New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Guidance upgrade driven mainly by swapping out high cost generation for low cost generation</li><li>Pushing harder into the retail market</li><li>Forecast changes reflect strong 1Q23 performance and lift in medium-term wholesale electricity price outlook</li></ul>

Guidance upgrade driven mainly by swapping out high cost generation for low cost generationPushing harder into the retail marketForecast changes reflect strong 1Q23 performance and lift in medium-term wholesale electricity price outlook

Genesis Energy: Hydro for Coal Swap Turbo Charges 1Q23

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 prices</li><li>Cold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plant</li><li>If the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive</li></ul>

First trading of 2026 ASX futures shows only a small decline from 2025 pricesCold snap at the beginning of September 2022 highlights the need for gas-peaking plantIf the fixed interest market is right, electricity stocks are expensive

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

<ul><li>Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%</li><li>August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealed</li><li>New GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices</li></ul>

Electricity share prices have not responded to lift in interest rates: The 10-year swap rate is back above 4.0%, ending August at 4.1% and is currently 4.3%August 2022 rounded off a wet winter, bigger development pipelines revealedNew GNE market security option (MSO) unlikely to excite the market, but may lift peak wholesale electricity prices

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

<ul><li>Good result in line with expectations — positive but more volatile earnings outlook</li><li>Kupe drilling decision not fixed, could trigger sale</li><li>FutureGen strategy strikes challenges — still awaiting solar announcement and Mercury deal less certain</li></ul>

Good result in line with expectations — positive but more volatile earnings outlookKupe drilling decision not fixed, could trigger saleFutureGen strategy strikes challenges — still awaiting solar announcement and Mercury deal less certain

Genesis Energy: Back to Future on Volatility — FY22 Result

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genex-power-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29079:1" rel="noopener">Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU)</a> received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.</li>
<li>The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. </li>
<li>The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    </li>
</ul>



Genex Power Ltd (GNX AU) received an improved non-binding offer from Skip Capital/Stonepeak at A$0.25 per share, an 8.7% bump from the previously rejected A$0.23 offer.
The headcount test is emerging as a key risk as retail shareholders are voicing their displeasure. The offer is underwhelming based on precedent transactions and average sell-side price targets. 
The Board hopes that granting non-exclusive due diligence and stating an intention to recommend a binding A$0.25 offer will force rival bidders to kickstart an auction.    


Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy: Hydro for Coal Swap Turbo Charges 1Q23

Genesis Energy (GNE) has benefitted from record high 1Q23 North Island hydro generation and low spot wholesale electricity prices to lift FY23...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Wild Wholesale Price Ride — October 2022

The cold snap in early September 2022 resulted in wild wholesale electricity price fluctuations, highlighting the market would benefit from more...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points: Lakes and Valuations Full— September 2022

The big wet hit August 2022, resulting in hydro storage hitting an all time high (170% of average) for this time of year, which in turn suppressed...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy: Back to Future on Volatility — FY22 Result

Genesis Energy's FY22 result was a good one, with EBITDAF of NZ$440m in line with expectations and at the top end of its guidance range

Forsyth Barr

Genex Gets an Improved A$0.25 Offer, Headcount Test a Risk, Board Hoping for an Auction

Maintain holding or buy with the view of a potential rival bid or that the risk of the headcount test forces Skip/Stonepeak to further bump their...

Arun George

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