Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.</li><li>For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.</li><li>Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.</li></ul>

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.For example, the yield on 2-year Treasury bonds has increased by 52 basis points (bps), and the yield on 10-year bonds has risen by 49 bps since their respective lows.Similarly, the Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of other currencies, experienced its weakest point on December 28th, 2023.

US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch.</li><li>Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming in substantially hotter than expected, but equity sentiment has remained decent outside of some profit taking in Tech, as the cocktail of better liquidity conditions and a brightening economic outlook is likely to prevail – and positioning provides very decent opportunities to trade the potential comeback for cyclical assets.</li><li>As this week’s chart of the week we present to you what looks to be the theme of Q1 2024, and the reason why right now is not a good time to be contrarian: momentum is king, and “go with the flow” currently performs WAY better than cherry-picking the good old value stocks.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch.Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming in substantially hotter than expected, but equity sentiment has remained decent outside of some profit taking in Tech, as the cocktail of better liquidity conditions and a brightening economic outlook is likely to prevail – and positioning provides very decent opportunities to trade the potential comeback for cyclical assets.As this week’s chart of the week we present to you what looks to be the theme of Q1 2024, and the reason why right now is not a good time to be contrarian: momentum is king, and “go with the flow” currently performs WAY better than cherry-picking the good old value stocks.

Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>The USD is trading a bit more mixed as the dust settles after yesterday’s US CPI shocker.</li><li>Higher than expected prices drove US yields sharply higher, with the 10Y trading well through the 4.20% area that has capped yields recently, supporting broad USD gains.</li><li>Markets generally have steadied this morning; bond yields have retreated somewhat, with Gilts outperforming strongly after UK price data came in weaker than expected, while stocks are trading mostly higher. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The USD is trading a bit more mixed as the dust settles after yesterday’s US CPI shocker.Higher than expected prices drove US yields sharply higher, with the 10Y trading well through the 4.20% area that has capped yields recently, supporting broad USD gains.Markets generally have steadied this morning; bond yields have retreated somewhat, with Gilts outperforming strongly after UK price data came in weaker than expected, while stocks are trading mostly higher. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed After CPI-Driven Jump

<ul><li>It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.</li><li>The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.</li><li>The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

It’s a rather tentative start to the week for markets overall. After fresh highs for the S&amp;P 500 last week, European stocks are advancing modestly (Japan and China were closed today) while bonds are mostly firmer; US 10Y yields are down 1- 2bps while European debt has shed 4-6bps across the major markets.The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.The NZD is at the foot of the intraday performance table, giving up some of the gains made late last week on speculation that the RBNZ would tighten rates a bit more in the coming weeks. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

<ul>
<li>Welcome to this short and sweet preview of the UK CPI report on Wednesday.</li>
<li>The focus point will be the Services CPI since the BoE keeps referring directly to this number in the communication around the possible policy pivot.</li>
<li>UK Services inflation is extremely seasonal, and December vs. January patterns are always interesting. The market is betting on a sharp deflation in Services (non-seasonally-adjusted) in December of -0.6%.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to this short and sweet preview of the UK CPI report on Wednesday.
The focus point will be the Services CPI since the BoE keeps referring directly to this number in the communication around the possible policy pivot.
UK Services inflation is extremely seasonal, and December vs. January patterns are always interesting. The market is betting on a sharp deflation in Services (non-seasonally-adjusted) in December of -0.6%.


UK CPI Nugget: Is something wrong with services?

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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US Dollar: Trend Reversal or Start of Bull Run

U.S. interest rates have been climbing since early January 2024 after reaching their lowest points between December 27th and January 11th.

Untying The Gordian Knot

Positioning Watch – Low FX volatility provides cheap leverage for a rebound in manufacturing

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch. Markets were caught on the wrong side of expectations last week with PPI coming...

Steno Research

FX Daily - USD Mixed After CPI-Driven Jump

Higher than expected prices drove US yields sharply higher, with the 10Y trading well through the 4.20% area that has capped yields recently,...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - Flat USD Looks to CPI for Direction

The USD itself is mixed; the NOK and SEK are slight outperformers on the session, with the MXN also picking up some support.

Scotiabank

UK CPI Nugget: Is something wrong with services?

Welcome to this short and sweet preview of the UK CPI report on Wednesday. The focus point will be the Services CPI since the BoE keeps referring...

Steno Research

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