Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As expected, the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Dec-22 but will probably hit 3.8% in Jan-23 because the underlying 3-month trend rise has returned to 0.2pp.</li>
<li>Demand remains too high, with weekly vacancies stabilising up at Sep-22 levels. Pay deals are also settling at 5%, boosting weekly pay despite workers off on strikes.</li>
<li>Cyclical tightness and excessive inflation expectations push the BoE to keep raising rates, albeit by 25bps rather than a “forceful” 50bp now rates are so high.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the UK unemployment rate remained at 3.7% in Dec-22 but will probably hit 3.8% in Jan-23 because the underlying 3-month trend rise has returned to 0.2pp.
Demand remains too high, with weekly vacancies stabilising up at Sep-22 levels. Pay deals are also settling at 5%, boosting weekly pay despite workers off on strikes.
Cyclical tightness and excessive inflation expectations push the BoE to keep raising rates, albeit by 25bps rather than a “forceful” 50bp now rates are so high.


UK: Cyclical Turn Is Taking Too Long