Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.</li>
<li>This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.</li>
<li>Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.</li>
</ul>


Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.
This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.
Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.


UK: Inflation Incinerating BoE Hopes