Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Nov-22, and another rise into yearend no longer looks likely. Resilience should ease in Q1 amid vacancies’ renewed declines.</li>
<li>Relatively stable unemployment and rising wage settlements suggest the cycle is not yet burning out. Pay growth trends remain inconsistent with the inflation target.</li>
<li>Monetary policy faces a double threat from excessive inflation expectations and cyclical pressures. We still expect another forceful (50bp) response in February.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Nov-22, and another rise into yearend no longer looks likely. Resilience should ease in Q1 amid vacancies’ renewed declines.
Relatively stable unemployment and rising wage settlements suggest the cycle is not yet burning out. Pay growth trends remain inconsistent with the inflation target.
Monetary policy faces a double threat from excessive inflation expectations and cyclical pressures. We still expect another forceful (50bp) response in February.


UK: Workers Demand Forceful Tightening