Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.</li>
<li>Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.</li>
<li>The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.</li>
</ul>


Central banks globally are making rate decisions, with the Fed holding steady while Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, and the UK announce their decisions today.
Mexico and Canada are central banks to watch, with Fitch forecasting both economies to enter recession in 2025 due to their high US trade exposure.
The US's global reciprocal tariffs, set to be revealed on April 2, have significant implications for the global economy, with the potential to influence central bank policies worldwide.


Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Remember that we are replacing our “Something for your Espresso” with “The Week at a Glance” every Monday, featuring forward-looking expectations for the macro trading week ahead.</li>
<li>This week is another make-or-break week in US macro as growth surprises have turned negative lately.</li>
<li>This is not a major issue as long as the inflation surprises follow, as fears of weaker growth are alleviated by softer discount rates and lower inflation expectations in such a case.</li>
</ul>


Remember that we are replacing our “Something for your Espresso” with “The Week at a Glance” every Monday, featuring forward-looking expectations for the macro trading week ahead.
This week is another make-or-break week in US macro as growth surprises have turned negative lately.
This is not a major issue as long as the inflation surprises follow, as fears of weaker growth are alleviated by softer discount rates and lower inflation expectations in such a case.


The Week at a Glance: Stagflation or (temporary) Goldilocks?

<ul><li>Welcome to our Scandi inflation watch.</li><li>Based on public demand, we will release our SEK and NOK inflation views on a running basis as well.</li><li>December is typically a seasonally weak inflation month in Norway with declines in Clothing and Footwear prices, Food prices- and health prices.</li></ul>

Welcome to our Scandi inflation watch.Based on public demand, we will release our SEK and NOK inflation views on a running basis as well.December is typically a seasonally weak inflation month in Norway with declines in Clothing and Footwear prices, Food prices- and health prices.

Scandi-flation Watch: Finally a bit of respite?

Political Analyst | Steno Research, Steno Research

Anne Sandager

Political Analyst | Steno Research

<ul>
<li>Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.</li>
<li>The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.</li>
<li>The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.</li>
</ul>


Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards for EU member states after a 4-year pause during the pandemic.
The Stability and Growth Pact – the formal name of the fiscal rulebook – gives the EU the ability to impose monetary fines on member states with debt-to-GDP ratios above 60% and/or budget deficits exceeding -3%.
The pact was temporarily waived to allow states to undertake counter-cyclical investments and debt intake during the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis.


NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Norges Bank plans to increase NGB issuance to between 100 and 110 bn NOK in 2024, a large increase from the 80bn issued this year. </li><li>NGBs are mainly used to fund various government lending schemes, but the bulk of next year’s increase is not from these programs and a source of some uncertainty to us. </li><li>The Government Budget cites the end of the special income stream from the discontinuation of a government infrastructure fund (it added 100bn in 2023) as the reason behind the increased funding needs (“Gul bok” p44 and p88, in Norwegian only).</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Norges Bank plans to increase NGB issuance to between 100 and 110 bn NOK in 2024, a large increase from the 80bn issued this year. NGBs are mainly used to fund various government lending schemes, but the bulk of next year’s increase is not from these programs and a source of some uncertainty to us. The Government Budget cites the end of the special income stream from the discontinuation of a government infrastructure fund (it added 100bn in 2023) as the reason behind the increased funding needs (“Gul bok” p44 and p88, in Norwegian only).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Global X MSCI Norway ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the  USA. TheFund seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI Norway IMI25/50 Index.

Global X MSCI Norway ETF (NORW US)

Central Banks Hold Steady Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

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Gaudenz Schneider

The Week at a Glance: Stagflation or (temporary) Goldilocks?

Remember that we are replacing our “Something for your Espresso” with “The Week at a Glance” every Monday, featuring forward-looking expectations...

Steno Research

Scandi-flation Watch: Finally a bit of respite?

Welcome to our Scandi inflation watch. Based on public demand, we will release our SEK and NOK inflation views on a running basis as...

Steno Research

NEW EU FISCAL RULES – Victory for the Expansionists or the Prudentials?

Amidst the prospect of a soft landing and lower interest rates, the European Council unanimously voted in favor of reinstating fiscal safeguards...

Steno Research

NGB: Borrowing Programme 2024

Norges Bank plans a large increase in bond issuance next year and could at the same time restart their swap program. We comment on last week's...

Nordea