Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.</li><li>Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.</li><li>The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.</li></ul>

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.Raising rates by 50 bps was a step in the right direction.The headline June and July CPI may appear lower due to the base effect of Energy prices.

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Bias/Focus: AUD short (and NZD), Euro maturing wedge. USD/JPY long from 130 (policy push). USD/ZAR bull. Sterling long from 1.2450 gaining traction.</li>
<li>Commodity currencies and the USD/JPY have been our USD positive bets hidden within the DXY slide. Within EM, USD/ZAR is out top USD long theme. </li>
<li>The USD/KRW has been the weak performer within Asia outlined some fairly clear USD divisions. USD/SGD macro support at 1.32/31 is compelling.</li>
</ul>


Bias/Focus: AUD short (and NZD), Euro maturing wedge. USD/JPY long from 130 (policy push). USD/ZAR bull. Sterling long from 1.2450 gaining traction.
Commodity currencies and the USD/JPY have been our USD positive bets hidden within the DXY slide. Within EM, USD/ZAR is out top USD long theme. 
The USD/KRW has been the weak performer within Asia outlined some fairly clear USD divisions. USD/SGD macro support at 1.32/31 is compelling.


Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

<ul>
<li>UK retail retreated from its highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Warmth spared sales from a total washout.</li>
<li>This decline returns values to their upward trend while volumes are at their six-month average, consistent with our view that the volume trend has flatlined.</li>
<li>Second-Round effects support short-term activity and asset prices, including housing, where a crash looks to have been avoided. We still don’t expect substantial falls.</li>
</ul>


UK retail retreated from its highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Warmth spared sales from a total washout.
This decline returns values to their upward trend while volumes are at their six-month average, consistent with our view that the volume trend has flatlined.
Second-Round effects support short-term activity and asset prices, including housing, where a crash looks to have been avoided. We still don’t expect substantial falls.


<ul>
<li>Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.</li>
<li>This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.</li>
<li>Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.</li>
</ul>


Inflation slowed by less than expected in Mar-23 to 10.1% on the CPI (RPI 13.5%). That 0.3pp CPI surprise (14bps for us) worryingly follows a 0.5pp miss last month.
This upside news was painfully broad-based again as services and core inflation ran hot. The underlying monthly impulse is resisting a return toward target-consistent rates.
Excessive pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s forecast incinerating their dovish hopes. We still expect another 25bps hike in May.


<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate increased back to 3.8% in Feb-23 as an unusually actively unemployed cohort joined the sample. The underlying trend remains broadly flat.</li>
<li>Vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown.</li>
<li>Settlements are anchoring around 5%, with a skew up, fuelling problematic second-round effects. We maintain our call for the BoE to hike by another 25bp in May.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate increased back to 3.8% in Feb-23 as an unusually actively unemployed cohort joined the sample. The underlying trend remains broadly flat.
Vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown.
Settlements are anchoring around 5%, with a skew up, fuelling problematic second-round effects. We maintain our call for the BoE to hike by another 25bp in May.


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP Crosses, Banks and Rates

The Core Core CPI is currently at 7.1% and persistently high. The Bank of England is facing a difficult situation with no simple solutions.

Untying The Gordian Knot

USD Long and Short Positioning

Bias/Focus: AUD short (and NZD), Euro maturing wedge. USD/JPY long from 130 (policy push). USD/ZAR bull. Sterling long from 1.2450 gaining...

Thomas Schroeder

UK: Sales Soaked in Mar-23

UK retail retreated from highs in Mar-23 as the most unseasonably persistent March rain since 1914 soaked sales. Volumes are at their six-month...

Phil Rush

UK: Inflation Incinerating BoE Hopes

Excessive UK inflationary pressures are proving painfully resilient, with a 0.9pp surprise to the BoE’s February forecast incinerating their dovish...

Phil Rush

UK: Wages Reflate Hawkish Pressure

UK vacancies are high, encouraging firms to pay up to hire and retain staff. Revisions into rapid Feb-23 wage growth remove signs of a slowdown. We...

Phil Rush

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