Japan TMT Analyst

Pelham Smithers

Market Intel on Asian Tech with a Japan focus

Pelham Smithers Associates

Founded in 2009, Pelham Smithers Associates (PSA) provides market intelligence on Asian technology, focusing in particular on Japan. The industries covered by our team of specialists are: consumer electronics, telecomms, pharmaceuticals, internet, electronic parts and materials, automotive technology, retail and capital goods. 

Research is provided by the following:
Pelham Smithers: Macro, consumer electronics, telecoms & pharma
Joel Scheiman: Electronics materials / components
Julie Boote: Autos
Will Nestuk: Capital goods, machinery & transportation equipment parts
Thao Nguyen: eCommerce, internet content, marketing & advertising

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on demand and, separately, on potential supply. The longer term one will depend largely on the policy response. Any decline in demand can in principle be offset by a lower exchange rate or by fiscal or monetary stimulus. A reduction in potential supply can only be offset, after a delay, by increased investment. This is therefore the key challenge and policy success will be determined by the extent to which investment is stimulated and adequate long- term growth thereby assured. In addition, there is also likely to be a reduction in living standards through a deterioration in the terms of trade as a result of weaker sterling, but this was in any event likely as the exchange rate appeared overvalued before the vote.  

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize the UK economy.  This contrasts with the bumbling Bank of Japan that has enacted the most aggressive monetary easing policy in history only to see monetary conditions perversely tighten. The BoJ have failed to manage expectations and communicate a clear policy agenda.  They have let critical voices grow louder without response to the point where they appear to be gaining control. This uncertainty has already resulted in a rise in JGB yields and renewed gains in the JPY.  The uncertainty over policy direction may well push JPY to new highs.  The signs are not good that the BoJ will turn the corner, because it appears to have forgotten how QQE/NIRP is supposed to work and may back-track rather than double-down.  We look at the conundrum faced by then BoJ, what it may do if the critics win and what it should do to regain the initiative.

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize the UK economy.  This contrasts with the bumbling Bank of Japan that has enacted the most aggressive monetary easing policy in history only to see monetary conditions perversely tighten. The BoJ have failed to manage expectations and communicate a clear policy agenda.  They have let critical voices grow louder without response to the point where they appear to be gaining control. This uncertainty has already resulted in a rise in JGB yields and renewed gains in the JPY.  The uncertainty over policy direction may well push JPY to new highs.  The signs are not good that the BoJ will turn the corner, because it appears to have forgotten how QQE/NIRP is supposed to work and may back-track rather than double-down.  We look at the conundrum faced by then BoJ, what it may do if the critics win and what it should do to regain the initiative.

AmpGFX - BoE Shines, BoJ Needs to Regain the Initiative

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 <div>FX Positioning</div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1470398063368000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH-b3sVV-q1HVVNbCD03mpWAOJplA">http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR</a> 5:32 min.<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/353/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1470311712" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11353"><figcaption class="figcaption">FX positioning</figcaption></figure>GBP 1.3280 short starting to pay off with BOE's rate cut. 1.3070 is the support to break for a re test of 1.29. Uptick resistance firm at 1.3240. This may set in motion pricing in off a series of rate cuts that may very well get us closer to the projection at 1.2735.
</div><div>
USD/KRW - Fresh dollar short touted near 1,120 thus short from 1,119 with a stop at…</div>

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 FX PositioningTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR 5:32 min.
FX positioningGBP 1.3280 short starting to pay off with BOE's rate cut. 1.3070 is the support to break for a re test of 1.29. Uptick resistance firm at 1.3240. This may set in motion pricing in off a series of rate cuts that may very well get us closer to the projection at 1.2735.

USD/KRW - Fresh dollar short touted near 1,120 thus short from 1,119 with a stop at…

Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

As we had flagged before the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/forex-focus-audgbp-potential-for-downard-reversal" target="_blank">RBA decision</a>, top-heavy GBP shorts toppled following the rate cut announcement, even though AUDUSD rebounded, vindicating the choice of this currency pair to focus on the short-term move (see below charts).Now however, there are risks ahead of the upcoming Bank of England meeting. At their last meeting, fresh from Brexit turmoil, the BoE kept calm, carried on and <a href="http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/news/2016/007.aspx" target="_blank">held rates steady</a>, unwilling to acknowledge to market panic.  It would appear inconsistent to take a…

As we had flagged before the RBA decision, top-heavy GBP shorts toppled following the rate cut announcement, even though AUDUSD rebounded, vindicating the choice of this currency pair to focus on the short-term move (see below charts).Now however, there are risks ahead of the upcoming Bank of England meeting. At their last meeting, fresh from Brexit turmoil, the BoE kept calm, carried on and held rates steady, unwilling to acknowledge to market panic.  It would appear inconsistent to take a…

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/099/original/AUDGBP-Lhs-AUDGBP-Jan-2015-100_chartbuilder.png?1470063993" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11099"><figcaption class="figcaption">Source:RBA</figcaption></figure> Although it is widely expected that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25bps on Thursday for the first time in seven years (and possibly restart quantitative easing), there is greater uncertainty about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower rates on Tuesday (2 August) from 1.75% to another record low of 1.5%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/108/original/RBA-cash-rate-targetPer-cent-RBA-cash-rate-targetPer-cent_chartbuilder%20%281%29.png?1470065046" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11108"></figure> The ASX’s RBA rate indicator shows a 68% chance of a rate cut versus 32% probability of no change; the indicator rebounded following the release of…

Source:RBA Although it is widely expected that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25bps on Thursday for the first time in seven years (and possibly restart quantitative easing), there is greater uncertainty about whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will lower rates on Tuesday (2 August) from 1.75% to another record low of 1.5%. The ASX’s RBA rate indicator shows a 68% chance of a rate cut versus 32% probability of no change; the indicator rebounded following the release of…

Forex Focus: AUDGBP – Potential for Downard Reversal

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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The UK Economy - After Brexit

The vote to leave the European Union will have both shorter and longer term impacts on the UK economy. There will be a shorter term impact on...

Pelham Smithers Associates

AmpGFX - BoE Shines, BoJ Needs to Regain the Initiative

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize...

Greg Gibbs

GBP Short and Finessing a USD/JPY Low

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 FX PositioningTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR 5:32 min. GBP 1.3280...

Thomas Schroeder

AUDGBP: Now, Beware "Sledgehammer"

As we had flagged before the RBA decision, top-heavy GBP shorts toppled following the rate cut announcement, even though AUDUSD rebounded,...

Naomi Fink

Forex Focus: AUDGBP – Potential for Downard Reversal

Although it is widely expected that the Bank of England will cut rates by 25bps on Thursday for the first time in seven years (and possibly...

Naomi Fink

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