Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Hygon Information Technology C / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we see 9 stocks in inclusion zone and 10 in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.</li>
<li>We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.7% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.86bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>Apart from being added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-stock-exchange-sse-50-a-share-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31073:1" rel="noopener">SSE50 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hygon-information-technology-c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36366:1" rel="noopener">Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH)</a> could also be added to other local/global indices over the next few weeks and months.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we see 9 stocks in inclusion zone and 10 in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 4.7% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 3.86bn. Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
Apart from being added to the SSE50 Index, Hygon Information Technology (688041 CH) could also be added to other local/global indices over the next few weeks and months.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.</li>
<li>The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.</li>
<li>NORTHBOUND saw net inflow for the first time in three months. Small at RMB 557mm, but positive.</li>
</ul>


This is the somewhat-brand-spanking-new Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. We work off the same presentation as the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor.
The same five names continue at the top of the gross flows list - Kweichow Moutai, Contemporary Amperex, Wuliangye Yibin, Foxconn Industrial, and BYD. Nets are dropping.
NORTHBOUND saw net inflow for the first time in three months. Small at RMB 557mm, but positive.


Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 3rd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$100.5 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care sectors, and offset by industrials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, China Yangtze Power, Maxscend Microelectronics, Mindray, Wuliangye, BYD.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 3rd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$100.5 million, led by consumer staples, information technology, health care sectors, and offset by industrials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for Moutai, China Yangtze Power, Maxscend Microelectronics, Mindray, Wuliangye, BYD.


Northbound Flows (Nov 3rd): Moutai, China Yangtze Power, Maxscend Microelectronics, Mindray

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown.</li>
<li>3Q revenue increased 4% YoY /8% QoQ to US$5.8bn driven by record sales of server CPU and strong Ryzen processor sales.</li>
<li>GPM improved 1ppt YoY to 51% and EPS increased 4% YoY to US$0.7, mainly driven by strong client segment and better product mix.</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown.
3Q revenue increased 4% YoY /8% QoQ to US$5.8bn driven by record sales of server CPU and strong Ryzen processor sales.
GPM improved 1ppt YoY to 51% and EPS increased 4% YoY to US$0.7, mainly driven by strong client segment and better product mix.

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Technology – Implications of AMD 3Q23: PC Recovery and AI PC Opportunities

Taiwan

Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. operates as a communication network equipment development company. The Company develops and sells network switches, routers, wireless devices, web servers, set top boxes, smart home gateways, and other products. Foxconn Industrial Internet also manufactures storage equipment.

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Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH)

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Five Potential Changes; Hygon Stands Out

There should be 5 index changes in Dec. Hygon has been outperforming with inflows from multiple passive inflows expected in the next month. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 3Nov23): First Week of Net Buying in 3mos

Northbound Connect flows were positive for the first time in three months last week. Top stocks saw the same. Watch for more jawboning on short...

Travis Lundy

Northbound Flows (Nov 3rd): Moutai, China Yangtze Power, Maxscend Microelectronics, Mindray

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, China Yangtze Power, Maxscend...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

China Technology – Implications of AMD 3Q23: PC Recovery and AI PC Opportunities

AMD’s 3Q23 results were largely in line with market expectations, despite its weaker 4Q23 guidance on gaming slowdown. 3Q revenue increased 4% YoY...

CMB International

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