External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.</li><li>Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.</li><li>The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.Overall, the DXY registered a down year in 2023, losing around 4% overall after two years of solid gains.The holiday period has been relatively quiet. The JPY and CHF have tended to outperform since the 24th while sterling and the EUR are relative underperformers among the majors—but are effectively little changed since just before the holiday break. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.</li><li>The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.</li><li>The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Not quite the night before Christmas and some things are still stirring across markets ahead of the holidays.The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing on the USD.The EUR has risen through recent peaks to trade at its best level since August. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.</li><li>These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.</li><li>Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.</li></ul>

From the fresh IFO report details (on prices, orders and employment intentions), the majority of industries expect exports to decline in the months ahead.These include automakers, who had recently been assuming that exports would remain constant.Manufacturers of machinery and equipment are also expecting fewer orders from abroad, while energy-intensive industries such as the chemical, metal and construction industries are having a particularly tough time at the moment.

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

<ul><li>We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the recent payroll data and waning price pressures has been in our favor.</li><li>We see CPI headline -0.25% MoM, core -0.15% MoM and Services -0.15% MoM in rounded figures, well below consensus</li><li>The path to 2% looks much more doable now than it did just 1 month ago in the UK given base effects</li></ul>

We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the recent payroll data and waning price pressures has been in our favor.We see CPI headline -0.25% MoM, core -0.15% MoM and Services -0.15% MoM in rounded figures, well below consensusThe path to 2% looks much more doable now than it did just 1 month ago in the UK given base effects

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

FX Daily - Oversold USD Rebounds

The USD ended 2023 on a soft note, but a little off the low made on December 28th which was the lowest the DXY traded at since July.

Scotiabank

FX Daily - USD Slides Ahead of Data

The USD is broadly weaker versus the major currencies as markets position ahead of this morning’s data round. Month-end flows may also be weighing...

Scotiabank

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

IFO Nugget: Recession and Target Inflation?

There is no way around the fact that, no matter how many officials refrain from admitting it, Germany and central economies in Europe are in, at...

Steno Research

UK CPI Watch – A Deflationary Shock?

We recently entered a long UK duration trade in anticipation of further disinflation in the UK, which so far has been a winning trade as the...

Steno Research

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