As. Tech is worst....

Travis Lundy

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