Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Foxconn Industrial Internet / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." </li>
<li>We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.</li>
<li>Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.</li>
</ul>


Not much has changed since our latest Int'l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled "Buy the Pullback." 
We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.


Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.</li>
<li>TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.</li>
<li>Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia will report its earnings today U.S.-time, we outline the key Taiwan AI supply chain names to watch around the earnings.
TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance despite media reports questioning whether a further downgrade was coming.
Hon Hai produces over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware according to media reports.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wistron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2189:1" rel="noopener">Wistron Corp (3231 TT)</a> is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.</li>
<li>On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.</li>
<li>Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.</li>
</ul>



Wistron Corp (3231 TT) is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming global depository receipts (GDRs) offering.
On 2nd Apr 2025, Wistron announced that it had received its board’s approval to sell up to 250m common shares via a GDR offering.
Similar to previous GDR listings, the deal is a long drawn out process with the firm required to jump through a number of board/shareholder/regulatory approval loops.


Wistron GDR Early Look - Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Nvidia (NVDA, NR) disclosed that the U.S. government informed on April 9 that H20 chips will require a license for export to China and other D:5 countries, and the new requirement will be in place indefinitely.</li><li>Driven by DeepSeek’s lowcost AI models since late Jan, we see accelerated deployments of H20 servers in China, and several server ODM/component suppliers also guided strong order demand from Chinese CSPs for H20-related products.</li><li>In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k H20 AI servers (8 chips/ server). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Nvidia (NVDA, NR) disclosed that the U.S. government informed on April 9 that H20 chips will require a license for export to China and other D:5 countries, and the new requirement will be in place indefinitely.Driven by DeepSeek’s lowcost AI models since late Jan, we see accelerated deployments of H20 servers in China, and several server ODM/component suppliers also guided strong order demand from Chinese CSPs for H20-related products.In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k H20 AI servers (8 chips/ server). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Technology - Implications of Nvidia H20 export restriction for AI server/component supply chain

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.</li>
</ul>


With nearly 90% of the review period complete, 2 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 3 constituents are in deletion zone.
We estimate one-way turnover of 4.7% at the June rebalance leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn (US$2.27bn). Index arb balances will increase the impact on the stocks.
The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last 6 months but there has been a retracement in returns over the last month.


SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

Taiwan

Foxconn Industrial Internet Co., Ltd. operates as a communication network equipment development company. The Company develops and sells network switches, routers, wireless devices, web servers, set top boxes, smart home gateways, and other products. Foxconn Industrial Internet also manufactures storage equipment.

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Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH)

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight $FEZ $STOXX; Europe Still Bullish From a Price Perspective; Bullish Outlook Intact on $ACWI $EEM; Supports...

Vermilion Research

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Key Supply Chain Names to Watch for Nvidia's Earnings Today

Also -- TSMC has maintained its full-year revenue guidance and Hon Hai is said to produce over 50% of Nvidia's AI hardware.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Wistron GDR Early Look - Riding the AI Server Boom Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds

Wistron Corporation is looking to raise up to US$760m in its upcoming GDRs offering. Wistron announced of its board’s approval to sell up to 250m...

Akshat Shah

Technology - Implications of Nvidia H20 export restriction for AI server/component supply chain

In terms of impact, we estimate Nvidia’s inventory writedown of US$5.5bn implies US$14bn sales (GPM 60%), 1.1mn H20 chips (ASP US$12.5k) and 138k...

CMB International

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Three Changes; Some Misses

There could be 3 changes in June. Estimated one-way turnover is 4.7% leading to a round-trip trade of CNY 16.4bn. The adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

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