UK: Workers Demand Forceful Tightening
The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% and no longer looks likely to rise into yearend. Pay trends are inconsistent with the inflation target,...
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UK: Retail Rebounds to Still-Bleak Trends
Retail sales rebounded with working days after the Queen’s funeral. It also appeared to draw support from Amazon’s Prime Early Access sale. Rate...
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UK: Labour Fits the Fall Season
The UK unemployment rate surprisingly jumped to 3.6% in Sep-22. An earlier turn means it tracks a rise about 0.1pp above the BoE view. We still see...
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UK: Housing Market Skids Toward a Crash
Surveys confirm anecdotal evidence of a severe shock hitting the UK housing market. We now assume a 5% price decline but see the market on the cusp...
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UK: Retail Mourns Funeral with Closures
A worse retail crash for the state funeral holiday cut another tenth from our Sep-22 GDP forecast to -0.4% m-o-m but leaves Q3 at -0.5% q-o-q in...
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