Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Retail Rebounds to Still-Bleak Trends

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK retail sales massively undershot a naively optimistic consensus by crashing 1% m-o-m in Dec-22, extending its steep trend decline.</li>
<li>High inflationary impulses continue to squeeze real incomes, so retailer reports of high nominal spending still erode into falling festive sales volumes.</li>
<li>Depressed consumers anticipate another bleak year, but their attempts to avoid that with wage rises are stoking problematic second-round effects that push BoE rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales massively undershot a naively optimistic consensus by crashing 1% m-o-m in Dec-22, extending its steep trend decline.
High inflationary impulses continue to squeeze real incomes, so retailer reports of high nominal spending still erode into falling festive sales volumes.
Depressed consumers anticipate another bleak year, but their attempts to avoid that with wage rises are stoking problematic second-round effects that push BoE rate hikes.


UK: Unfestive Sales Volumes in 2022