IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Growatt Technology / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/growatt-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36103:1" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology (1833969D CH)</a>, a leading PV inverters manufacturer, will seek a listing hearing for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO in October, according to press reports.</li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/growatt-technology-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:80963" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on rising customer concentration risk, high dependence on Brazil for growth, limited pricing power and a shift to FCF burn. </li>
</ul>



Growatt Technology (1833969D CH), a leading PV inverters manufacturer, will seek a listing hearing for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO in October, according to press reports.
In Growatt Technology IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case. 
The key elements of the bear case rest on rising customer concentration risk, high dependence on Brazil for growth, limited pricing power and a shift to FCF burn. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/growatt-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36103:1" rel="noopener">Growatt Technology (1833969D CH)</a>, a leading PV inverters manufacturer, will seek a listing hearing for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO in October, according to press reports.</li>
<li>According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in 2021, Growatt was the third-largest player in the global PV inverter market with a 6.8% market share in shipments. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on a large market, improving sector market sentiment, and sector-leading revenue growth and profitability.</li>
</ul>



Growatt Technology (1833969D CH), a leading PV inverters manufacturer, will seek a listing hearing for a US$1 billion HKEx IPO in October, according to press reports.
According to Frost &amp; Sullivan, in 2021, Growatt was the third-largest player in the global PV inverter market with a 6.8% market share in shipments. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on a large market, improving sector market sentiment, and sector-leading revenue growth and profitability.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.</li>
<li>Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.</li>
<li>Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).</li>
</ul>


Broad global MSCI equity indexes (ACWI,ACWI ex-U.S.,EAFE, and EM) remain bearish with YTD downtrends intact. Until these indexes reverse downtrends, we are bearish and view bounces as bear market rallies.
Major non-U.S. countries appear to be much further along in the bottoming process, a potential sign that U.S. indexes could take a back seat once global equities finally bottom.
Indexes that have not made a new low since March: Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small, Hang Seng, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50, and China's MSCI China (MCHI-US) and China Internet (KWEB-US).


Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There are 28 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX)</a> at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.</li>
<li>We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.</li>
<li>There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.</li>
</ul>


There are 28 changes for the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (SHSZ300 INDEX) at the upcoming rebalance that will be implemented at the close of trading on 9 June.
We had forecast nearly all the changes, though the index committee seems to have used discretion in deciding not to add three Distillers to the index, leading to other changes.
There's a large sector skew with Industrials, Information Technology and Materials stocks taking 17 more spots in the index, while Health Care and Financials lose 9 and 5 spots respectively.


CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

<ul>
<li>We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.</li>
<li>Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.</li>
</ul>


We expect the maximum permitted 30 changes at a single review to take place at the June rebalance. Most changes are high probability.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.25% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 10.677bn.
Industrials, Information Technology and Materials sectors are expected to have the most net inclusions, while Health Care and Financials are expected to have the most net deletions.


CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

China

Ginlong Technologies Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes solar inverters. The Company produces single phase inverters, three phase inverters, utility scale inverters, energy storage inverters, and other related products. Ginlong Technologies conducts businesses worldwide.

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Ginlong Technologies (300763 CH)

Growatt Technology IPO: The Bear Case

The bear case's key elements are rising customer concentration risk, high dependence on Brazil for growth, limited pricing power and a shift to FCF...

Arun George

Growatt Technology IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on a large market, improving sector market sentiment, and sector-leading revenue growth and profitability.

Arun George

Hang Seng, MSCI China Near Major Base Breakouts; Bottoms-Up Stock Rec's in Hong Kong, China, & Japan

Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's $MCHI and $KWEB are near major base breakouts. We are watching is 22,700 on Hang Seng and $56.60 on MCHI; we are...

Vermilion Research

CSI300 Index Rebalance: Big Sector Shift with 28 Changes

The June rebalance of the CSI300 Index will have 28 changes, a large sector skew, one-way turnover of 4.11% and a one-way trade of CNY 10bn. The...

Brian Freitas

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: 30 Potential Changes as Sector Rotation Continues

We forecast 30 changes at the June rebalance for the CSI300 Index - most high probability. Industrials, IT and Materials sectors will have net...

Brian Freitas

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